An incoming front brought high winds to at least one location in south central Oregon.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to at least one location in south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 4:13 AM PST, 4 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
413 AM PST Mon Nov 30 2020
Updated AVIATION and MARINE Sections
.DISCUSSION...A cold front will move onshore this morning. Latest
radar is showing a pre-frontal rain band moving onshore into NW
Douglas County, Coos and northern Curry Counties currently.
Observations are showing some brief wind gusts (30-40 mph) ahead
of/associated with this rain band at the higher elevation RAWS
sites and also along the coast. This band is running into a pretty
good dry layer, but will push steadily eastward this morning,
reaching the Roseburg/Illinois Valley area now-5 am, and the
Medford area and the Cascades 5-7 am. Expect some downslope drying
in the Rogue Valley, but there should be at least a little rain
in the Medford/Grants Pass/Cave Junction area this morning. It is
notable that temperatures have been hovering right around the
freezing mark all night in these valley areas, where low
clouds/fog have been persistent. It is possible that some rain
reaches the ground with temperatures near freezing in some areas.
We aren't overly concerned about freezing rain, however, since the
road surface temperatures and sub-surface temperatures are still
running a bit above freezing. And, with mixing expected as the
front moves through, temperatures should rise a few degrees from
where they are right now. Even so, please be careful and take it
slow if driving and it is raining early this morning. We expect a
little snow in the Cascades and Siskiyous today, generally 1-3
inches. Snow levels will be about 4000 feet. While precipitation
will have a hard time getting east of the Cascades due to westerly
downslope flow and a preceding dry air mass, we are still
expecting some gusty winds over there later this morning and into
this afternoon. Gusts to 50 mph are expected over the higher
terrain and also along Highway 31 near Summer Lake where a Wind
Advisory is in effect (NPWMFR). This will effectively end the Air
Stagnation Advisory, but probably only briefly.
Post-frontal showers continue from the mountains of western
Siskiyou County and the Cascades north and west this afternoon,
then expect these to dwindle in coverage by late this afternoon/
evening. It dries out tonight, but some fog/low clouds are likely
to return to the valleys west of the Cascades with surface high
pressure and upper ridging rebuilding quickly. The upper ridge
will persist through the rest of this week into the weekend,
likely resulting in another extended period of air stagnation and
the full complement of low clouds, fog and freezing fog in the
valleys west of the Cascades. Models continue to show a
disturbance moving into the ridge around Thursday, but it will
likely weaken and be deflected off to our south with minimal
impacts. For more details regarding the evolution of this
pattern...please refer to yesterday's extended forecast below.
-Spilde
Extended discussion...Wednesday morning 02 Dec through
Sunday night 06/07 Dec 2020. Not much change in the extended
period. Strong upper level ridging remains in the forecast and
another period of stagnant air with dry conditions and
overnight/morning fog and freezing fog for west side valleys
remains the story. Models show a trough approaching the area on
Thursday, however, it weakens considerably as it moves into the
strong upper ridge. The energy from this trough gets shunted to
the south and any moisture gets absorbed by the dry air from the
ridge. It does, however, help to shift the pattern some by
knocking the ridge down a bit. Another, stronger trough follows
late Saturday into Sunday, but it also weakens as it moves into
the area. Deterministic models as well as the vast majority of the
ensembles maintain dry conditions with this frontal passage.
However, it may be enough to mix out some of the stagnant air that
will have settled and persisted in the valleys during the
previous week.
Looking past next weekend, the National Blend of Models, as well as
the vast majority of model ensembles for both the GFS and EC,
support mostly dry conditions continuing into the second week of
December. Model ensembles indicate a more appreciable change around
December 9th/10th. /BR-y
&&
.AVIATION...For the 30/12Z TAFs...LIFR/IFR conditions in fog and low
clouds will persist in west side valleys.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail. A cold front at the coast will
move inland this morning. This is bringing lowering conditions to
coastal areas, and should spread inland early this morning. Ahead
of this, low level wind shear (LLWS) will be a in the Umpqua Basin.
Winds will become gusty across the east side and higher
terrain this morning. In the west side valleys IFR conditions will
return by early morning. Sven
&&
.MARINE...Updated 350 AM PST Monday 30 Nov 2020...A cold has moved
through the waters north of Cape Blanco, with gusty south winds
becoming northwest by mid morning as the front moves inland. Long
period northwest swell is moving in quickly behind the front.
Seas will peak this afternoon into the early evening with a high
long-period northwest swell of 14 to 17 feet at 15 to 17 seconds.
Seas are expected to diminish Tuesday into early Wednesday morning,
but a thermal trough will develop at the coast with seas remaining
high and steep Tuesday as north winds increase over the waters.
These winds will be strongest south of Gold Beach. Seas then remain
steep over the outer waters as they briefly diminish Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.
Models remain consistent in indicating a building long period west
to northwest swell Wednesday into Thursday with seas rising rapidly.
This is likely to combine with incoming tide and a shorter period
west-northwest swell at 13 seconds to bring an increased chance of
sneaker waves...with highest risk Wednesday but a continued risk as
seas build into Thursday. -Sven
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
ORZ023>031.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ030-031.
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Tuesday
for PZZ350-356.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ370-376.
MAS/SBN/MNFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A CWOP in Summer Lake reported a gust to 58 mph at 30/0846 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 922955.