Thunderstorms increased in coverage over northwest and north central North Dakota along the nose of a low-level jet in an area of strong instability. One severe thunderstorm was reported, which produced estimated 60 mph wind gusts in Bottineau County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
Thunderstorms increased in coverage over northwest and north central North Dakota along the nose of a low-level jet in an area of strong instability. One severe thunderstorm was reported, which produced estimated 60 mph wind gusts in Bottineau County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 11:39 PM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Thunderstorms have increased in coverage in northwest North Dakota over the past hour or so as theta-e advection along the nose of a strengthening 850mb jet has increased. We can expect activity to continue or increase even through the next several hours until the jet shifts off to the east. While effective deep layer shear is somewhat marginal (30kts at most), steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg should provide enough for an isolated severe hail threat overnight. UPDATE Issued at 948 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 We will cancel Severe Thunderstorms Watch 397. Scattered thunderstorms are still forecast by several CAM models across teh northwest and north central later tonight. At this time we feel there is an isolated threat late tonight northwest and north central. UPDATE Issued at 808 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 With this update we will drop the southern counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397, Bowman, Slope, Adams, Hettinger and Stark. UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Scattered thunderstorms hugging the western border this evening. RAP soundings still show a weak EML across portions western North Dakota, which may be hindering some of the initiations. We slowed the eastward progression of the system slightly this evening. otherwise current forecast looks ok. UPDATE Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 This update for severe thunderstorms watch 397 for western North Dakota until 10 pm CDT. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be strong to severe thunderstorm chances later today through this evening west into north central. Currently, upper level ridge axis over the central Dakotas early this afternoon, with a potent S/WV upper trough lifting into southeastern Montana. Associated sfc trough stretched from south to north across northeastern Wyoming and far eastern Montana. Strong southerly flow ahead of the sfc trough has resulting in warm and humid conditions across western and central North Dakota, with heat index values well into the 90s many areas. The aforementioned S/WV will continue to lift north/northeast across eastern Montana this afternoon, then crosses into northwestern North Dakota early this evening. Not much has changed from earlier thinking regarding thunderstorm development, coverage, and severity. Convection still expected to fire off along the sfc trough axis/frontal boundary over far eastern MT or far western North Dakota during peak heating as forcing aloft increases, then proceed north and northeast over western and north central areas of the state through the evening. Plenty of instability for strong to severe storms with 2500-3500 J/kg of CAPE, though bulk shear is still lacking at roughly 20-30 Kts. Capping inversion will also likely limit storm coverage, and as mentioned in earlier discussions may suppress convection entirely especially farther south. Regardless, will keep the mention of severe in all products for the west and north central given the instability and forcing. Shear/deep layer mean wind vectors oriented mainly parallel to the surface trough, though maybe more orthogonal south though this area may remain capped but can't rule out a discrete storm or two here. To the north where the stronger forcing will be, a multicell mode with linear clusters would be more favored meaning damaging winds the primary threat. Severe storm risk should end by 09Z at the latest as the S/WV lifts north into Canada. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Warm and humid conditions continue both Friday and Saturday, especially over my southeast where models depict mid 70s dewpoint temperatures both days. Excessive heat watch in effect for the southern James River Valley for Friday afternoon/eve, and will leave this as is with this product issuance to allow the mid shift tonight to get the latest data to make headline decisions. Introduced some low POPs Friday morning 12-18Z across my south. Upper level jet streak will be lifting northeast into the Dakotas along with elevated instability for a few showers/storms. A few of the CAMs have this as well, or did, so this was added. Chance for strong to severe convection for Friday aft/eve remains along to east of the frontal boundary, across far south central and eastern North Dakota. Best bulk shear lags a bit to the west though, but maybe a bit better linkage right along the front. Shear vectors are also parallel to the boundary favoring messy multicell convection. One thing the previous forecast picked up was the heavy rain potential Fri aft/eve. Strong low level moisture transport and high precipitable water will increase the threat for heavy rainfall, especially if we see any storms moving over the same area. For Saturday, sfc boundary reestablishes over western North Dakota in the morning, then shifts east during the day as a vigorous northern stream S/WV approaches and moves into northeast Montana by late Sat afternoon, which is faster than previous models had depicted. Still better 0-6km bulk shear and instability linkage along the front on Saturday, though shear vectors a mix of orthogonal and parallel to the eastward moving boundary, resulting in a mix of storm modes possible given latest model guidance. Sunday will be quiet, cooler, and less humid with sfc high pressure building across the Dakotas, with dry conditions lasting into Monday as well. Upper level ridge moves into our area Tuesday, then to our east Wednesday when we see a return of shower/thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 MVFR cigs at KJMS early this morning should gradually improve to VFR. Scattered thunderstorms from KXWA to KMOT is the other aviation threat overnight, clearing after 10Z. VFR through the day tomorrow, then threat for thunderstorms increase in the southeast including KJMS around 00Z or after. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for NDZ048-051. && UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...AE
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-022-250545- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-McLean-Sheridan- 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 /1142 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. Some storms may be severe with large hail up to the size of quarters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. Severe weather is unlikely on Friday, but possible on Saturday. Hot and humid weather can be expected today and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National Weather Service in Bismarck by calling 701-223-4582 or posting on our social media pages. NDZ048-051-250545- La Moure-Dickey- 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight. Severe weather is unlikely. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Hot and humid weather can be expected today through Saturday. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Friday afternoon and early evening. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. Some storms may be severe with heavy rain later in the day Friday and Friday night. Chances for thunderstorms continue on Saturday. Some may be strong to severe. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National Weather Service in Bismarck by calling 701-223-4582 or posting on our social media pages. NDZ020-023-025-031>037-040>047-050-250545- Oliver-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh- Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons- Logan-McIntosh- 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 /1142 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight. A few storms may be strong but severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. Severe weather is unlikely on Friday, but possible on Saturday. Hot and humid weather can be expected today and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National Weather Service in Bismarck by calling 701-223-4582 or posting on our social media pages.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020
NDZ017-240300-
McKenzie ND-
930 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...
At 930 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Watford City,
moving north at 35 mph.
Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Watford City.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern North Dakota.
LAT...LON 4803 10335 4804 10332 4804 10329 4806 10327
4806 10324 4798 10301 4771 10324 4774 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 197DEG 30KT 4783 10326
HARGROVESpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Bismarck ND 931 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 NDZ001-240300- Divide ND- 931 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DIVIDE COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM CDT... At 931 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of Fortuna, or 16 miles west of Crosby, moving north at 45 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Fortuna. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter inside a building or vehicle. && A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern North Dakota. LAT...LON 4900 10349 4875 10355 4874 10380 4900 10387 TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 177DEG 39KT 4883 10362 HARGROVE
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1053 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 NDZ009-017-240430- McKenzie ND-Williams ND- 1053 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MCKENZIE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT... At 1053 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of Williston, moving northeast at 30 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Williston and Trenton. Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4803 10367 4806 10384 4843 10375 4835 10338 TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 204DEG 28KT 4821 10370 HARGROVE
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020
NDZ001-002-009-010-240615-
Mountrail ND-Divide ND-Williams ND-Burke ND-
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BURKE...NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS...
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTRAIL AND EASTERN DIVIDE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
CDT...
At 1231 AM CDT, the leading edge of a broad area of strong
thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 4 miles west
of Noonan to 10 miles northeast of Powers Lake. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.
Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Bowbells, Tioga, Powers Lake, Lignite, Columbus, Portal, Noonan,
Wildrose, Battleview, Flaxton, Hamlet, Larson, Northgate, Coteau,
Mcgregor and Corinth.
Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4900 10202 4886 10202 4880 10211 4881 10215
4878 10216 4833 10295 4853 10345 4900 10309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 220DEG 21KT 4890 10310 4866 10246
SCHILDSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020
NDZ010-011-240600-
Mountrail ND-Ward ND-
1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...
At 1235 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest
of Makoti, or 30 miles northwest of Garrison, moving northeast at 40
mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Plaza and Makoti.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 4811 10156 4785 10189 4785 10202 4786 10207
4823 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 211DEG 37KT 4791 10194
SCHILDSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Bismarck ND 103 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 NDZ002-003-010-011-240630- Mountrail ND-Ward ND-Renville ND-Burke ND- 103 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WARD...SOUTHWESTERN RENVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN BURKE AND NORTHEASTERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT... At 102 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Stanley to 6 miles north of Makoti. Movement was northeast at 35 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with these storms. Locations possibly impacted include...Stanley, Kenmare, Burlington, Berthold, Des Lacs, Carpio, Makoti, Foxholm, Palermo, Donnybrook, Blaisdell and Tagus. These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. LAT...LON 4876 10222 4829 10127 4794 10177 4833 10247 TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 210DEG 29KT 4832 10236 4805 10178 SCHILD
The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:26 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Shingles were blown off a roof.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 908102.