Strong winds developed over far southwest North Dakota as stronger winds just above the surface mixed down in a dry lower atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
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The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
Strong winds developed over far southwest North Dakota as stronger winds just above the surface mixed down in a dry lower atmosphere during the afternoon hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 10:50 AM CST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1050 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Main changes for today was to speed up the increase in cloud cover, slow down the eastward expansion of POPs, and trim thunder chances to include only the southwest area for today. Regional radar and near term high res models indicating a tad slower eastward expansion of precipitation for today as the atmosphere will take a bit of time to saturate enough to see precipitation. Additionally, decreased chances over my far east as the frontal boundary triggering the precipitation stalls over mainly my central counties. Latest instability parameters are keying in on my southwest counties as having the best chance for lightning activity today so thunder chances were trimmed from the northwest and central to include southwest and perhaps far south central areas of the state. UPDATE Issued at 558 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Strong winds across the southwest and convective potential highlight the greatest challenges in the short term. Only a few light echoes remain associated with the departing wave that brought widespread showers to the area last night. As we remain in cyclonic northwest flow aloft, another shortwave was approaching western North Dakota this morning. Most of the west will be under the influence of the left exit region of a strong upper level jet through the day, which will help provide plenty of lift along a baroclinic zone that will quickly move its way across the state through the day. This pattern will result in a band of some light to moderate snow this morning across the southwest, before changing over to rain and eventually snow again as it spreads across the rest of the forecast area. A showery setup is shaping up once again very similar to yesterday, however, the best dynamics for convection will be mainly across the southern half of the area this afternoon. Nearly all guidance suggests steep low level lapse rates will be in place and the latest iterations of the RAP are suggesting that 0-1 km ML MUCAPE may approach 200 to 700 J/kg in the 18z to 22z time frame. Thus, there appears to be an opportunity for another few lightning strikes under the heaviest convective cores. The other story will be strong winds. RAP forecast soundings are very aggressive across the far southwest, mixing 40 to 60 knots of wind to the surface with inverted V profiles. As was the case yesterday, this is likely overdone but even a compromise between the other guidance and RAP, the Wind Advisory still looks to be a good bet, but the decision was made to take McKenzie county out as guidance has trended to less momentum transfer potential there. Decided to upgrade Bowman and Slope counties to a High Wind Warning as the most favorable soundings seem to line up well here. This is not a typical High Wind Warning setup with little to no cold air advection in the forecast, but the combination of very steep low level lapse rates, high momentum air relatively close to the ground, and enhanced downward motion from convective showers underneath inverted V soundings lend higher confidence that we could see a few gusts up to 60 mph somewhere over the far southwest. Later in the afternoon and evening, rain will mostly change to snow east of the Missouri River Valley, perhaps putting down a narrow band of accumulating snow up to an inch somewhere between the Highway 83 corridor and the southern James River Valley. Precipitation and winds will gradually begin to diminish and move out of the area into the overnight hours. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Another round of light rain and snow will move through Wednesday and Wednesday night with one more shortwave trough, which will then be followed by a broad ridge, warmer temperatures and dry weather for Thursday through Saturday. Thursday will once again feature breezy winds out of the northwest, with the strongest winds north and into the James River Valley. There will be another chance for rain and snow Sunday and Monday as the ridge moves east and another trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 558 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Expect winds to increase once again out of the west through the afternoon, especially across southwestern North Dakota where gusts ranging from 40 to 60 mph will be possible. As another band of rain and snow showers spreads across the state through the day, ceilings will drop but should generally remain in VFR categories (perhaps dipping into MVFR/IFR categories briefly). Under any stronger rain or snow shower, brief MVFR or even IFR/LIFR visibilities will be possible. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible. Wind and precipitation chances will diminish to the east tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NDZ040-043. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for NDZ031>033-041-044. && UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...ZH LONG TERM...ZH AVIATION...ZH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1104 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 NDZ031>033-041-044-041715- Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Hettinger-Adams- 1004 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Wind Advisory remains in effect. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-041715- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells- Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan- La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 1104 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 /1004 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2020/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ040-043-041715- Slope-Bowman- 1004 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A High Wind Warning remains in effect. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gusts are estimated based off the 59 mph wind gust reported by the Baker ASOS in Fallon County, Montana.
Wind gusts are estimated based off the 59 mph wind gust reported by the Baker ASOS in Fallon County, Montana.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, March 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 878292, 878293.