Two rounds of snow passed over the region, with the first one affiliated with a warm front lifting through the area. Some locations then had a brief pause in snowfall, until the second round of snow affiliated with a surface low shifting from Wyoming into the Dakotas moved in.
Every event with a place to put it; 29 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
Two rounds of snow passed over the region, with the first one affiliated with a warm front lifting through the area. Some locations then had a brief pause in snowfall, until the second round of snow affiliated with a surface low shifting from Wyoming into the Dakotas moved in. The combination of both these systems resulted in heavy snow over central and portions of western North Dakota. The heaviest reported snowfall of 18 inches occurred at Jamestown in Stutsman County. During the early morning of the 27th, blizzard conditions then developed over the James River Valley as strong winds increased. Conditions improved by the late afternoon of the 27th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 26, 8:55 AM CST, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 855 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 852 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 The forecast looks to be on track. Did go ahead and add some likely PoPs across the south as radar returns and webcams would suggest snow has started to fall across portions of the far southwest and far south central. Otherwise, just blended in the latest observations to the forecast. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 The only significant change was to add some flurries this morning before better snow chances begin. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Issued at 406 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 Main forecast issue in the short term period will be Winter Weather highlights today through Monday. Current guidance has not wavered much from yesterday. All indications point to an upgrade of the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. At this time see no need to fret over whether or not we should add/remove a county. Will keep Warning area the same as the watch, with a Winter Weather Advisory for points west. The question is how far west to go with the Advisory. Snowfall amounts drop off over southwest ND, but given the snow that fell Christmas Eve through Christmas morning, the small potential of some mixed precip today, and blowing snow potential tonight through Sunday morning, will go ahead and include the far southwest. This area can always be dropped later if thing don't materialize, or dropped early on Monday. As far as snowfall potential. The NBM 4.1 probability of 6 inches of snow in 24 hours, ending at 18Z Monday is well above 70 percent over most of the north central into the northern James River Valley, with the 60 percent contour touching all of the counties currently in the Watch, except Mcintosh. Our NBM guidance is depicting 8-10 inch totals from Renville and Ward, southeast through Wells, Foster and northeast Stutsman. The 6 inch contour includes all of the western counties of the Watch, including much of Burleigh county, although southeast Burleigh county, including Bismarck, as well as Mandan in Morton county is within the 4-6 inch contour. Snowfall tapers to only 1-2 inches over the far southwest portion of the state. There are some uncertainties in snowfall amounts, especially along the southwest portion of the warning. There is quite a large difference between the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean snow probabilities with the GEFS favoring higher amounts over the southeast portion of the forecast area, even as far back west as Bismarck. The latest 26 DEC 00 UTC GEFS plumes over western and central ND are still not showing much sign of significant clustering around a specific value. If anything at BIS there may be some slight clustering around the mean which is around 0.40 which is near our given NBM qpf. Given the continued uncertainty and potential for higher qpf amounts back farther west, and probably most importantly the fresh snow and wind potential, even if we do not meet warning criteria as far as amounts, the warning seems justified, especially given the potential for post Christmas Holiday travel. Today southeast winds will increase ahead of the developing surface low and with fresh snow on the ground from Christmas day, we should see some patchy blowing snow spread from southwest into central ND as the stronger gradient works eastward. This afternoon into early evening could be a troublesome timeframe as the first wave of snow really gets going as the over central ND with strong synoptic scale and FG forcing combine, while the strong southeasterly winds are still howling. The blowing snow model indicates a large area of central ND with definite 1/2mi visibility in snow and blowing snow, with some areas of a quarter mile vsby. Winds do drop off tonight as the surface low ejects into the central plains. Winds then pick up again late tonight in the southwest, and on Monday across the rest of the forecast area as the surface low lifts northward through southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Snow will taper off from southwest to northeast after midnight tonight, lingering over the Turtle Mountains through Monday morning. However winds will still be strong, especially early Monday and depending on the amount of snow, significant blowing and drifting may continue through much of the day. We did extend the Winter Storm Warning through the day Monday as we don't think impacts will have lessened enough, especially over eastern portions of the warning, by 18Z. This will give the day shift more time to assess things Monday morning, and they can always cancel things early if conditions warrant. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 406 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 Once the snow moves out on Monday, the main forecast concern through the long term period will be wind chill highlight. Models remain consistent in bringing another wave through the northern plains and spreading light snow across mainly southern and eastern portions of the forecast area Monday night through Tuesday. The latest NBM guidance is consistent from the previous run, shifting things only slightly farther southeast, with snow amounts a little higher over the James River Valley. Snow amounts area generally 1-2 inches over the James River Valley into the far south central, east of the Missouri, with a half inch to an inch of snow over the far southwest and far south central west of the Missouri. The main concern through the long term period will be wind chills. Expect that there will wind chill advisories beginning late tonight and continuing through the extended period for some areas. Wind Chill Warnings will be needed at times across the north Monday night through Wednesday, there is a brief break during the Thursday-Friday timeframe when the southern half of the forecast area may not need an advisory, but then it looks like another re- enforcing shot of Arctic Air right in time for the New Years Holiday. Wind chills will be flirting with 50 below readings at times across the north, while actual morning lows Tuesday through Thursday are already well below 20 below even around 30 below Wednesday morning across the north, and these tend to be get colder as we get closer. Of course, with an Arctic airmass you can always get a layer of stratus that throws a wrench into your temperature forecast. Needless to say, especially after a fresh blanket of snow, this week will certainly be very cold and we will be ramping up our cold weather messaging. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 645 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities today in low stratus with snow beginning southwest and spreading north and east. Conditions deteriorate this afternoon and tonight with widespread snow and blowing snow this afternoon, then mainly snow tonight as winds abate briefly. Early monday morning snow ends from southwest to northeast but increasing winds will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>046. Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST Monday for NDZ002>005-010>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051. Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ001>003-009>011. && UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...TWH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 900 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 NDZ004-005-012-013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051-271500- Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster- Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 900 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Winter Storm Warning is in effect this afternoon through Monday afternoon. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. Dangerous to life threatening wind chills are expected Monday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snow amounts to the National Weather Service via social media or by calling 1-800-247-0212. NDZ017>020-031>034-040>046-271500- McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton- Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons- 900 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 /800 AM MST Sun Dec 26 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect this morning through Monday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through Monday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. Dangerous to life threatening wind chills are expected Monday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snow amounts to the National Weather Service via social media or by calling 1-800-247-0212. NDZ002-003-010-011-271500- Burke-Renville-Mountrail-Ward- 900 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota and northwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect this morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect this afternoon through Monday afternoon. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. Dangerous to life threatening wind chills are expected Monday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snow amounts to the National Weather Service via social media or by calling 1-800-247-0212. NDZ001-009-271500- Divide-Williams- 900 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect this morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect this morning through Monday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through Monday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. Dangerous to life threatening wind chills are expected Monday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snow amounts to the National Weather Service via social media or by calling 1-800-247-0212. ZH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
25 heavy snow, 8 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Bismarck received 11 inches of snow.
Underwood received ten inches of snow.
Locations near Stanley received eight inches of snow.
Sherwood received 11 inches of snow.
Minot received 14 inches of snow.
McClusky received ten inches of snow.
Fessenden received 12 inches of snow.
Jamestown received 18 inches of snow.
Locations near Kulm received 17 inches of snow.
Locations near Ellendale received ten inches of snow.
Locations near Carrington received 13 inches of snow.
Napoleon received 11 inches of snow.
Mandan received eight inches of snow.
Mercer County received an estimated ten inches of snow.
Oliver County received an estimated ten inches of snow.
Grant County received an estimated eight inches of snow.
Sioux County received an estimated eight inches of snow.
Emmons County received an estimated ten inches of snow.
Burke County received an estimated eight inches of snow.
Kidder County received an estimated 12 inches of snow.
McIntosh County received an estimated 12 inches of snow.
Locations near Velva received 11 inches of snow.
Westhope received ten inches of snow.
Locations near St. John received 12 inches of snow.
Locations west of Rugby received nine inches of snow.
Occasional falling snow along with fresh snow on the ground combined with strong winds to produce a blizzard.
Occasional falling snow along with fresh snow on the ground combined with strong winds to produce a blizzard.
Occasional falling snow along with fresh snow on the ground combined with strong winds to produce a blizzard.
Occasional falling snow along with fresh snow on the ground combined with strong winds to produce a blizzard.
Occasional falling snow along with fresh snow on the ground combined with strong winds to produce a blizzard.
Occasional falling snow along with fresh snow on the ground combined with strong winds to produce a blizzard.
Occasional falling snow along with fresh snow on the ground combined with strong winds to produce a blizzard.
Occasional falling snow along with fresh snow on the ground combined with strong winds to produce a blizzard.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 998835, 998838, 998842, 998845, 998846, 998847, 998882, 998892, 998893, 998894, 998895, 998896, 998898, 999032, 999033, 999035, 999036, 999037, 999039, 999040, 999041, 998858, 998859, 998860, 998863, 999044, 999045, 999051, 999052, 999053, 999054, 999055, 999056.