Damaging Wind in South Dakota, July 5, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
506 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Mean Pac NW upper trough will continue to support active SW flow
over the region, as deep moisture wavers over the area.
Outflow/frontal boundary hybrid has settled over the FA once
again, with plenty of LL moisture over the area, very similar to
yesterday. Diurnal heating will once again lower CIN across the
area this afternoon, esp over NE WY and the higher Black Hills
where convective initiation is expected. Mean heights have settled
south and will offer faster flow aloft with a sig increase in
deep layer shear by afternoon (50-60 knots). The next impulse
emanating from the Pac NW upper trough will push toward the region
with increasing support for TS activity. Weak subsidence will
suppress convection over the area at first (outside of waning
elevated convection over NW SD), with convection expected to
initiate over the Black Hills first. Convection will also develop
along the old trough axis, which will be situated across the
southern third, while the main impulse will likely support more
organized storms across WY, which may grow upscale into an MCS.
The env is certainly supportive for more widespread and higher end
severe given deep layer shear in excess of 50 knots, with
2000-3000 J/kg of deep layer shear by late afternoon and steep mid
level lapse rates. This will allow cells to quickly grow upscale,
with supercells being common, supporting the threat for very
large hail and damaging winds. Convection will spread east
overnight with lingering elevated activity possible through the
night. Frontal boundary will stall and over the western third
Monday, with moist and breezy SE upslope flow developing. Another
impulse will support support storms across the WY/MT in the
afternoon, with another round of severe weather expected given
1500-2000 J/KG of CAPE and 50-60 knots of deep layer shear.
Convective initiation will likely take place across eastern MT,
possibly as far south as NE WY, with either one or two dominate
supercells or a high end MCS traversing across the NW, shifting
ESE across western SD overnight. It remains uncertain whether
storms will fire over the Black Hills given concerns on capping.
If this occurs, a decent supercell would be possible there in the
late afternoon. Otherwise, convection will be possible nearly
every day in the remainder of the period as a sfc trough wavers
over the region in unsettled WSW flow with seasonally warm temps.
Overlap of deep moisture and faster flow will also support a
severe threat most days in portions of the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 503 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight, resulting in
MVFR/local IFR conditions. Some storms will be strong to severe.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. Storms will redevelop tomorrow, especially across
northwest and south central SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
453 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SDZ002-012>014-024>032-041>043-046-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-061100-
Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Mellette-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-
Southern Meade Co Plains-Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-
Southern Campbell-Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-
Northeastern Crook-
453 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 /553 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...south central South Dakota...southwestern South
Dakota...the Black Hills of South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...
and the Black Hills of Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through midweek. Strong
to severe storms will be possible at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ001-044-047-049-061100-
Harding-Bennett-Todd-Tripp-
453 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020 /553 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through midweek. Strong
to severe storms will be possible at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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