Low pressure moving from the western Gulf of Alaska into the western Interior brought strong southerly flow across the eastern Alaska Range, resulting in strong Chinook winds along the north side of the mountains.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
Low pressure moving from the western Gulf of Alaska into the western Interior brought strong southerly flow across the eastern Alaska Range, resulting in strong Chinook winds along the north side of the mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 30, 4:56 AM AKST, 5 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 556 AM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An active weekend is expected across northern Alaska. A weather system moving in from the south will spread snow across the Western Interior and parts of the west coast. This system will bring heavy snow to parts of the western half of the forecast area. This same system will bring strong winds to the Alaska Range today, with breezy winds developing elsewhere around the Interior. Tonight strong winds will develop in the Brooks Range. A strong surface low will strengthen in the Chukchi Sea on Sunday resulting in high surf along the Chukchi Sea Coast Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... The 30/00 UTC models generally initialized well when compared to observational data. The models have come into better agreement with the system bringing snow to the western half of the forecast area, especially through tonight. There are still some model QPF differences in the short term. Placement differences also start to show up by Sunday night as the precipitation starts to push to the east across the Interior. For the PoP forecast, we nudged the inherited forecast grids to the SREF, mainly to bring up the values slightly as the areal coverage was in good shape. For the wind forecast we nudged the inherited forecast grids to the NAM, with a number of hand edits as well. Aloft at 500 mb, a 509 dam low is currently in place over the Chukotsk Peninsula, while a 519 dam low is in the North Pacific just south of the Alaksa Peninsula. The low in the North Pacific will push north into Bristol Bay by this evening before being absorbed into the low over the Chukotsk Peninsula. A shortwave associated with this low will move northward along the west coast on Sunday. Elsewhere, strong southerly flow aloft will dominate across most of the forecast area over the weekend with a ridge in place over the Yukon Territory. Southerly flow will persist over much of the area into early next week, although it will not be as strong as over the weekend. Central and Eastern Interior... Winds will be the main concern today. Strong southerly winds winds will develop today in the Alaska Range. Near passes, gusts up to 80 mph are anticipated late today into Sunday. Elsewhere across the Interior, breezy east to southeasterly winds are anticipated to develop today continuing into Sunday. The ongoing High Wind Warnings look to be in good shape, although we did adjust the end time of the warning for the Eastern Alaska Range. Some summits north of Fairbanks could see gusts up to 40 mph at times potentially resulting in blowing snow. For the area around Fairbanks, we anticipate easterly winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph late today into Sunday. With the Chinook pattern in place, we anticipate a significant increase in temperatures today, with many areas south of the Yukon River seeing highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Tomorrow will be even warmer, with most of the Interior seeing highs above 30 degrees. The forecast high temperature for today in Fairbanks is actually only a few degrees shy of the high temperature record. Temperatures on Monday will be cooler, but still above climatological normal. A front moving north over the Interior today will chances for snow today to areas north of Fairbanks. The area northwest of Tanana has the best likelihood of snow and will see 1 to 3 inches of snow today with this system. Chances for precipitation across the Interior will be limited on Sunday. A front moving from west to east across the area will bring chances for snow to the Central Interior Sunday night and the Eastern Interior on Monday. There is still a lot of model uncertainty with the details of this system as it moves across, especially with the timing. North Slope and Brooks Range... A system moving in from the south will cause winds in the Brooks Range to pick up this evening. By Sunday, we expect wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph near passes in the Brooks Range. Breezy winds are also anticipated over summits along the Dalton Highway. The Dalton highway will see blowing snow that will reduce the visibility at times, especially over summits and in Atigun Pass. Winds in the Brooks Range will diminish early Monday. The southerly flow will also cause a significant increase in temperatures. While highs today will only be in the teens to lower 20s, highs tomorrow will rise into the upper 20s to lower 30s. The western half of the Brooks Range has the potential to see a significant snowfall late today into Sunday. Snow will also spread northward over the Chukchi Sea Coast tonight, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible before snow tappers of from east to west on Sunday. Easterly winds will start to increase on Sunday morning as a surface low moves north along the West Coast. Winds will switch around to the west Sunday night as the surface low pushes north in the Chuckchi Sea bringing Gale Force winds to the coast from Utqiagvik west late Sunday night into Monday. As the winds pick up, blowing snow will develop Sunday night along the coast and will continue through the day on Monday. The low will continue to move to the north Monday night, winds across the Chukchi Sea Coast will become more southerly and will decrease. We did not make any changes to the Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern Brooks Range. West Coast and Western Interior... A weather system moving to the north will bring significant snowfall to parts of the West Coast and Western Interior through Sunday. Snow has already moved into the Upper Kuskokwim and Lower Yukon Valleys and will spread north during the day, reaching the Brooks Range by this evening. The precipitation will shift west covering the coast tonight and Sunday. The front will push east again back into the western Interior late Sunday and will continue moving east on Monday. There will be a decent amount of warm air pushing northward with this system. Going into this evening, snow levels across the Western Interior will rise, resulting in snow mixing with freezing rain or rain. The good news is during this same time the heaviest precipitation will shift westward. The best chances for freezing rain or rain to mix with the snow will be east of a line from Ambler to Nulato to Holy Cross. The lower Yukon Valley gets the worst of the snow with up to a foot of snow possible, with many other spots east of Elim seeing 4 to 10 inches of snow. Any mixed precipitation will cut into to snow accumulation. The potential for mixed precipitation results in higher than normal uncertainty for our snow amount forecast for the area east of the line mentioned above. Breezy east to northeasterly winds will develop over the Western Interior today, which will result in blowing snow at times. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are anticipated this afternoon into tonight. Winds will die down in the Western Interior Sunday and will shift to become westerly on Monday as the front pushes east. Breezy westerly winds are anticipated over Kotzebue Sound Sunday afternoon into early Monday resulting in blowing snow. Current thinking is that the gusty winds will arrive after the snow tapers off in the area. We will have to keep our eye on this area. We did not make any changes to the inherited warnings and advisories. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... High surf is expected along the Chukchi Sea Coast from Shishmaref to Point Hope Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph. We also anticipate high surf to the Arctic Coast from Cape Lisburne to Utqiagvik from late Sunday night until late Monday night with southwest winds 30 to 40 mph. There is some potential for elevated water levels along the southern coast of the Seward Peninsula late Monday into Tuesday as a surface low moves north through the Bering Sea. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... An active weather pattern will continue into the extended. Another strong low is expected to push north through the Bering Sea on Tuesday. This system has the potential to bring precipitation to the coast along with breezy winds. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the placement of this low at the moment. Strong easterly winds are anticipated along the Beaufort Sea Coast on Tuesday as the Pressure gradient tightens up over the area. This will bring blowing snow along the coast east of Utqiagvik. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ227. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ217. High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210. && OCT 21
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The OP5 weather station, part of the Ft. Greely mesonet reported a southerly wind gust to 84 mph. Other stations in the mesonet reported wind gusts between 70 to 80 mph. There were no known impacts from this wind event.
The Donnelly Dome weather station, part of the Ft. Greely mesonet reported a southerly wind gust to 84 mph. Other stations in the mesonet reported wind gusts between 70 to 80 mph, including Air Force Tower at 79 mph. There were no known impacts from this wind event.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 990370, 990372.