Damaging Winds in South Dakota, June 6, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
519 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Latest surface analysis shows warm front has pushed northward
into northeastern Wyoming along with southwestern and south
central South Dakota, with the boundary roughly located from the
far northeastern corner of WY to the Black Hills then eastward
to north of KPHP. The front will continue to push northward this
aftn and eve. Temperatures to the south of the front are mainly in
the 80s to lower 90s with mid-70s to the north of the front.
Dewpoints to the south of the front on the SD side are in the
60s, and around 50F in NE WY. KUNR 20Z special sounding shows
warming temperatures above 500mb when compared to the 12Z
sounding, along with an inversion remaining around 825mb.
Relatively thick cloud cover through much of the day has acted to
limit heating and instability. While a few thunderstorms have
managed to develop over parts of NE WY and the Black Hills, it
appears that more widespread convection will not develop until the
main wave, currently speeding northward across southern Wyoming,
reaches the forecast area around 00z. Main severe threat over
northeastern Wyoming appears to be damaging winds with some large
hail possible. On the South Dakota side 0-3km bulk shear will
reach 40-50kts with the highest values currently in a narrow band
south of the warm front to the southeast of the Black Hills. With
the higher dewpoints and lower LCLs some QLCS tornadoes may occur
with any bowing segments, especially along and near the warm
front, however strong straight line winds are the most likely
severe threat over western SD as well. The convection will move
rapidly off to the northeast and out of most of the forecast area
by 05Z. Very windy conditions will develop over parts of
northeastern Wyoming this evening. Gusts around 55 mph are
possible between around 9PM and midnight.

On Sunday, the upper trough will remain to the west, while the
moist/unstable sector will have largely pushed of the the east of
our area. However, a strong upper jet streak approaching the
region combined with low-level cyclogenesis will facilitate some
moist advection back into cntrl/nwrn SD. SB/MLCAPE will be
somewhat limited outside of cntrl SD, with around 500-1000J/KG
from the Black Hills to the east and 1000-2000J/KG closer to
cntrl SD. Deep-layer shear will be stronger closer to the jet
across wrn SD (50-60 kt) and weaker to the east (30-40 kt over
scntrl SD). Taken together, could again see some supercells across
wrn/cntrl SD capable of large hail and strong to severe winds.

By Monday, any threat for strong to severe storms will have largely
moved east of our area, aside from maybe s cntrl SD, as cooler low-
level temps arrive behind a sfc front. Good agreement in guidance
that the mid-upper trof will rapidly shift ewd Monday and Tuesday,
ushering in a generally cooler and somewhat drier pattern for much
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 513 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Strong line of TSRA will move through NE WY and the Black Hills region
of W SD between 00z and 0230Z. Wind gusts up to 65kts are possible
with the passage of these storms...with local IFR conds possible
with isold large hail also possible. Aft 03z TSRA will exit all
terminal locations. Gusty SW winds will exist behind the exiting
storms in NE WY through the overnight hours. Except for vcnty of
TSRA...VFR conds are expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Hintz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
527 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

SDZ001-002-012>014-025-032-072-073-WYZ071-071300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Foot Hills-Haakon-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-
Southern Meade Co Plains-Northeastern Crook-
527 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...and northeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. 70 to 80 MPH or greater wind gusts, golfball size
hail or larger, and isolated tornadoes are possible along with
locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
and early evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

WYZ054>058-071300-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Western Crook-
Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-
527 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Wyoming...and the Black Hills of Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening. The main risks will be large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible
Sunday afternoon and early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ024-026>031-041>044-046-047-049-074-071300-
Northern Black Hills-Rapid City-Southern Foot Hills-
Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-Custer Co Plains-
Pennington Co Plains-Fall River-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-
Mellette-Todd-Tripp-Hermosa Foot Hills-
527 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 /627 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...and the Black Hills of
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. 70 to 80 MPH or greater wind gusts, golfball size
hail or larger, and isolated tornadoes are possible along with
locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may occur with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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