A persistent, large-scale trough over the United States favored an active period of weather across the Central Gulf Coast region, with parts of Central Alabama experiencing several waves of wintry precipitation over a span of five days. An upper level disturbance moving through Texas aided in the development of a surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday the 14th into Monday the 15th.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BMX wrote it up.
A persistent, large-scale trough over the United States favored an active period of weather across the Central Gulf Coast region, with parts of Central Alabama experiencing several waves of wintry precipitation over a span of five days. An upper level disturbance moving through Texas aided in the development of a surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday the 14th into Monday the 15th. As the surface low tracked northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic region, a large area of precipitation developed and overspread Central Alabama. Sub-freezing surface temperatures were confined to far west and northwest portions of Central Alabama. The freezing air mass was shallow, and the wind pattern a few thousand feet above the surface favored an influx of warmer air from the south. This type of vertical temperature profile was a typical setup for freezing rain. Over time, low-level cooling occurred and allowed for mixture of sleet and snow along with the freezing rain. The hardest hit counties were Pickens, Lamar, Fayette, Marion, and Winston Counties. As much as one-half of ice accumulation occurred in these counties. The weight of the ice caused trees to bend or fall over, tree branches to break, and power outages. The coating of ice made for dangerous or impossible travel across the area.
As the storm system exited, arctic air was pulled southward into Alabama. Temperatures fell into the teens on the morning of Tuesday the 16th with a wind chill factor in the single digits. Much of the region remained below freezing through the day. To add to the busy period of weather, a remaining shallow cloud layer produced snow showers into the early afternoon on the 16th. The snow was dry and fluffy in nature with accumulations of 1-2 inches some areas.
A second cycle of wintry weather affected similar areas across northwest Central Alabama on Wednesday the 18th through Thursday the 19th. Another upper level disturbance moved through the large-scale trough. The northwest counties of Central Alabama remained at or a few degrees below freezing. By mid afternoon on the 17th, precipitation, in the form of snow and sleet, began moving in from Mississippi. Snow and sleet began accumulating in the evening hours and continued through the mid-morning hours on the 18th. As much as 3 inches of sleet and snow accumulated in Marion and Winston Counties. The sleet and snow changed over to freezing rain in northern Lamar County resulting in power outages.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 6:01 PM CST, 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 601 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1247 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021/ Through Tonight. A broad upper-level trough is moving into the Central CONUS with persistent large-scale southwesterly flow over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, an expansive 1048mb arctic high is situating over the north-central CONUS and resulting in cold, northerly surface winds over the Deep South. This shallow layer of cold air is still stuck beneath a low-level inversion which was measured again on this morning's 12Z BMX RAOB up to 850mb, although the inversion has slightly cooled since yesterday morning. Temperature-wise, the forecast for today is not much different than conditions we experienced yesterday. A stalled boundary remains positioned just east of the Mid-Atlantic coast extending southwest through the northern Florida Peninsula and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Expect highs in the lower 50s southeast where the airmass has remained warmer closer to the front while temperatures stay in the upper 20s/lower 30s northwest where the colder, arctic air has become more prevalent. Lift along the front is producing a large area of rain over Georgia just southeast of our forecast area. A few isolated showers may move through areas southeast of the I-85 corridor today, but expect the bulk of rainfall to stay east of our area. Further west, a weak impulse is currently producing scattered instances of freezing rain over Mississippi. The activity is generally moving north-northeastward within the mean flow, and latest guidance is in good agreement that most of our forecast area will remain unaffected by this initial wave with the exception of our far northwestern tier of counties which may begin seeing light freezing rain (as determined by a progged warm nose from ~750-925mb & below freezing sfc temps) shortly after 6 PM. Ice accumulations will be minor overnight (less than one-tenth of an inch), but there is enough cause for concern to continue the Winter Storm Warning beginning at 6 PM this evening for the counties west of I-65 along and near I-20 & I-22. A short reprieve from the precip may occur after midnight as the first impulse moves into northern AL and dry mid-level air filters in behind. However, as the aforementioned upper-level trough moves over the Southern Plains, a surface low will develop along the stalled front south of Louisiana. Deep- layer moisture will begin surging northeastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley before sunrise increasing the likelihood for significant impacts as we head into Monday. 86 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0225 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021/ Monday through Tuesday. A large area of precip should be approaching west Alabama by sunrise Monday. Near sunrise the freezing line will be along a Double Springs, to Coker, to Demopolis line. West of this line, temperatures will not likely rise above freezing through the day, so this area will experience the higher ice and sleet amounts. Total ice accumulations along and west of this line are forecast to be near or greater than one-quarter of inch, with maximum amounts near four tenths of an inch across Marion, western Winston, and northern Lamar counties. The demarcation line of rain vs. freezing rain will shift slowly eastward as the cold air advection battles the raindrops falling from a warmer air mass aloft. The models are still showing mainly a freezing rain event, with a transition to sleet/snow mixture for several hours before the precip ends. The latest models are also pulling out the precip faster, which will reduce the impacts from sleet/snow. Surface temperatures will struggle to fall to 32 degrees for areas along the I-65 corridor, and conditions will not likely be impactful enough to warrant an upgrade to a winter storm warning. For now will not change any watch/warnings, as later model runs may come in more aggressive. Expect most of the heavier precip to be east of Alabama by 6 pm Monday, with the remaining precip exiting east Alabama by 9 pm Monday. Temperatures have come in a little colder for Tuesday morning lows, with a hard freeze likely for west Alabama. 58/rose Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0420 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021/ Monday through Tuesday: Confidence continues to increase that a winter storm will cause significant impacts especially over West Alabama through Monday night. There has been a shift in some but by no means all of the 00z guidance towards a quicker onset of precipitation, colder thermal profiles over West Alabama, and potentially further east with the colder air. The GFS, HRRR, WRF-ARW, and to some extent the Canadian are in this more progressive, colder camp, while the NAM and ECMWF are in the slower, not as cold camp. Often these systems move in quicker than expected, and models have generally been too warm with temperatures the past couple days, so I lean towards the faster/colder solutions but confidence on the exact details is low. If thermal profiles cool significantly, some areas in West Alabama could see more significant sleet accumulations and less significant freezing rain accumulations, and maybe more in the way of snow accumulations in the vicinity of Marion County. For that reason, have upgraded West Alabama to a Winter Storm Warning rather than an Ice Storm Warning. However, preparations do need to be made for a significant ice storm like we have not seen in quite a while, as I do expect a corridor of quarter to locally half inch ice accumulations somewhere across West Alabama with quite a bit of tree damage and power outages, which is in agreement with the HREF FRAM mean. And even if some areas receive more sleet than freezing rain, there will still be significant travel impacts in the warning area as temperatures fall well below freezing. Further east towards the Birmingham metro, the impacts become less certain but still meaningful. There is some concern with some models showing heavy precipitation moving in around midday that dynamic cooling could at least temporarily bring temperatures down to near freezing and potentially temporarily suppress the warm nose. If this was to occur, rain/freezing rain and potential bursts of sleet in the heavier activity could cause impacts during the day. Even if this does not occur, travel impacts will increase by late afternoon and evening as any remaining moisture on roads would re-freeze into black ice and remaining precipitation changes over to freezing rain and sleet. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch eastward to include the Birmingham metro and account for these potential impacts. Folks in the watch area should stay tuned to the latest forecasts for possible warnings or advisories as temperature differences of only a few degrees across a sharp gradient will make a big difference. May eventually need a winter weather advisory just east of the watch area as well. Temperatures in portions of West Alabama are expected to drop to 15 degrees or below Monday night with wind chills in the single digits to near zero, exacerbating the impacts of power outages. A hard freeze warning will probably be needed for western portions of the area, and wind chills aren't too far from wind chill advisory criteria. Low clouds across the northwest half of the area Tuesday will limit warming/melting potential, with some areas of our northwest counties probably not reaching the freezing mark for highs. Wednesday through Saturday: Another strong shortwave begins to approach the area on Wednesday. This will bring widespread precipitation again on Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures may be borderline in our far northwest counties at times but will keep precipitation all liquid for now. The cold front Monday night will not clear out the entire Gulf, and the GFS and ECMWF are both now bringing warm sector quickly northward into our southeast counties Thursday morning. If this occurs, instability and shear would be supportive of a threat of severe storms and will add a low confidence mention to the HWO. Dry and cool conditions are expected beyond that for the rest of the period. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. MVFR ceilings area wide at this writing. Local area radars are quiet but returns starting to fill the screen west. A powerful winter storm approaches the area overnight with precipitation increasing through the period. Some of the precipitation may become wintry especially for TCL. Two distinct upper waves moves over the area this period. Additionally, a low pressure system develops on the front to our south and races northeastward late Monday. Isentropic lift develops area wide before 06z in response to the first upper wave. Expect the ceilings dropping to IFR through the evening hours. Most of the precipitation with this first wave will remain mainly to the west of the terminals. As the next wave approaches around daybreak, ceilings will lower again into LIFR with rain quickly spreading eastward. Several things going on Monday daytime that need to be ironed out. A thunder or two may be possible southeast near TOI as the more moist and unstable air is pulled northward. A very tight gradient in temperatures will be near TCL with freezing temperatures slowly moving eastward. Some changeover to FZRA or PL may occur after 18z. It does not appear that the freezing line makes it to BHM/EET but will monitor this closely. Northerly winds 5-10kts remain for the northern terminals while MGM/TOI see winds veer from north to southeast to northwest during the period. Winds just above the surface also increase to near 40kts close to TOI and will watch this too. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold and moist air mass will remain over central Alabama through Monday night. Low clouds will persist through Tuesday morning, with light wetting rain tonight and more significant rainfall totals Monday and Monday evening. Surface temperatures will be below freezing on Monday for portions of west Alabama, and significant accumulations of freezing rain is possible. Ice accumulations will likely approach one-quarter of an inch for the far western counties of Alabama. A hard freeze is likely Monday night as temperatures fall into the teens and 20s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 38 43 21 38 22 / 30 100 70 0 0 Anniston 42 47 25 40 25 / 30 100 70 0 0 Birmingham 36 40 20 37 24 / 20 100 50 0 0 Tuscaloosa 34 36 16 35 22 / 20 100 20 0 0 Calera 38 43 20 37 25 / 20 100 50 0 0 Auburn 44 54 29 43 29 / 20 90 80 0 0 Montgomery 44 53 25 43 28 / 10 90 50 0 10 Troy 46 59 27 45 30 / 10 80 50 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night for the following counties: Hale...Marengo. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Monday night for the following counties: Fayette...Greene...Lamar...Marion... Pickens...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston. Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for the following counties: Bibb...Blount...Jefferson...Perry... Shelby. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Birmingham AL 427 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ALZ011>015-017>050-151330- Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee- Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega- Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa- Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon- Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour- 427 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the National Weather Service office in Birmingham. .DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight. Light freezing rain will be possible tonight over West Alabama. Accumulations of a glaze to as high as a tenth of an inch in the northwest may cause slippery conditions, especially on bridges and overpasses. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet will impact Central Alabama Monday night, generally along and west of Interstate 65. Some snow may also occur over far northwest Central Alabama. The most significant impacts will be over West Alabama where ice accumulations will cause significant travel impacts as well as downed trees and power outages. Temperatures in West Alabama will fall to 15 degrees or below Monday night into Tuesday morning, with wind chills in the single digits to near zero. Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday in far southeast Central Alabama. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed tonight through Monday night and on Thursday. Please follow all local, state, and CDC guidelines in regards to travel.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A mixture of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain produced accumulations up to one-half inch across Marion County. The freezing rain coated trees and power lines resulting in power outages.
A mixture of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain produced accumulations up to one-half inch across Lamar County. The freezing rain coated trees and power lines resulting in power outages.
A mixture of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain produced accumulations up to one-half inch across Pickens County. The freezing rain coated trees and power lines resulting in power outages.
A mixture of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain produced accumulations up to one-half inch across Winston County. The freezing rain coated trees and power lines resulting in power outages.
A mixture of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain produced accumulations up to one-half inch across northwest Fayette County. The freezing rain coated trees and power lines resulting in power outages.
Sleet and snow accumulations up to one inch across northern Lamar County. Precipitation changed over to freezing rain with ice accumulations of one-quarter of an inch. Power outages reported.
Public reports of 1-3 inches of sleet and snow across the county.
Public reports of 1-3 inches of sleet and snow across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 942235, 942237, 942238, 942239, 942240, 942255, 942257, 942258.