A deep upper level trough digging into the Four Corners Region brought strong winds to the Guadalupe Mountains.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A deep upper level trough digging into the Four Corners Region brought strong winds to the Guadalupe Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 27, 6:36 AM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
736 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020
.UPDATE...
Started High Wind Warning earlier.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
GDP has already hit high wind speeds as of 12z so moved up time
for start of warning for the mountains. Went ahead and moved up
time for start of wind advisory for the plains too.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions with an abundance of mid and high clouds are expected
at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24
hours. Southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph will increase to 20 to 30
mph and gusty by early this afternoon and continuing through this
evening.
12
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020/
.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over California will move east today into the
Four Corners Region by this evening. Strong upper level westerly
winds on the southern periphery of the low will mix into the
Guadalupe Mountains with very windy conditions extending into the
adjacent plains. The wind forecast may be a little high with high
clouds inhibiting mixing, and some models are suggesting lighter
winds aloft but the warning/advisory should still verify. Cloud
cover and cooler air aloft will cool today from yesterday, with a
pacific front moving through tonight bringing additional cooling
on Saturday.
The confidence in the forecast for next week is low. Zonal upper
level flow, typical for this time of year, is very difficult for
the models to handle. The various models show varying solutions
and the ensemble 500mb height standard deviation product shows
very high uncertainty. What does this mean? Westerly flow will
send a series of upper disturbances across the central United
States with strength and timing difficult to nail down with
certainty. In situations like this ensemble guidance is usually
best, though it does tend to smooth out extremes. You will see
this in the current forecast which is based on the NBM ensemble
guidance that has steady highs and lows for the week. There will
probably be a day or two that will have temperatures spike ahead
of a front but whose timing is uncertain at this time and
therefore is not accounted for.
Hennig
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite an abundance of mid and high clouds, more drying with
above normal temperatures and breezy conditions are expected this
afternoon through mid evening across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico. RFTI values of 4-5 along with ERC'S in the 25th to 50th
percentile will result in elevated fire weather concerns across
the southeast New Mexico Plains, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains,
the Trans Pecos Region and Big Bend of west Texas. Will issue a
Fire Danger Statement for these locations. A Pacific cold front
will plow through the area overnight with breezy west winds
continuing with mainly poor recovery Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be considerably cooler Saturday behind the front
but increased drying with breezy conditions and clear skies will
probably result in more elevated weather concerns across much of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Another Fire Danger Statement
will likely be issued for a considerable portion of the region
for Saturday afternoon. Fuels will continue to dry Sunday and the
next significant fire weather day appears to be Monday as the next
strong storm system brings widespread windy nad dry conditions to
the region. By Monday fuels may be dry enough to support a more
significant fire weather threat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 86 49 68 44 / 0 10 0 0
Carlsbad 80 42 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 91 58 78 50 / 0 10 0 0
Fort Stockton 85 48 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 67 33 56 41 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 78 41 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 74 36 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 84 48 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 83 46 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 84 45 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.
High Wind Warning until 2 AM MDT Saturday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Davis Mountains-Davis
Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Loving-Reeves
County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
High Wind Warning until 2 AM MDT Saturday for Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 506 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082- 270>282-281015- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler- Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County- Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- 506 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 /406 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2020/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A High Wind Warning is in effect today and tonight for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains including Guadalupe Pass. A Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon and this evening for the southeast New Mexico Plains, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, upper Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. Dry and breezy conditions will result in near critical fire weather conditions today through this evening for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, upper Trans Pecos, and Big Bend. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Saturday. More significant fire weather is expected Monday across southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 883668, 883667.