Heavy rain showers and some thunderstorms developed across the North Carolina foothills during the morning hours. Training showers and storms produced very heavy rainfall that caused flash flooding near the Catawba/Burke County line.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Heavy rain showers and some thunderstorms developed across the North Carolina foothills during the morning hours. Training showers and storms produced very heavy rainfall that caused flash flooding near the Catawba/Burke County line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 19, 2:19 AM EST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A cutoff upper level low pressure system will become weaker as it
lingers over the Eastern States to start the weekend. The system
will move offshore and dissipate by Sunday. Expect a warming trend
through the weekend. An approaching front will keep the weather
unsettled through the first half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Fri: An upper low continues to spin over the middle
Ohio Valley. Weak vort maxes are embedded in the flow around it,
and given the few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE still depicted on RAP
profiles across the region, pockets of showers/storms continue
across the foothills from NC to MD. HRRR did a pretty good job
of depicting the blossoming of such activity across our NC zones
around midnight, but it looks like it has grown a little stronger
than the model suggested it would by this time. Relatively weak
unidirectional flow will allow slow-moving and training cells to
continue along an axis from Caesars Head to near Taylorsville;
rainfall rates have been low enough to preclude any really
high totals so far, but we will continue to monitor accums. The
instability likely will eventually be exhausted along this axis,
but it wouldn't be surprising if some isolated activity persisted
elsewhere in the CWA through the morning lull.
The upper low effectively stays stationary thru peak heating
today, but 500mb progs and water vapor imagery trends suggest
the troughiness now extending from the low toward the central
Gulf Coast will pivot east by this afternoon. This will be
timed to enhance diurnal convective initiation. CAMs generally
agree on activity firing up over the Blue Ridge Escarpment and
adjacent mountains by early afternoon, propagating southeast into
the Piedmont through early evening, on continued weak westerly
unidirectional flow. A high chance to likely PoP is forecast for
most areas along/downstream of the Blue Ridge. Profiles remain
fairly moist and exhibit fairly low DCAPE for the season, as well
as weak theta-E lapse rates. Given weak shear, however, can't
absolutely rule out a severe microburst. More concerned about
continued slow storm motion and possibly training, and their
contributions to excessive rain threat. Max temps look to be a
category or so below normal. Lapse rates will remain favorable
tonight, though more of the area is likely to have been worked
over by late evening, and furthermore we will be increasingly
in the wake of the trough axis; convection is thus fcst to wane,
especially in our western half. Mins will be near normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 122 AM EDT Friday: The weekend still looks like it will be a
slow transition between the pesky upper low which should finally
leave our lives on Saturday, and a brief period of upper ridging
on Sunday. The upper ridge should slip east of the fcst area on
Monday. The net result is that summer will return over the weekend,
with temperatures back above normal, and typical diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms. Shear will be minimal and buoyancy will
be modest as well, probably no better than 2000 J/kg of sfc-based
CAPE perhaps on Sunday afternoon, so the chances for pulse-severe
storms looks low right now. Rather standard fare for mid-June.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday: The middle part next week still looks
fairly active. The latest guidance out in the medium range shows the
upper ridge moving off the East Coast on Monday night and Tuesday,
bringing back the SW flow aloft as an upper trof approaches from
the Plains. The slow eastward progression of the upper trof will
keep a sfc front to our west on Tuesday and Wednesday, providing
a favorable environment for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through the middle of the week. An increase in
buoyancy and the approach of the front may increase our chances
for severe storms mainly on Tuesday afternoon/evening, and again
perhaps on Wednesday as the sfc boundary moves across the area
late in the day. There remains some uncertainty about the front
clearing the fcst area on Thursday, with the new ECMWF hanging it
up across north GA and the Carolinas. If that scenario happens,
precip chances would not go away as suggested by the GFS. Either
way, above normal temps Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to get
knocked a few degrees down to normal for the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The period will begin VFR except where
precip is occurring. Sufficient elevated instability will linger
through the early morning hours, combined with weak forcing within
the cyclonic flow around upper low, to expect SCT SHRA and perhaps
stray TSRA mainly over WNC, warranting a TEMPO precip mention at
KCLT and KHKY. Sfc conditions will be moist throughout the area and
some areas of IFR stratus are likely near daybreak. Mtn valley fog
is also expected, warranting IFR TEMPO at KAVL. The daytime today
should be seasonably unstable, with a shortwave rounding the upper
low timed to enhance convective coverage. Activity should first fire
along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and propagate SE into the Piedmont
thru early evening. Not much confidence on restrictions tonight;
expanse thereof likely will be impacted by where the heavy SHRA/TSRA
occur this aftn, and have not hit very hard at KCLT as a result.
Outlook: Scattered diurnal thunderstorm coverage will continue
Saturday through Monday, with an uptick possible on Tuesday as a
frontal zone arrives from the west. Flight restrictions will be
possible each day in any afternoon/evening thunderstorms, and also
in low clouds and fog around daybreak each morning.
Confidence Table...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT High 97% High 92% High 100% High 100%
KGSP Med 78% High 95% High 100% High 100%
KAVL Med 66% High 94% High 100% High 95%
KHKY Low 52% High 86% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 83% High 99% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 98% High 97% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...08
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...08Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 447 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200900- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander- Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba- Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- 447 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain are in the forecast today. Isolated flooding may develop, especially in poor drainage areas, and where multiple heavy downpours occur over the same area. Any thunderstorms also will be capable of gusty winds and cloud-to- ground lightning strikes. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. 8
The Greer radar (KGSP), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Media reported flash flooding developed along the Jacob Fork basin, including Douglas Creek after more than 3 inches of rain fell in just a few hours. Jacob Fork River Rd was closed near Fd Rd due to inundation from Douglas Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, June 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 906986.