Alaska, 2021Blizzard in Alaska, February 28, 2021
February 28, 2021 · NWS AFC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Areas along the northern southwest coastline were impacted by an extended period of gusty winds and whiteout conditions.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Areas along the northern southwest coastline were impacted by an extended period of gusty winds and whiteout conditions.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 5:10 AM AKST, 7 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 5:10 AM AKST, 7 hours 3 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A rapid moving upper-low over the Gulf with a broad band of
moisture and clouds across Southcentral will bring rain/snow mix
over Prince William Sound and farther inland through Copper River
Basin this morning. Cold air advection from upstream dipped south
of the Alaska Range, which will enhance the potential for snow
over parts of Matanuska Valley this morning. An amplified upper
level ridge over eastern Bering is focused on advancing eastward
through Southwest today followed by a vigorous upper low and
frontal system. The latter pattern is already providing storm to
hurricane force winds over the Bering Sea and portions of the
Aleutians. Low cloud deck and stratus spreads over much of
Southwest Alaska, portions of western Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak
Island from last night into this morning.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in favorable synoptic agreement through at least
Wednesday afternoon. The most busiest weather traffic will
remain over the Bering Sea and Aleutians through Tuesday morning.
Overall, solutions are in sync with the motion and placement of
lows over the Gulf and Bering in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Cloud ceilings will continue to improve into the afternoon,
with predominantly moderate northwest winds near the Airport
today. Winds will gradually diminish tonight. Hence, VFR
conditions will persist through the forecast period.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...
A deep low over the northern Gulf this morning will exit eastward,
reaching Southeast Alaska by this evening. Snow will linger in the
Copper River Basin through midday then taper off this afternoon.
Moderate to strong cold air advection will occur across the entire
region in the wake of the low. This will produce widespread strong
gusty winds through many of the mountain passes as well as through
bays along the coast. The strongest winds are expected across the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island (where a High Wind Warning remains
in effect through the morning hours).
Cold air advection may initially lead to some localized upslope
snowfall, most likely along the western side of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains. However, drier and colder air will ultimately
wind out bringing and end to any snow by this evening.
Temperatures will hold steady or fall today as the arctic airmass
settles in. Cloud cover and winds are the only thing keeping
temperatures from plummeting. Winds will die down this evening
over inland areas of Southcentral, so expect a more significant
drop in temperatures tonight.
However, the colder temperature will be short-lived, thanks to
very progressive steering flow aloft. A front extending from a
Hurricane force low near the western Aleutians will arrive in the
western Gulf/Kodiak Island by early Monday morning and then
continue a rapid eastward march across the Gulf and Southcentral
during the day Monday. Arctic air wrapping into the Aleutian low
will drive eastward so that the bulk of "warmer" air will pass
south of Kodiak Island. As a result, expect precipitation to fall
as all snow except perhaps the south end of Kodiak Island and over
the Gulf waters. Do expect a low to form along the front and take
a similar track to the current low across the northern Gulf.
However, this low will not be as deep and there will be a broad
trough aloft, so expect fairly homogeneous snow amounts across the
region, generally on the order of 2 to 4 inches. A showery regime
will then settle in Monday night through Tuesday night as a
long-wave trough settles in, with the remnants of the Aleutian low
ultimately exiting across the southern Gulf. Most of the activity
will be centered over the Gulf with just a chance of showers over
Southcentral. Temperatures will generally remain "chilly" and below
average for this time of year.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...
There is a fast moving front associated with a strong North
Pacific low. The leading edge of the precipitation shield will
make its way to the southwest coast by tonight. On satellite
imagery, this front has a fetch of moisture that spans to the
Western Pacific north of Attu Island. The models are showing that
this boundary will modify the the airmass over SW AK slightly, but
the precipitation that falls is expected to be snow. Snow is
expected to arrive later tonight across the area and will continue
through Monday. With gusty and widespread windy, some areas will
see blowing snow. A triple point low forms over the Alaska
Peninsula Monday, and will sustain additional snowfall for the
Western Alaska Range and AKPEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...
This morning there is a strong low surface low near Attu Island.
This is a fast moving system and the front will move eastward this
forecast period bringing strong winds and another round of snow
and blowing snow over the western Bering that will progress
eastward today through early next week. A Winter Weather Advisory
for blowing snow has been issued for Saint Paul and Saint George
as high winds and snow will limit visibility to one half mile at
times on Sunday.
As cold air gets entrained into the low, southwesterly to westerly
winds will follow, with hurricane force gusts likely across much
of the western Bering Sunday into Monday. A High Wind Warning has
been issued for the western Chain, including Shemya for today into
Monday. This front will push eastward another High Wind Warning
has been issued there as well for late Sunday through the majority
of Monday for Adak. A third High Wind Warning has been issued for
the central Aleutians, including Unalaska/Dutch Harbor, where
there is potential for strong winds Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...
Bering: A well developed low and front tracks into Southwest
Alaska for Tue. Model confidence is good. Widespread high end
gale force winds and waves with areas of storm force winds over
the Eastern Bering, Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, diminishing
Thu. Waves to 40 feet on the Bering side of the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula, subsiding. A new low and front moves across
into the Central Aleutians and Bering by Thu. Widespread high end
gale force winds with storm force gusts spread into the Central
Aleutians and Bering through Thu. Wave building to 25 feet over
the Western Bering by Thu.
Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Southern Gulf Wed. Models vary,
but confidence is good. Widespread small craft winds and waves
with areas of gale force winds mostly south and west of Kodiak
Island. Waves 18 feet building to 22 feet for Wed. Outflow winds
from the Alaska Peninsula spread from the Shumagin Islands to the
Barren Islands into the Western Gulf. Widespread gale force winds
diminish to small craft winds for Thu.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...
The long term forecast period continues to look quieter overall
with most of the active weather remaining out over the Bering Sea
with an occasional front moving into Southwest for potential light
snow. The period from Wednesday through Saturday continues to
suggest (and there is great model agreement on this) that an upper
level Arctic/Siberian low will move southward through southern
Alaska on Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds in across the
Bering Sea. This upper level ridge is expected to move over
Southwest Alaska on Thursday bringing the potential for some light
snow though it seems with each new model run, these upper level
features are being shifted slightly westward. Potential exists
this front may never move onshore Southwest Thursday afternoon
into early Friday timeframe. The main thing to take away from the
pattern going forward during the forecast period above is colder
than normal temperatures for southern Alaska along with below
normal precipitation. Winds through gaps and passes appear to be
the main theme with the cold air expected to generally move from a
northwest to southeast orientation. This continues to not be the
ideal setup for very strong winds out of the gaps and passes
across Southcentral, except for possibly Whittier. Winds will be
on the uptick, however, during this timeframe but the extent as to
how strong they would get will be limited due to the way the cold
air will be pushing through. Another stronger front may try to
move into Southwest Alaska at the end of the forecast period
Friday night into Saturday bringing more snow to Southwest and
some slightly warmer temperatures, though, still remaining below
normal.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 131 141 155 195
High Wind Warning 171 185 187 191
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 130 178
Storm Warning 131 132 138 150 170 171 173-177 185
Gale Warning 120 121 125 127 129 136 137 139 155 160 165
172 179 180 181
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 138 139 150 160 165 180
185
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CMB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MV
Blizzard, Kuskokwim Delta
- When
- February 28, 12:13 PM AKST to 7:56 PM AKST
- Where
- Kuskokwim Delta forecast zone
- Reported by
- ASOS
Blizzard conditions impacted the Kuskokwim Delta with quarter mile to zero visibility and whiteout conditions in heavy snow and wind gusts 35-40 kts. The peak period of impact was Feb 28 from 1911 to 1956 AKST.
- Blizzard
- Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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- Flash Flooding and Hail in Tennessee, February 28, 20211 injured · $225,000 · 50 kt wind · 9 events
- Flooding in West Virginia, February 28, 2021$93,000 · 16 events
- Tornado and Flash Flooding in Kentucky, February 28, 2021$10,000 · EF1 · 38 events
- Tornado in Kentucky, February 28, 2021$40,000 · EF1 · 1 event
- Tornado in Louisiana, February 28, 2021$30,000 · EF1 · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in Mississippi, February 28, 2021$75,000 · 50 kt wind · 2 events
- Flooding in Ohio, February 28, 2021$16,000 · 16 events
- Flooding in Kentucky, February 28, 2021$12,000 · 15 events
- Flood in Illinois, February 28, 2021$20,000 · 1 event
- Hail and Lightning Strike in Texas, February 28, 2021$15,000 · 1.5 in hail · 4 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 971995.