Very moist air streaming into the region interacted with a slow moving cold frontal boundary draped across the region from west to east. Significant amounts of elevated instability existed above the frontal boundary which allowed morning thunderstorms to become severe as they moved across the South Plains and Rolling Plains.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Very moist air streaming into the region interacted with a slow moving cold frontal boundary draped across the region from west to east. Significant amounts of elevated instability existed above the frontal boundary which allowed morning thunderstorms to become severe as they moved across the South Plains and Rolling Plains. The complex of thunderstorms produced mostly penny to quarter size hail on the caprock with mostly pea size hail off the caprock.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 17, 5:45 AM CST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 645 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 .AVIATION... Showers developing rapidly over eastern New Mexico. Trajectory suggests these may approach KPVW initially. If so, amendments may be needed. We have continued the LIFR for fog and low visibility for the next several hours, with showers and thunder becoming more prevalent by midday and also visibilities and ceilings beginning to improve significantly around that time. Keep in mind that a Convective Slight Risk and Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms covers this area today. Storms should mostly steer to the east late this afternoon and early evening. LIFR with fog and low clouds is a possibility again late tonight. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020/ SHORT TERM... Very moist east-southeast low level flow this morning was becoming strongly entrenched with arrival of an additional push from the east that is expected to become quasi-stationary later today from the northwestern South Plains through the central South Plains and into the southern Rolling Plains. This is expected to become an axis for the formation zone of strong to severe thunderstorms later today. For this morning, solutions in decent agreement with development of showers and thunderstorms spreading north on the head of a low level jet axis over the area, maturing when entering the axis mentioned above. Strongest thunderstorm potential may occur by early afternoon on the Caprock, then shift into the Rolling Plains later this afternoon and early evening. Convective instability potential is dramatically improved today, with between 1300 and 1900 Joules of potential convective energy. Deep layered shear values near 35-40 knots will increase perhaps close to 50 knots later today. This combination should support potential for at least golfball hail and wind gusts to 70 mph, as well as an isolated tornado threat. Storm motion will be countered by some tendency for storms to lock onto the boundary, so there also will be a risk for localized flooding. Mature complex of storms should pull gradually east through the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains late this afternoon and evening maintaining severe potential at least through the evening. We have added mention of severe thunderstorms from this afternoon through the evening. Later tonight, the bulk of the convective system should be east of the area with the airmass stabilizing. Low level flow likely to favor easterly or southeast component this evening from storm outflows, settling overnight to lighter south or southeast breezes. Dense fog early this morning should eventually become disrupted mid to late morning by developing showers and thunderstorms. We added a Dense Fog Advisory for areas on the Caprock into the northern Rolling Plains through late this morning. There will be potential again late tonight for fog over much of the area. RMcQueen LONG TERM... Wednesday will be another severe risk day. A number of ingredients will go into producing what may begin as cellular convection but quickly morph into a more linear mode. On the broad scale, by Wednesday afternoon, a shortwave is progged to eject from the main flow an an upper-level low beginning to kick northeastward from the Desert SW. At the same time, a surface low will be deepening over southeastern CO ahead of the shortwave feature. Narrowing in, decent daytime heating is expected to occur, with highs warming into the 70s thanks to a break in cloud cover midday. Dewpoints in the 40s across our western counties to 50s on the Rolling Plains will also exist. Models are quite varied on CAPE values, anywhere from 500 to 2000 J/kg, but they do agree that bulk shear will be impressive around 50KT...even into the 60KT range as you head off the Cap. Soundings indicate storm motion to be anywhere from 30-40 mph; therefore, a damaging wind threat, maybe even a tornado or two, are the likely severe threats for late tomorrow afternoon and evening. The NAM also brings in PWATs on the order of 1-1.5" with other models keeping to around 1" or less. Should the NAM moisture return come to fruition, we'll also be looking at a heavy rain threat; however, at this time, we have kept to a moderate rain mention. Timing of initiation will depend on the arrival of the shortwave and the eroding of any capping inversion, but generally expect late afternoon development across eastern NM that quickly sweeps east over the evening and overnight hours. On Thursday, as the upper and surface lows depart, a tightening gradient and excellent mixing to H7 will develop. The GFS brings a jet max at H7 of up to 60KT squarely across the forecast area, with other models keeping to the 40-50KT range. Either way, Thursday is expected to be a "West Texas" day with winds near or at advisory level. By Friday morning, a cold front whips through with a decently cold air mass for this time of year. The timing of this front may wreak havoc on Friday morning lows, as an earlier arrival may bring a more widespread freeze. Otherwise, Saturday will see a hard freeze across a good portion of our forecast area. We're not quite to growing season yet, but still worth mention for pets, pipes and any plants that might be sensitive to these temperatures. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>036- 039>042. && 99/99/05
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 847 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 TXZ021>044-181400- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 847 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. Dense fog will be widespread for areas on the Caprock and into the northern Rolling Plains through late this morning. Visibilities near or less than a quarter of a mile are expected. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into tonight from the central and eastern South Plains into the Rolling Plains. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms will cover the western South Plains and the southern Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms today will have potential for hail to the size of golfballs, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, localized flooding, and possibly brief tornadoes. Dense fog may develop again late tonight in some areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be likely Wednesday very late afternoon through late evening, along with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flooding. Strong winds, near or at advisory level are likely on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:52 UTC.
3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A swath of quarter size hail was reported along Texas Highway 114 from approximately five miles west of Levelland to Smyer. No damage was reported.
Numerous reports of penny size hail were reported across the western portion of the city of Lubbock with one report of quarter size hail near the intersection of Slide Road and US Highway 62/82. No damage was known.
A report was received of quarter size hail in Ralls. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 872170, 872171, 872172.