Drought in Texas, March 17 to 31, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1240 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR to MVFR conditions are expected overnight, with
most showers or any thunderstorms staying well south of the RGV.
Early cloud cover should deteriorate quickly late this morning
with VFR ceilings expected into this evening. SE winds increase
this afternoon, with gusts around 20 kts. MVFR ceilings are
possible again by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Surface observations and satellite imagery continue to
show a mix of mid and high level clouds across Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley, with VFR conditions prevailing early
this evening. Overnight, ceilings will lower to MVFR at all 3 TAF
sites with IFR ceilings expected briefly at primarily KBRO, and
then ceilings will raise back to VFR tomorrow afternoon. Convection
is expected to stay to the west of all TAF sites tonight, so have
left out the mention of any rain/thunder for this forecast
package. Southeast winds will decrease tonight, but are expected
to become breezy again tomorrow afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): KBRO doppler radar has
really quieted down from since earlier this morning. Only a few
isolated, very light showers remain across the area as of 2 PM
CDT. Don't really expect much more development this afternoon or
this evening, but cannot completely rule out a stray shower or
two.

Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible after midnight tonight for far western portions of the
CWA, as another mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to rotate
northeastward over southwest Texas. Convection has struggled to
remain organized as it crosses the Rio Grande over the past few
nights/early mornings, so only mentioning 20% PoPs between 06-12z
Tuesday. Otherwise, with upper-level ridging in place, Tuesday
looks very warm and mainly dry. Although most locations across the
CWA will remain dry, there could be some coastal streamer
showers, and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, that develop
Tuesday afternoon; confidence is not very high with this scenario,
so only left PoPs at 20% for areas along and east of I-69E. A
QLCS will develop across western Texas early Tuesday evening and
move eastward into central/southwestern Texas through the night. A
few forecast models have the QLCS backbuilding into northeast
Mexico and moving across the Rio Grande over Zapata/Starr Counties
around sunrise Wednesday. Threw in 20% PoPs due to model
uncertainty. Model trends for this activity will continue to be
monitored over the next 24 hours.

Expect abnormally warm temperatures to continue through the
short- term period, with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Highs on
Tuesday will climb into the mid-upper 80s east and low-mid 90s
west as slightly drier air moves into the area.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Similar short wave energy
will move through the southwest mid level flow Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning and maybe even Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, but energy looks a little weaker and farther north and
certainty is not high enough to include much in the way of rain
chances for deep South Texas and the RGV for those two days.

A storm system will develop over the Central High Plains
Wednesday through Thursday, enhancing southeast winds, especially
over eastern sections, to at least breezy for both days. Rain
chances will increase as early as late Thursday and will continue
through Sunday night with the approach of and interaction with a
cold front.

Temperatures through Friday will be well above normal. Increased
rain chances and cloud cover will help hold temperatures down
Saturday and Sunday as much as the initial air mass from upstream,
reinforced Saturday by air traveling from far away Canada. Below
average temperatures Saturday and Sunday should rebound to near
normal by Sunday. Friday night through Saturday should be the best
chance for light to moderate showers and a few hundredths to even
a few tenths of an inch of rain for some areas. Guidance suggests
that isolated thunderstorm chances will be best Friday night into
Saturday as well. Chances will taper off Sunday morning as the
front pushes back north and the mid level flow temporarily
flattens a bit to a more west southwest flow.

MARINE:
Now through Tuesday Night...No major changes were made from the
previous marine forecast. Surface high pressure remains in control
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with low pressure across
northern Mexico and developing low pressure across the Plains by
Tuesday. This keeps a light to moderate southeasterly flow across
the lower Texas coastal waters through Tuesday, allowing seas to
stay generally 2 to 4 feet, and mainly driven by ESE to SE swell.
Isolated streamer showers will be possible again Tuesday
morning/afternoon. Sea surface temperatures have risen over the
past couple of days, so expect patchy sea fog to become less of an
issue each morning into this week.

Wednesday through Saturday night...Generally moderate southeast
winds and seas will prevail, as high pressure remains and will
remain in control over the Gulf of Mexico. Slightly stronger winds
and building seas will occur at times. Stronger winds will occur
on the Laguna Madre on Tuesday and Wednesday, likely requiring
small craft should exercise caution headlines. On the Gulf, winds
will increase on Wednesday, pushing nearshore conditions into
small craft should exercise caution territory, from which they
will bounce in and out through Saturday due to moderate to high
seas. A similar situation is expected offshore starting Wednesday,
but seas may build into low end small craft advisory territory
through the weekend due to the addition of a swell component to
wave heights. Finally, a cold front arriving on Friday will back
generally moderate winds to east and northeast through the end of
the forecast Saturday night.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

56-Hallman...Aviation

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
332 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-172100-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
332 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
through the entire forecast period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-172100-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
332 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower Texas Coast
Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.