Heavy Rain in Virginia, September 9 to 10, 2020

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal trough currently off the coastal Carolinas pushes
inland today. This will result in increased clouds and numerous
showers to gradually return to the region. A boundary approaches
the local area from the north Thursday night and crosses part
of the local area during the day on Friday. That front stalls
over the region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Wx conditions didn't deteriorate too much across the local
Tue...however...a (prolonged?) period of unsettled/wet wx does
begin today. Hi pres remains from the wrn Atlantic to the gulf
states while a strong trough dives through the Rockies. Would
think we'd have typical late Summer wx but moisture will continue
to increase from the SE as weak sfc lo pres approaches the
coastal Carolinas...tracking NW into the weakness of the area of
hi pres. Lower clouds have arrived over most of the FA attm w/
exception to areas N and NW. Initially...SHRAs will be spreading
NNW across NE NC into SE VA this morning. By this afternoon...SHRAs
will become more widespread...ISOLD tstms are poss but instability
will be generally limited (mainly confined to SE VA-NE NC).
Locally heavy rain is poss as PW's rise to aoa 2". While we've
dried out some since the heavy rain events in early August (and
FFGs are generally 2-3"/1 hour and 3-5"/3 hours)...a few
instances of urban/poor drainage flooding may occur later today.
Will mention potential HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

While some diurnal "weakening" of pcpn coverage is expected
tonight...at least SCT SHRAs (some w/ heavy downpours?) are
likely to persist. Otw...mostly cloudy-overcast and humid w/
lows in the u60s-l70s (except m70s in parts of SE VA/NE NC).

The unsettled pattern with SCT-numerous SHRAs/ISOLD tstms
continues through the end of the week (highest coverage from
early aftn through evening each day). PoPs generally range from
50-70% on Thu. Local heavy rain will be poss again. Will keep
that mention is HWO. Highs Thu mainly in the l80s (m80s far
S-SE). Humid Muggy Thu night w/ ISOLD-SCT SHRAs continuing. Lows
generally range from 70-75F. The strong cold front that is
currently stretching from the ern Great Lakes-srn Plains slowly
crosses the local area (from the NNW) Fri...but weakens some as
it does so. Little or no noticeable clearing/drying is expected
w/-behind the front. PoPs Fri 30-40% N...50-70% S. Highs in the
u70s-around 80F N to 80-85F S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

This weekend into early next week remains unsettled with a boundary
sitting nearby. This, along with a series of shortwaves moving
across the northeast will keep the chance of showers/storms in
the forecast each day. A cold front crosses the area late Monday
into early Tuesday, which will bring some drier wx to the area
through mid week. High temps will be near normal to slightly
below normal ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Generally
humid conditions will keep low temps above normal ranging from
the mid to upper 60s with around 70 close to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

Lower CIGS continue to creep inland/NW as onshore flow persists.
BKN-OVC MVFR CIGs will generally prevail through the 06Z TAF
forecast period...w/ IFR CIGs poss...esp SE VA-NE NC. ISOLD are
slow to spread NNW from the coastal Carolinas this morning. More
widespread coverage of SHRAs and even poss ISOLD tstms midday
into this evening. Coverage of pcpn most likely diminishes
somewhat tonight...but MVFR/IFR stratus is expected to persist
across the terminals Wed night. Widespread SHRAs...and possible
ISOLD afternoon/evening tstms are expected on Thu and Fri w/
potential fog/stratus during the morning hours. BKN-OVC clouds
and high PoPs will remain through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered off the Canadian
maritimes. At the same time, an inverted trough was located just
off the Outer Banks. This was resulting in ENE winds at 5-15 kt.
Seas were 3-4 ft and waves were 1-3 ft waves. A similar pressure
pattern is expected to prevail through Wed. Therefore, a 5-15
kt ENE wind is expected to continue, with seas 3-4 ft, and
around 4 ft off the NE NC coast.

The pressure gradient relaxes Wed night through Thu night, with
ENE winds 5-10 kt. High pressure builds toward and across New
England Fri into Sat, which pushes a cold front through the
region. Stronger NE then E winds will push into the area Fri
aftn through Sat. SCA conditions will be possible from Fri aftn
through Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ERI
LONG TERM...CMF
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
416 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-509>525-092030-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
416 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
from Wednesday through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy
rainfall from the showers and storms could result in a few instances
of urban or poor drainage flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-VAZ098-092030-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
416 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
from Wednesday through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy
rainfall from the showers and storms could result in a few instances
of urban or poor drainage flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-092030-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
416 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected each day
from Wednesday through at least the end of the week. Locally heavy
rainfall from the showers and storms could result in a few instances
of urban or poor drainage flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.