Tornadoes and Damaging Winds in Florida, June 6, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
401 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...A Marginal Risk of Severe Weather Into This Evening with
Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible...
...A Flood Watch Remains In Effect Through Sunday Evening...

Through tonight...Embedded shortwaves and positive vorticity
advection in the flow aloft will provide the necessary lift to
keep rain chances high in our tropical-like airmass. Focus for
heaviest rainfall will continue to be across Osceola/Brevard
counties northward, and especially north Orlando where multiple
rounds of showers/storms will be possible the rest of this
afternoon and tonight. Locations that see these multiple rounds of
heavier showers and/or storms may see 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts possible. Rain chances continue 70-80% across these
areas.

The Treasure Coast counties have underperformed so far (which is a
good thing due to excessive rainfall over the past several days),
and the HRRR has been consistent in keeping the heavier precip to
the north the rest of today and tonight. However, scattered
showers and a couple of storms still expected to develop across
these areas, but PoPs have been lowered to 40-50% across these
areas.

A tornado or two also remain possible as storm-relative helicity
is progged to increase on the order of 150 m^2/s^2. The higher
threat appears to be west of I-95 across all of east central
Florida this afternoon and evening, and possibly into the early
overnight hours north of Orlando.

Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday-Tuesday (previous)...Deep layer S-SW flow on the periphery
of T.S. "Cristobal" will will continue Sun, keeping the local air
mass nearly saturated (PWATs 2.0 to 2.2") with likely-categorical
POPS continuing. Showers/storms with torrential rainfall amounts
of 2-3" (locally higher) are likely. This will aggravate ongoing
inundation and standing water issues, especially in areas which
have already received copious rainfall since the last few days in
May. A Flood Watch will continue for most of ECFL through the
diurnal convective cycle Sun afternoon. Clouds-precip will hold
temps down in the L80s to around 85F. Mins generally in the L70s.

A meridionally-oriented mid level ridge will develop from the Ohio
Valley into Florida through Mon-Tue. While steering T.S. "Cristobal"
north toward a central Gulf coast landfall by Sun evening, it will
also cause the steering winds across Florida to collapse. While the
temporal distribution of showers and storms should return to a more
typical diurnal cycle, high PWAT air (2.0"-2.2" Mon, 1.8"-2.0" Tue)
will continue areawide. Likely (60-70) POPs continue for both days.
Given the dearth of steering flow, showers/storms will tend to rain
themselves out where they develop. This will remain problematic
(slightly moreso Monday, given deeper moisture) for areas where
heavy rain will have fallen through the weekend. Greater insolation
will translate into higher maxes (U80s-L90s), with mins remaining in
the L70s.

Wednesday-Saturday (previous)...Aforementioned mid level ridge
deforms between the short wave trough to its NW (which ejects
Cristobal's remnant low into the Great Lakes) and an amplifying
western Atlantic trough Wed-Thu. The ridge will tilt/shift NE and
then collapse as a trough develops over the eastern CONUS. NE mid
level flow will develop Wed, hen back to N and eventually W-NW
through the end of the week as the trough settles over the SE
CONUS.

At the surface, model guidance shows deep moisture getting shunted
westward for Wed-Thu as high pressure builds SW into Florida from
the Atlantic. This would both lower overall precip coverage while
shifting higher POPs into the western peninsula. By Fri-Sat, NW flow
from the developing upper trough will push a frontal trough and
deeper moisture back into FL, which would cause POPs to increase.

Max temps should shift to a little below climo Wed-Fri owing to
the shift to an onshore flow regime, then back to near normal Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and scattered storms through the evening with highest
coverage NW of a KISM-KTIX line. General MVFR restrictions with
some IFR conditions in the heavier showers and storms. Lingering
showers will continue this evening and tonight with heavier
activity from MCO northward. Tomorrow, general SE flow through the
afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and storms for all
TAF sites. Guidance shows general MVFR CIGS through most of the
day tomorrow, but confidence is low at this time. Went with
SCT035-040 and BKN/OVC100-120 with VCSH across all sites for the
afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

Through tonight...High coverage of showers/storms still in the
forecast, especially north of Sebastian Inlet. Torrential
downpours and lightning will be the main storm hazards, but winds
gusts in excess of 34 kt as well as slight chance of a waterspout
remain possible.

Sunday-Wednesday (modified previous)...Decreasing seas on tap
Mon-Tue as persistent light-moderate SE flow of the past several
days veers to S-SW, then collapses. Should see an uptick in seas
late Wed-Wed night as the high building from the NE into Florida
causes onshore winds to freshen. 2-4ft seas Sun, subside to 1-3ft
Mon- Tue, then build back to 3-4ft Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  84  70  89 /  90  80  30  60
MCO  75  84  73  91 /  90  80  40  70
MLB  77  86  73  89 /  60  60  30  60
VRB  77  86  71  89 /  40  60  30  50
LEE  74  83  72  91 /  90  80  40  70
SFB  74  84  72  91 /  90  80  40  60
ORL  75  84  73  90 /  90  80  40  70
FPR  78  87  72  90 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Indian River-Martin-
     Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-
     Seminole-Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM....Rodriguez
AVIATION...Watson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1058 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-070200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1058 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again this
afternoon across the area, mostly along and north of a line from
Lake Okeechobee to Brevard County. New rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are possible, with locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches
in stronger thunderstorms or areas under persistent rainfall.

Additional rainfall may cause continued flood concerns across
coastal Martin and Saint Lucie counties, where rain totals over
the last week have exceeded 12 inches. Inundation of neighborhood
streets is likely with continued road closures expected. Motorists
are reminded to never drive through a flooded roadway, regardless
of how deep you think the water may be.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today, with increasing coverage
this afternoon and decreasing in the evening. Storms will be
capable of producing localized gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph with
frequent lightning strikes, along with higher rainfall amounts. A
few funnel clouds could develop generating a brief weak tornado or
two this afternoon into tonight.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the east central coastal
waters and inland lakes today will be capable of producing wind
gusts of 34 knots. Mariners should seek safe harbor when storms
threaten.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Conditions are favorable for the development of a few waterspouts
across the area this afternoon into tonight. These spouts could
develop over large inland lands, rivers, the coastal waterways,
and adjacent Atlantic waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected from Sun through and mid week. Deadly cloud to
ground lightning strikes, minor to moderate flooding from heavy
rainfall, and gusty winds will be the primary storm threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather or flooding to the NWS while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
429 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

FLZ041-062045-
Inland Volusia-
429 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

At 428 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pierson, moving
north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pierson, Barberville, Eldridge, Seville and Bakerstown.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Local Atmospheric conditions are becoming more favorable for the
possibility of landspout formation. A landspout is a tornado of very
short duration and winds generally less than 60 mph which can cause
minor damage and injuries in its direct path. If this trend
continues, a tornado warning may be issued shortly. Stay tuned to
NOAA weather radio and local media for additional updates and
possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Melbourne.

LAT...LON 2926 8142 2926 8132 2918 8134 2918 8149
      2936 8151 2938 8145 2940 8143 2940 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 181DEG 12KT 2924 8142

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
531 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

FLZ045-053-062200-
Osceola-Orange-
531 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

At 530 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Celebration,
moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and funnel clouds are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Ocoee, Winter Garden and Windermere.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2827 8143 2827 8158 2834 8160 2853 8161
      2853 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 180DEG 12KT 2833 8151

Rodriguez