Strong wet front with a moderate atmospheric river aimed at the panhandle. upper elevations of the Klondike cold enough for snow and with the ample moisture incoming high snow totals look likely.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
Strong wet front with a moderate atmospheric river aimed at the panhandle. upper elevations of the Klondike cold enough for snow and with the ample moisture incoming high snow totals look likely. some blowing and drifting snow is also possible.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 18, 6:39 AM AKST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
639 AM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021
.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and surface analysis indicate a
971mb storm force low moving into the SW gulf early this morning.
The frontal band associated with this feature is pushing into the
N gulf coast attm. Models remain in good agreement with this front
moving quickly across the N gulf coast and through the panhandle
today. This will bring high winds and heavy rains to most of SE AK
as it passes through. GPM rain rate indicate precip rates of
0.25-0.3 inches/hr moving N through the gulf supporting periods of
heavy precip approaching the region. Majority of the gulf will
experience storm force winds with inner channels seeing SCA to
gales. Most land areas will see gusts to 40-50mph with the front
the outer coast will experience gusts to 60mph with some potential
around Juneau as the front passes this afternoon and high wind
warnings remain in effect through this evening. WAA will help
keep ptype as rain near sea level with snow for higher elevations.
Snow levels rising to around 2kft will keep the threat of heavy
snow near White Pass where a winter storm warning remains in
effect through Tue morning. Conditions will gradually improve Tue
behind the front with winds and showers gradually diminishing. Minor
changes to focus heaviest precip with fropa and to add mention of
patchy fog to inner channels Tue and Wed night. Otherwise,
forecast represented this will with confidence in heavy precip and
strong winds remaining high.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/ The
upper level pattern in the extended looks very different from what
we have been experiencing the last week or two. First off it is
noticeably less active with a Pacific storm track more focused on
the Bering Sea than the Gulf of Alaska. This is in large part due
to the second point which is there is more ridging over the Gulf
that will develop Wed into Fri. This ridge will not last as an
upper trough is still forecast to push the ridge east this
weekend, though the timing of that has slowed up a little
compared to yesterday.
Lower in the atmosphere, chances of rain still linger in the
panhandle on Wed, but diminish into Wed night as a low over the
gulf slides SE and weakens as it does. It will be the victim of
the building ridge over the gulf that will keep the panhandle
fairly dry into Fri. Precip returns by Fri night and Sat as the
next trough moves through the area. Forecast uncertainty is rather
high for the timing of the onset of precip from this feature
however, as the GFS wants to delay the precip until Sat afternoon
while the ECMWF has it come in as early as Fri evening.
Temperatures should be warm enough that most areas will be rain,
with the possible exception of the northern inner channels, but
precip amounts will be low as the system will have been weakened
from its fight with the ridge as it crossed the gulf. Following
this trough, guidance is still pointing toward a cold air
outbreak late weekend into early next week. It is a little delayed
from yesterday with not as much outflow expected until Mon at the
earliest now, but if it persists in future runs, it will be some
of the coldest air we have seen yet this year.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
for AKZ026.
Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ027-
028.
Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this evening for AKZ020-
021-024.
High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM AKST this evening for
AKZ025.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this
evening for AKZ023.
Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
for AKZ019.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM AKST Tuesday
for AKZ018.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this
evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-041-042-053.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021.
&&
BC/EAL
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau2 high wind, 1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Estimated 20 inches of snow fell at the Moore Creek snotel site. Multiple avalanches occurred on the Klondike Highway keeping it closed over the subsequent days due to cleanup.
Yakutat Airport surface observation system recorded gusts up to 63 mph.
Gusts to 50 miles per hour were observed at the Skagway Airport and local mesonet sites.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 939733, 939735, 939734.