A front moved onshore, starting as wet snow that compacted easily. Through the event snow ratios increased dramatically and accumulated quicker.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A front moved onshore, starting as wet snow that compacted easily. Through the event snow ratios increased dramatically and accumulated quicker. Snowfall rates decreased after midnight, but snow showers continued for the next 15 hours a couple more inches of accumulation around Juneau.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 23, 5:21 AM AKST, 4 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
521 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021
.SHORT TERM.../Through Sun night/ Low clouds and drizzle/flurries
have been a common observation for the central and northern inner
channels overnight. Precip has been very light and intermittent
at times with little if any snow accumulation and no ice
accumulation even though temps are right around freezing
(Exception: Gustavus coop reported 0.7" of snow overnight at 5
am). A rather saturated boundary layer is responsible for the
precip and clouds as seen on upper air soundings, and satellite
cloud top phase products show liquid as the main phase that the
low clouds are in which accounts for the drizzle reports.
The drizzle/flurries should give way to more intense precip later
today as our next front moves into the panhandle. The outer coast
will likely see precip start up as early as late this morning
while the rest of the panhandle will see it start up by early
afternoon. Temperatures are cold enough (and with a decent amount
of cold air advecting in behind the front), that many places may
see snow, or at least a mix out of this front and the showers
post-front. The northern inner channels will be the most likely
places to see snow. However, there is not a lot of moisture
associated with this system so snow amounts will be low (1 to 4
inches) all told. Localized areas could see more accumulation,
especially with the rapid transition to showers behind the front
bringing the possibility of training showers or more intense
precip rates in localized areas.
Following this the associated low, that has been sitting near
Prince William sound will then slide SE along the outer coast Sun,
weakening as it comes. There will not be much as far as effects
from this low except that the remaining showers will diminish from
NW to SE in the wake of this feature.
Winds will be rather low across the panhandle during all of this.
The outside waters of the gulf is where most of the wind will be
with some leaking into the Cross Sound area and Southern Chatham
strait. Highest expected winds are 35 to 40 kt in the northern
and central gulf first from the front and then in the westerlies
behind the front.
Forecast confidence is moderate to high, though snow amounts will
be more moderate confidence based on the uncertainty on how the
shower activity post front will interact with the terrain and the
possibility of showers training over various areas.
.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/ As of 10pm Friday. Majority
of the extended forecast consists of high pressure building over
the Yukon predominately northerly outflow winds through the
inside waters. A low is progged to pass through the central gulf
Monday night, then looks to get shunted off to SE into Tuesday
morning. Latest models are more offshore with this system, so have
lowered POP to a chance/slight chance along the outer coast. As
the low moves south of the area, an inverted trough remains over
the inside waters. This, along with the building high pressure,
will cause a tightening pressure gradient along the Coast
Mountains. This is a dry pattern for SE Alaska, so have reduced
the POP forecast through the rest of the week.
The north wind looks to bring with it CAA. 850mb temps gradually
cool to around -20C along the northern border by Wednesday
morning and to around -10C over the south Wed night. This cold
air will help to drive the wind through interior passes. Have
increased speeds in N. Lynn Canal to 30kt on Tues and Wed, but if
model trends continue, may need to be increased to Gale force
35kt. The cold air and wind brings potential for freezing spray to
the forecast for the first time this year as well.
Another gulf low approaches towards the end of the week, but
latest models have delayed it until early Friday, then have it
shifting away to the SE again. This often happens with the
outflow winning out or being "blocked" at the upper levels from
making progress through an upper level ridge. For this reason,
have again kept POP below most guidance and continued with the
trend of cooling temperatures. Expect this to be the 1st real
"cold air outbreak" of the season and could easily last for the
standard 10 days or more.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-053.
&&
EAL/Ferrin
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Juneau AK 418 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021 AKZ018>021-024>026-240900- Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal- Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island- Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island- Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island- Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island- Including the cities of Skagway, Haines, Gustavus, Hoonah, Angoon, Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake 418 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... Light snow will overspread the region this afternoon with accumulations likely at sea level. Total snowfall amounts through Sunday morning will range from 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Juneau 2 to 4 inches Haines and Skagway 1 to 3 inches Gustavus 1 to 3 inches Hoonah 1 to 2 inches Elfin Cove and Pelican 1 to 2 inches Petersburg and Wrangell 2 to 4 inches
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Snow began after 9 am, measured 1.4 inches at 3 pm and an additional 4.6 inches at 9 pm. Total snow for the day end up at 6.5 inches at midnight.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 939728.