Heavy Snow in Alaska, December 26 to 28, 2021

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKST Sat Dec 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A substantial winter storm has begun with large amounts of snow,
freezing rain, and rain accumulations expected across northern
Alaska going into next week. Light snow moved into the Fairbanks
area overnight, with these conditions continuing through Christmas
Day. Heavier snow is expected to move to the Interior by tonight,
with total snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches in the Fairbanks
area by tomorrow morning. Areas around Norton Sound and the Yukon
Delta region have freezing rain conditions that will persist
through tonight. These messy conditions out west will slide
further east into the Fairbanks area by tomorrow morning, with
significant freezing rain and rain accumulations through tomorrow
night. These conditions, combined with west winds developing
tomorrow afternoon will increase the risk for power outages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridging aloft continues to dominate over the northern
Pacific and extending across northern Alaska, centered over the
West Coast. However, a series of shortwave troughs will ride up
along the western side of the ridge and weaken this feature over
the next several days. The first trough will reach the West Coast
by Sunday afternoon, creating westerly flow across northern
Alaska. This trough will be responsible for the messy weather that
will occur over northern Alaska going through the weekend.
Ridging will rebuild across the West Coast Sunday night into
Monday before another strong trough digs across the Bering Sea and
moving to the West Coast by Monday night. Westerly flow looks to
develop going through the middle of the week, with another strong
winter storm possible on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow has spread into the Interior, with these conditions
continuing through this evening. Heavier snow will move east into
the Fairbanks area overnight before transitioning to freezing rain
tomorrow morning. Based on increased confidence of what is likely
to occur, we still expect similar amounts of snow as previous
forecasts of 10 to 15 inches in the Fairbanks area; however, the
freezing rain amounts are expected to be larger than previously
advertised, with amounts ranging between three quarters of an inch
to one inch in the Fairbanks area. Larger amounts of freezing
rain is expected further south along the Parks Highway through
Nenana and into the Alaska Range of over one inch. West winds will
increase tomorrow afternoon as the weather front pushes eastward,
with all factors of this winter storm increasing the risk of power
outages across the Interior. See the Winter Storm Warning
statements for more details on specifics on snow and freezing rain
amounts across the Interior. Temperatures are expected to rise
into the mid-30s as far east as Fairbanks by Sunday night, with at
least highs in the 20s that will persist into the middle of next
week for areas south and west of the Yukon Flats.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Low ceilings and fog encompass areas along the North Slope this
afternoon. Light snow has begun along the northwest Arctic Coast
as a weather front moves east across the North Slope through
tonight. A strong surface low moving east across the Western
Interior and eventually north of the Brooks Range by tomorrow
morning will produce large snow amounts from the Central Beaufort
Sea Coast south along the Dalton Highway and for Anaktuvuk Pass
through tomorrow night. Snow amounts of 5 to 7 inches expected
along the coastal areas from Point Thompson to Nuiqsut, with
larger amounts ranging from 8 to 12 inches along the Dalton
Highway south through the Brooks Range Passes. Once the surface
low tracks northeast into the Beaufort Sea, surface high pressure
will quickly build across the Arctic Plains, resulting in a sharp
pressure gradient to form along the northeastern Brooks Range.
This will cause strong westerly flow to develop along the
Beaufort Sea Coasts, blizzard conditions likely across this area
beginning late Sunday and persisting through Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
An extensive freezing rain continues out west, particularly at
Nome. These conditions expected to continue through tonight, with
freezing rain extending eastward around Norton Sound and
eventually into the Western Interior. Total ice accumulations
ranging from one tenth of an inch in the Lower Yukon Valleys to a
half inch for areas from Galena east are expected through
tomorrow. Areas receiving snow will see anywhere from 5 inches at
Huslia to 16 inches in the Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys through
Sunday evening. Very warm temperatures are expected to remain for
areas of the West Coast and the Western Interior going into the
middle of next week, which could lead to more precipitation type
issues with a front that will reach the West Coast on Monday, so
stay tuned.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...
An active weather pattern expected to continue through most of the
week before a rapid cooling trend going into the New Year. Current
guidance suggests a weather front moving across the West Coast and
into the Interior on Monday. Another strong weather system looks
to track behind the Monday front from Tuesday into Wednesday with
potential widespread impacts across northern Alaska. Beyond
Wednesday, model solutions diverge on the weather pattern, but
consensus seems to suggest a quieter and colder weather
conditions across northern Alaska going into next weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ227.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.
&&

DEC 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
919 PM AKST SAT DEC 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     SNOW             3 NNE FAIRBANKS         64.88N 147.60W
12/25/2021  M8.2 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8.2 SNOW LAST 24 HOURS. ~6 INCHES SINCE
            10AM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
938 PM AKST SAT DEC 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FREEZING RAIN    1 SSE NOME              64.50N 165.41W
12/25/2021  E0.50 INCH       NOME               AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NOME POLICE DISPATCH ESTIMATES BETWEEN AN
            QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE
            ACCUMULATION.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
946 PM AKST SAT DEC 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FREEZING RAIN    1 SSE NOME              64.50N 165.41W
12/25/2021  E0.25 INCH       NOME               AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN REPORT FROM
            1 SSE NOME. NOME POLICE DISPATCH ESTIMATES
            AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE
            ACCUMULATION.

&&