Isolated severe thunderstorm associated with a weak frontal boundary produced damaging winds across portions of central Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorm associated with a weak frontal boundary produced damaging winds across portions of central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 3:11 PM EST, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 411 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic coast through Monday, before moving farther offshore on Tuesday. Low pressure moves from the deep south to the Carolina coast on Wednesday, and lingers along the coast through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday... Latest analysis indicates weak sfc high pressure centered along the mid-Atlantic coast with a NW flow aloft. The showers/tstms from this morning that developed E of I-95 have diminished and with the shortwave energy also now off the Delmarva coast, conditions have stabilized quite a bit (not even seeing much in the way of cu E of I-95). Overall, the best chance for showers/tstms into the evening will be from storms that have moved off the Appalachians drifting ESE into the Piedmont where ML CAPES are near 3000 J/Kg. (primarily to the N of Farmville). Have PoPs of 30-50% across the Piedmont, tapered to 20-30% into metro RIC, with 20% or less closer to the coast where the onshore flow (and somewhat lower dew pts are making it significantly more stable). Isolated storms capable of producing strong winds into this evening over the NW. PoPs diminish later this evening but have maintained some chance through 06Z acrs the Piedmont. Lows mainly 70-75F with some upper 60s interior southern Va/NE NC. Heights aloft rise slightly on Mon as do H8 temps. Not expecting any AM convection as the flow becomes S to SSW. Highs will range from the mid 90s in the interior with upper 80s to lower 90s on the coast. Best chance for convection looks to be across the N during the late aftn/evening (~40%) with only about 20% for the southern 1/2 of the CWA. SPC has a marginal risk across the N where somewhat steeper mid level lapse rates and shear could lead to isolated strong/severe storms. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... Chance PoPs linger Mon evening across the N, otherwise drying overnight with lows mainly 70-75F. By Tue, developing low pressure across the deep south will slowly move NE closer to the local area, but latest 12Z/05 GFS/NAM/ECMWF generally remain in good agreement that the deeper moisture will stay S of the local area. Thus, PoPs will again be mainly diurnal with just scattered 30-40% coverage from the mid/late aftn into the evening (PoPs staying only around 20% near the coast). Highs will be slightly cooler compared to Mon, primarily in the upper 80s at the immediate coast and over most of NE NC, with lower 90s elsewhere. From Tue night into early Wed, the low moves E across the Carolinas and then is expected to linger along the Carolina coast by Wed aftn with weak steering flow aloft. Have at least some PoPs across the southern zones all night Tue night, spreading N on Wed. It will be humid with dew pts into the lower to mid 70s and highs will be slightly cooler (especially in the S) due to more clouds, ranging from the mid 80s S to around 90F N. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Friday... 05/12z global models and associated ensemble suites continue to depict an upper low and broad surface low pressure in vicinity of the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time, the general consensus is for this system to lift NE Thursday night into Friday as a strengthening upper level trough drops into the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. Forecast PoPs Thursday range from 20-30% N to 40-50% S, and then 40- 50% across most of the area Friday and Saturday, and trending back toward a 20-30% climo PoP by Sunday. Forecast highs are generally in the mid/upper 80s Thursday, and then upper 80s to low 90s (mid 80s at the immediate coast) Friday through Sunday and these values are very typical for early July. Forecast lows are mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail this aftn at area terminals but there are scattered tstms moving off the Appalachians into the Piedmont. After about 22Z, some of these could potentially make it as far E as RIC and have covered this with "VCTS" group. Elsewhere conditions are likely too stable near the coast for any showers/tstms. Winds become light southerly overnight and on Mon. Patchy fog is possible after midnight but is expected to stay in the Piedmont and away from the main terminals. Scattered showers/tstms will be possible again Mon aftn. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions expected for Mon night/Tue though again with scattered aftn/early evening showers/tstms. At this time, there is a somewhat increased chc of showers/tstms from Wed aftn through Thu as low pressure is forecast to become located in vicinity of the Carolinas. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... 5-10 kt winds across the waters this afternoon, southerly from Cape Charles northward and southeasterly from the mouth of the Ches bay south. Waves are around 1 ft with 2 ft near the mouth of the bay while seas offshore are 2-3 ft. SSE winds increase to 10-15 kt (highest generally from Cape Henry N) this evening then become S and SSW later tonight. Much of the same is expected for Monday and Tuesday with 5-10 kt SSE flow becoming S and SSW 10-15 in the late afternoon into the evening. Waves generally 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. The picture become a bit murky for the mid/late week period with global models generally agreeing on a trough or closed low aloft over the Mid Atlantic/SE and a modest surface low near the Carolina coast on Wednesday. Thereafter, solutions diverge considerably with respect to the track and timing of the surface low through the region. Went with a blended approach showing increasing onshore flow and seas starting Wednesday night into early Friday from south to north. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday... Modestly increasing south and southeasterly winds this evening will combine with high astronomical tides tonight into early Monday, resulting in the potential for minor coastal flooding for the bay facing portions of the lower MD eastern shore. Nuisance flooding is also possible along the Northern Neck/Potomac river counties as well as VA portions of the eastern shore this evening and tonight. Additional flooding is possible during the high tide cycle Monday night with continued southerly flow. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...LKB/TMG MARINE...MPR/RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 407 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092- 093-095>100-509>525-060815- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward- Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia- Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick- Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 407 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
404 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
VAZ048-052045-
Fluvanna-
404 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FLUVANNA COUNTY...
At 403 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lake
Monticello, or 7 miles southeast of Charlottesville, moving southeast
at 5 mph.
Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.
In addition...Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Palmyra, Lake Monticello, Troy, Nahor, Bybee, Central Plains,
Antioch, Cunningham, Union Mills, Wildwood and Zion Crossroads.
Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.
LAT...LON 3800 7831 3797 7822 3796 7820 3795 7817
3794 7817 3775 7833 3785 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 303DEG 6KT 3794 7843
ButnerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
443 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
VAZ048-052130-
Fluvanna-
443 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FLUVANNA COUNTY...
At 443 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Lake
Monticello, or near Palmyra. the storm is nearly stationary.
Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.
In addition...Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Palmyra, Lake Monticello, Troy, Nahor, Shores, Zion Crossroads,
Central Plains, Antioch, Union Mills, Wildwood, Bybee, Cohasset,
Carysbrook, Wilmington and Cunningham.
Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/akq and submit your report via social media when you can
do so safely.
LAT...LON 3800 7831 3800 7829 3799 7827 3798 7823
3796 7820 3795 7817 3793 7812 3780 7821
3773 7836 3782 7847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 305DEG 4KT 3790 7838
ButnerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
644 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
VAZ060-061-052330-
Cumberland-Prince Edward-
644 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND
AND CENTRAL PRINCE EDWARD COUNTIES...
At 644 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Rice to near Evergreen. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.
Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.
In addition...Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Farmville, Longwood University, Hampden Sydney, Hampden Sydney
College, Darlington Heights, Prospect, Rice, Raines Tavern, Tuggle,
Allens Mill, Hawk, Kingsville, Elam, Reeds, Stoddert and Worsham.
Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/akq and submit your report via social media when you can
do so safely.
LAT...LON 3726 7868 3732 7863 3734 7860 3740 7859
3739 7858 3738 7859 3735 7855 3735 7854
3733 7851 3733 7849 3734 7849 3734 7846
3744 7839 3740 7826 3735 7823 3725 7824
3719 7864 3719 7868 3720 7869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 300DEG 9KT 3733 7833 3728 7881
ButnerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
656 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
VAZ060-061-052345-
Cumberland-Prince Edward-
656 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND
NORTHEASTERN PRINCE EDWARD COUNTIES...
At 656 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Farmville,
moving southeast at 10 mph.
Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Farmville, Longwood University, Rice, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert
and Hawk.
Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3733 7849 3734 7849 3733 7847 3734 7846
3743 7840 3738 7824 3737 7824 3737 7823
3730 7823 3725 7824 3719 7832 3733 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 301DEG 8KT 3735 7841
ButnerThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 144 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:46 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were downed across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 911032.