NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 21, 10:08 PM MST, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 10:08 PM MST, 3 hours 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1008 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020
Snow showers have mainly ended across the west this morning. Some
lower clouds remain across Jackson, Pinedale, and the western
mountains, and the thicker cloud deck is expected to stick around
through the night. East of the Divide, broken high clouds and breezy
conditions are the story today under dry conditions. Also, some
record high temperatures have already been broken today, with
other locations likely to break records by the end of the day.
But although it might not feel like it, it is still December and
it will begin to feel like it tomorrow.
The ridge begins to get pushed out overnight, tightening the
pressure gradient, which will lead to some increased winds
overnight and Tuesday morning. A trough moves in Tuesday and
Tuesday night with the cold front pushing across the area during
the day. The timing of the front is as follows: Late
morning/early afternoon the front reaches the Continental Divide.
Late afternoon the front crosses Buffalo, Riverton, Rock Springs,
by the evening the front will have crossed the state and into the
Nebraska Panhandle. Behind the front, much cooler temperatures,
though not bitterly cold, and gusty winds due to very impressive
surface pressure rises. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in
the single digits to teens, and even single digits below zero in
the Western valleys. It is the wind, however, that will be the
main story with this system.
As the trough moves into the region tonight, SW winds at 700 mb show
50 to 60 kts across the east slopes of the Absarokas and Wind River
Mountains. This is favorable for high wind at Cody/Clark and Lander.
The southwest flow is also favorable for strong winds at Casper. As
the front passes, the flow shifts to northwesterly, shutting off the
wind machine at Lander and decreasing it at Cody. However, both the
NAM and GFS show 8 to 10 mb pressure rises behind the front across
Buffalo, and Casper through Laramie and Rawlins. This, in addition
to 700mb winds of 75 to 80 kts over Buffalo, means a slam dunk high
wind event for Buffalo. We also expect Casper as well as across the
south from Kemmerer through eastern Sweetwater county to blow high
wind Tuesday afternoon and evening. The other high wind spot to
watch will be post frontal winds in the N. Bighorn Basin, such as
around Greybull Tuesday afternoon and evening as well as the Wind
River Basin. With this, we issued High Wind Warnings and Watches
for these areas.
The other hazard will be snow from this system. There is not a whole
lot of moisture present with the trough, and models have pretty well
solidified the track and timing, so made few changes to the snow
grids through the event. Still looking at near-advisory amounts
across the Tetons, but impacts will be minimal, so will not issue an
advisory. East of the Divide, some upslope potential, so Lander and
Muddy Gap through Casper will see an inch or two with less than an
inch across Johnson County. The Bighorns might see 1 to 3 inches or
so. Snow will taper off Tuesday night, but the potential for blowing
snow will be possible across Johnson and Natrona Counties if they
get enough snow to blow around.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020
After a period of warm days for late December, expect a big change
starting Wednesday. Much colder temperatures are expected along
with strong northerly to northwesterly flow as the longwave trough
deepens over the central CONUS. Temperatures may struggle to get
to the freezing mark in the warmest locations. H500 winds are
showing over 70 knots for central portions of the region and the
jet max moves across the northern parts of WY. All of the main
models show some spotty snow over the state, although there is not
agreement on the areal extent. At this point, keeping conditions
dry Wednesday for the grids. Any activity would look to be mainly
gone by 00z Thursday, with the exception of around the ID border
in the higher elevations. A slow warming trend is expected after
Wednesday as the aforementioned trough moves further east and
deepens. Expect winds to start to slacken overall with ridging
building in over the state.
Moving into Friday and the weekend, a cold front is projected to move
into the PACNW early Friday. The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all show
this feature, but there is a bit of discrepancy on the timing. As
this moves east, it also means disagreement on when the
precipitation starts impacting WY. The GFS and ECMWF show the
leading edge of the snowfall into the western counties by 12z
Saturday, whereas the Canadian holds off until 18z. Some lingering
precipitation looks to be around through Sunday afternoon, but
much of the area may remain dry. Confidence at this point is low,
however due to the model discrepancy and that it is still several
days away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1003 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020
Only forecast concern through sunrise is variable fog affecting
KPNA, which may spread into the KBPI region briefly. Things
change after sunrise with the approach of the next system. SHSN
will arrive at KJAC midmorning, and continue through the remainder
of the short term. Some -SN could reach KBPI/KPNA during the
afternoon, but any that does will be brief. Remainder of TAF sites
will experience strong gusty winds again during the afternoon,
with multiple sites approaching 50kt gusts. The gusty winds are
not forecast to relax until after 06Z Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 231 PM MST Mon Dec 21 2020
Snow has ended across the west, but relative humidity remains very
wet. Smoke dispersal is poor to fair today, except where there are
some breezy winds from Rock Springs to Casper. Snow showers enter
the region again Tuesday morning with the passage of a cold front.
Most of the snow will fall across the western mountains, with 2 to 3
inches in the western valleys. East of the Divide, minimal snowfall
is expected with highest amounts near Lander and Casper. Windy
Tuesday morning across Lander and Cody/Clark and the east slopes of
the Wind River Mountains and Absarokas and then increasing during
the afternoon from Buffalo south and also at Dubois, Riverton, and
the Wind Corridor from Kemmerer to Rock Springs to Casper. Snow
tapers off Tuesday night and the rest of the week will remain
mainly dry.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for WYZ019-027>030.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ015-018.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
for WYZ010.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ002-003-
016.
High Wind Watch from 5 AM MST Tuesday through Tuesday evening
for WYZ020.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
WYZ004.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
WYZ017.
&&
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Clayton
AVIATION...Straub
FIRE WEATHER...Fisher