Blizzard in Alaska, December 23 to 25, 2021

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The present headline heading into this evening is the continued
active pattern out west, with blizzard conditions on St. Lawrence
Island, heavy snow across Norton Sound and the Lower Yukon Valley,
and snow changing over the rain for portions of the Yukon Delta.
The front associated with this precipitation will push east with
snow reaching the Western Interior this afternoon and the Central
Interior and the Tanana Valley this evening. Strong westerly flow
is causing continued blizzard conditions along the Eastern
Beaufort Sea Coast, but is expected to subside by this evening.

Focus will begin to transition towards another major winter storm
after conditions improve tomorrow, as current guidance is
suggesting widespread impacts for northern Alsaka over the
holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper levels consist of a strong ridge axis centered over the
West Coast, with a closed low in the high Arctic and a strong
trough digging across the Bering Sea. The strong trough in the
Bering will be the main driver of the weather over the next couple
of days, as this feature will break down the ridge and develop
westerly flow across northern Alaska. Northwesterly flow will
develop on Thursday night as the ridge builds again in the Bering
Sea and persists into the weekend. The closed low in the Arctic
will persist over the next several days while sitting atop of the
ridge well north of the Arctic Coast.

At the surface, low pressure extending across the Bering Sea will
bring a front across the Interior this evening, resulting in
widespread snow across the southern Interior and the Alaska Range.
High pressure will build across the Interior on Thursday and
persist into Friday. The next weather front will reach the West
Coast on Friday and push into the Interior by Saturday ahead of a
much more intense surface low pressure that will develop in the
Bering Sea Saturday afternoon. This low will be the focal point of
attention going through the weekend, as current model guidance
suggests widespread winter weather impacts going into next week
across northern Alaska.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow will move into the area this evening and last through
tomorrow afternoon. Snow amounts will range from 4 to 7 inches for
the Central Interior and 4 to 6 inches for the Tanana Valley from
Fairbanks south. In the Alaska Range, 8 to 13 inches are expected
during this time period. Temperatures will cool beginning tomorrow
night, with another chance for snow on Friday evening for the
Fairbanks area. Attention will then shift towards a significant
threat for large amounts of snow and blowing snow for the late
weekend and into early next week, so stay tuned for further
updates. See the issued SPS for further details.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Blizzard conditions are ongoing for the eastern Beaufort Sea
Coast, but is expected to improve this evening. Westerly flow will
persist, with blowing snow issues expected to develop again along
the eastern Beaufort Sea Coast as high pressure builds in from the
west along the North Slope. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather
conditions going into the weekend with temperatures falling below
normal by Friday night. A strong winter storm moving north into
the Chukchi Sea will be the next system to monitor going into the
late weekend, with significant impacts possible for the western
Arctic Coast. See the issued SPS for further details.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Blizzard conditions on St. Lawrence Island, heavy snow along the
Lower Yukon Valley, and mixed precipitation in the Yukon Valley
area continue this afternoon. Conditions will slowly improve this
evening as the weather front pushes further east, with heavy snow
for portions of the Western Interior through tonight. Snow
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected for areas from Huslia
south through tonight. Temperatures will remain above normal going
into the weekend, especially the Yukon Valley region ahead of a
strong push of warm air from a developing system in the Bering Sea
beginning on Saturday. This will be the next feature of interest
for Saturday and Sunday to monitor for the West Coast and Western
Interior. See the issued SPS for further details.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...Long range models continue to
indicate another couple of winter storms moving through the
forecast area this weekend. There is an increasing potential for
heavy snow along the West Coast on Saturday, with a second, more
intense storm moving across the West Coast and into the Interior
on Sunday. Models are coming into better agreement on track with
this system, increasing confidence on areas that could be impacted
throughout the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ214-AKZ215.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

DEC 21