Wildfire in Oklahoma, October 11 to 12, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will still be strong out of the west southwest
25-30kts gusting up to 40kts through 3-6z this evening, before a
cold front comes in tonight. North northwest winds 20-30kts
gusting up to 45kts possible behind the front. That wont last too
long, as by 7z all sites should fall to the 15kt range. Skies will
be mostly clear for the period and winds will become light and
variable around 13-15z period.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 228 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020/

SHORT TERM (through Monday night)...

Highlights for the short term are here in the first ~24 hours as
we encounter our first critical fire weather day of the fall fire
season and a strong cold front later tonight. Strong wind speeds
today coupled with low RH and receptive fuels are a recipe for
potential fire growth with any fires that happen to start.
Otherwise, we are looking at near record high temperatures again
today, and then a strong cold front sweeps through tonight which
will make for strong northerly winds. Temperatures tomorrow
afternoon will be about 15-20 degrees cooler than today with the
colder airmass sinking in, but those highs tomorrow are
surprisingly closer to normal for this time of year.

Surface analysis as of 2pm shows troughing over much of the Great
Plains; thanks in part to a deepening upper level trough over the
Rockies at 500mb. Position of the surface trough places the
Panhandles in west/southwest downsloping winds. RH values have
already tanked into the single digits. Forecast soundings already
show a good mixing profile, and this will only be amplified as we
reach peak heating later this afternoon with momentum transfer
producing wind speeds around 25-35 mph with gust closer to 40-45
mph. These surface conditions in place coupled with receptive
fuels are already producing critical fire weather conditions
across the forecast area. As a result, the Red Flag Warning will
go until 8 pm. By 9pm, we should start to see the cold front
making its way into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Height rises behind
the front are strong, on the order of 15-20 mb/6hr (~3-5mb/hr
along the front). These height rises will help blast the front
through rather quickly and should be south of Amarillo by 11pm.
The strong height rises will create gradient wind speeds along the
front around 30-35 mph for a brief period (gusts around 45-50
mph). So, the Oklahoma Panhandle (Texas/Beaver Counties) could
briefly see wind advisory conditions, but not long enough to
warrant the issuance of an advisory as these conditions may only
last an hour. By sunrise, wind speeds should be around 10-15 mph,
and by the afternoon we could be looking at light and variable
winds as a surface high develops over the Panhandles. Highs
tomorrow will be closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s with
plenty of sunshine. Overall, a nice fall day is expected on
Columbus Day to start the week.

Guerrero

LONG TERM...
Tuesday and Wednesday will see a warmup across the Panhandles,
with the temperatures getting back in the upper 80s and lower 80s.
By Wednesday, there will be a few more records which will be
threatened, as records in the lower 90s may be equaled or
exceeded. However, by Wednesday night and Thursday, the next cold
front will move through, bringing temperatures back to
normal...and then some. Current thinking is that afternoon highs
will remain in the 60s. Still not much in the way of rain chances.

We talked a bit yesterday about the potential pattern change
coming up in a little over a week. The medium range model
solutions aren't quite as aggressive as yesterday, but they are
still suggesting a long wave trough over the eastern and central
US. As mentioned yesterday, the details of the trough will be
important as to what will happen for us. But, at least there are
some consistent signals of showing the late October change in the
overall pattern.

Fox

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the combined
Panhandles this afternoon. ERC values have now approached the
70th to 96th percentile range as our prolonged dry streak
continues. These ERC values will coincide with a LLTR and strong
wind speeds at 700mb (30-40 knots) and 500 mb (40-50 knots) today.
The combination of low RH and strong wind speeds has already
resulted in RFTI values between 3 and 7 (isolated 8 at times) for
most of the area. RFTI values of this range coupled with high ERC
percentiles has yielded the need for a Red Flag Warning across
the forecast area today.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                46  76  49  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  43  77  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              38  75  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  48  79  52  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              43  78  46  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  46  76  48  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  75  50  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 38  75  41  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  41  75  45  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                46  78  47  87  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                46  76  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   48  77  51  85  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                52  76  48  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              54  78  48  87  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo
     Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...
     Wheeler.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

&&

89/24/14/24

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