Name: High Wind in Arizona, December 15, 2021
Start: 2021-12-15T00:30
End: 2021-12-15T05:00
Location: Arizona

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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Heat and drought
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Fire, smoke and dust
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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $1,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

An upper level trough of low pressure and an associated mid level wind maximum across southeast Arizona resulted in high winds, especially downwind of the Huachuca Mountains in Cochise County. No significant damage was reported.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 14, 2:38 PM MST, 9 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 14, 2:38 PM MST, 9 hours 52 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
238 PM MST Tue Dec 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A strong weather system and associated cold front
will approach today, passing across the local area overnight
tonight into Wednesday morning. This will lead to increased winds
this afternoon and tonight as well as chances for showers and
higher elevation snow. Colder air will move in on Wednesday with
high temperatures dropping well below average. Near normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar shows a few light showers just east and north
of Tucson this afternoon. This shower activity will continue
mainly to the north and east of Tucson through the afternoon. Hi-
res guidance then shows a small lull in shower activity with the
exception of the White Mountains this evening. As this is
happening a long wave trough will be moving into Arizona along
with a frontal boundary. This will tighten our pressure gradient
leading to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
area wide. Blowing dust could also be an issue along I-10 in Pinal
County as well as northeast Cochise County. Higher elevations
could see slightly higher speeds. As a result there is a wind
advisory in place through 5 AM MST Wednesday. The strongest winds
will occur during the overnight hours as the trough and cold front
move through. Model cross sections on the lee side of the
Huachuca Mountains and Dos Cabezas show the presence gravity
waves and favorable conditions for strong downslope winds. This
could lead to very strong winds with gusts up to 60-65 mph in the
Sierra Vista area and leeward side of the Huachuca Mountains. As a
result a High Wind Warning is in place for those areas.

Along with the wind the cold front will bring a band of light to
moderate showers tonight. Models are in good agreement with the
timing of the front. Showers will enter western Pima County
between 10-11 PM MST and make it to Tucson between 2-4 AM. The
line of showers begins to weaken after it passes Tucson as the
upper level low starts to move a little further northward and the
front weakens. Valley locations can expect around 0.1" with
mountains generally between 0.20"-0.5". Cochise County amounts
will likely be less. Snow levels will be around 8000 feet until
the tail end of the night with mountain peaks seeing around 1-2"
and a dusting down to 6000 feet.

Colder temperatures will move in behind this system Wednesday
leading to highs 6-10 degree below normal. Temperatures then
increase to around normal through the weekend. Morning
temperatures south and east of Tucson in valley locations will be
at or a few degree below freezing through the weekend. After
Wednesday morning expect dry conditions with just a couple passing
troughs to the north and south.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z. BKN-OVC clouds lowering to 8K-14k
ft MSL this afternoon. Strong SLY/SWLY SFC winds of 20-30 kts with
gusts above 40 kts will develop aft 15/02Z and continue thru the end
of the forecast period. Strongest winds gusts will be near and along
northern/eastern slopes of mtns with gusts 50-60 kts possible. A
cold front moving through Southeast Arizona tonight will bring
isolated-scattered -SHRA and mtn -SHSN. As this occurs, BKN-OVC
clouds with ceilings lowering to 2-6k ft AGL and MVFR conditions
will be possible. Aviation not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front passing through Southeast Arizona tonight will result
in isolated to scattered showers across the valleys with mountain
snow. The most impactful element to this front will be the strong
winds. Southwest winds will increase this evening ahead of this
system with widespread speeds of 20 to 30 mph gusting over 40 mph.
Strongest winds are expected after midnight over the higher
elevations and on eastern slopes including the Sierra Vista area.
Gusts up to 65 mph will be possible. Winds will decrease and shift
to the west behind the exiting cold front Wednesday morning with
noticeably colder air moving in. RH values will remain above
critical thresholds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ507-513.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ501>515.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ505.

&&

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When: December 15, 12:30 AM MST to 5:00 AM MST
Where: Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Measured: 59 kt (68 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

High winds buffeted southwest Cochise County during the early morning hours of December 15. Sustained winds over 40 mph and wind gusts of 50 to just shy of 70 mph were measured at a number of observing sites for several hours. The highest gust recorded was 68 mph on the southwest side of Sierra Vista at 0124MST.

High Wind, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When: December 15, 12:30 AM MST to 5:00 AM MST
Where: Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Measured: 58 kt (67 mph) measured gust
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A trained spotter downwind of the Pinaleno Mountain's Stockton Pass near Highway 191 reported minor tree damage in the area and a peak wind gust of 67 mph at 0339MST.

What these are

High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, December 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 989365, 989369.