Cold in North Carolina, December 25 to 26, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
655 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry high pressure will settle in across the Southeast and
western Carolinas tonight and Saturday, and then will drift off the
East Coast on Sunday. The next cold front will move in from the
west on Monday, but is not expected to bring any weather east of
the mountains. High pressure will build back in for Tuesday. The
next system after that may reach us Wednesday night and bring
another round of precipitation on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM: A deep upper trough is seen over the Eastern Seaboard
on current water-vapor imagery. Nearer the surface, west-northwest
850mb flow maintains modest upslope lift across East TN and the
TN/NC border area. Light bands of snow showers continue to be
seen on radar in these areas, but seemingly owing to the loss of
diurnal heating, the returns have weakened. A few streams of such
returns did make it well past the mountains, such that AVL Airport
has measured a small additional accum. The flurry mention added
at previous update has been expanded across more of the Piedmont,
basically where cumulus persist, though that mention disappears
with the clouds this evening. The low-level moisture on the upslope
side is gradually being exhausted as high pressure builds in, and
this will reinforce the diminishing trend. Aside from these precip
adjustments, and revised sky/wind/vsby grids for aviation package,
the forecast is on track.

Winds will diminish gradually across the higher terrain as
temperatures drop, but the combination continues to support the
ongoing Wind Chill Advisory. In fact, will expand the high elevation
portion to include Buncombe County.  Across the nrn mountains, we
might hold onto enough wind with cold enough temps past daybreak,
so the Wind Chill Advisory will be extended to 9 AM Saturday in
coordination with the RNK office. East of the mtns, expect the
coldest night of the season thus far.

Saturday should be another cool and dry day as high pressure sets
up across the region. We lose the cold advection as we also lose
the cyclonic flow aloft, so we should see a ten degree rebound
with the temps compared to today, but that will still leave us
5-10 degrees below normal under a bright sunny winter sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 149 PM EST Friday: The transition should already be
underway aloft by the end of Saturday to a nearly zonal flow
that keep high pressure overhead Saturday night. A flat upper
ridge axis should move overhead Sunday and push the sfc high
offshore in the afternoon, which should allow temps to get back to
normal. Meanwhile, a northern stream system should be digging down
over the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The model trend for
several days has been to downplay the passage of this system and the
latest guidance continues to show very little response. The problem
will be that moisture return ahead of the approaching cold front
is essentially cut off, leaving the front moisture-starved. The
timing remains such that precip would be unlikely to reach the mtns
before we start to warm up Monday morning, which eliminates most of
the threat for light wintry precip. Instead, we get a dying cold
front that fails to make it past the spine of the Appalachians on
Monday afternoon. We will keep the slight chance on the TN border
during the day, but otherwise the fcst remains dry. Temps will
climb up about 5 deg above normal on Monday. The axis of a broad
upper trof will move the front through late in the day, followed
by another dry continental high Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 233 PM EST Friday: The middle part of the week will see
another transition between weather systems. A flat upper ridge
should move in on Tuesday carrying a large continental sfc high past
to our north. The passage of the previous front should knock temps
back down to normal. On Tuesday night, the upper pattern is expected
to amplify as a srn stream wave phases with a nrn stream wave over
the Plains. The amplifying ridge along the East Coast will keep
sfc high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast through
Wednesday as the new system organizes to our west. Confidence is not
all that great yet, given recent run-to-run inconsistency, but at
the moment the models agree that moisture will begin to return from
the Atlantic on Wednesday morning. The configuration of the sfc high
to the northeast looks favorable for cold air damming to develop on
Wednesday, which could be problematic if a strengthening southeast
return moisture flow gets going early enough in the day. For now,
we do not put too much stock in the wintry precip possibilities,
and prefer to ramp precip probs up slower as temps also slowly
climb, limiting a small potential for mixed precip to the higher
terrain. From that point onward, as we go from Wednesday night
into Thursday and beyond, the latest model guidance suggest this
system to practically be a carbon copy of the most recent one,
assuming those of you in the audience are old enough to remember
what carbon copies were. Lather...rinse...repeat. The GFS has
an eerily-similar arrangement of deep moisture and forcing that
yields a eerily-similar array of threats and timing for New Years
Eve. The only slight difference might be a suggestion of perhaps
a higher severe thunderstorm threat over the east on New Year's
Eve, and maybe slightly less of a threat of heavy snow behind the
Arctic cold front that night. For now, we will look for better
consistency with subsequent model runs before we start to discuss
the potential threats in greater detail.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KAVL: Low MVFR cigs and occasional MVFR to IFR vsby remain
possible at the start of the period, due to -SHSN forming on upslope
flow across the Appalachians, and apparently streaming toward the
field via a mountain gap. Diminishing moisture and strengthening
subsidence behind departed upper trough should lead to improving
conditions by 01z, though occasional flurries may be seen into
the wee hours of Saturday morning. VFR thereafter. Gusts will also
diminish by early morning, with winds remaining NW.

At KCLT/KGSP/KHKY/KGMU/KAND: VFR. Low VFR cumulus may be associated
with a few flurries this evening, with no impacts expected. Those
clouds and any chance of precip will dissipate within the first
few hours of the period, leaving only cirrus, and eventually
SKC. Winds will diminish overnight, backing somewhat with lee
troughing by midday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure and VFR conditions will continue through
the weekend. A weak system is expected for early next week, but
restrictions do not look likely.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  88%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-049-050.
     Wind Chill Advisory above 3500 feet until 4 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
409 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>014-019-262115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
409 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064-262115-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
409 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-262115-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
409 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-260000-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville,
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin,
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers
400 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020
...Scattered Snow Showersand Cold Temperatures Through This
Evening...

Scattered to isolated snow flurries can be expected through this
evening at higher elevations along the TN stateline with
additional accumulations of up to a quarter inch possible.

A wind chill advisory is also in effect for the area until
Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     SNOW             2 W FLETCHER            35.43N 82.54W
12/25/2020  M0.9 INCH        BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MESURED .9 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW FROM FLURRY.

&&

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
822 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             1 SSE WEAVERVILLE       35.68N 82.55W
12/25/2020  M5.7 INCH        BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ELEVATION 2155 FT.

1227 PM     SNOW             3 W MAGGIE VALLEY       35.51N 83.15W
12/25/2020  M7.4 INCH        HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            SOCO MOUNTAIN.

0609 PM     SNOW             LITTLE SWITZERLAND      35.85N 82.09W
12/25/2020  E3.5 INCH        MCDOWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            ELEVATION 3530 FT.

0800 PM     SNOW             5 NNE FAUST             35.98N 82.50W
12/25/2020  M11.0 INCH       YANCEY             NC   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. SNOW GRAINS FALLING
            CURRENTLY WITH NO ACCUMULATION SINCE 430 PM.
            CURRENT TEMP 3F.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
859 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     SNOW             7 NNW BANNER ELK        36.25N 81.91W
12/25/2020  M6.9 INCH        AVERY              NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. 1.2 INCHES ADDED SINCE 7
            AM. 6.5 INCHES ON GROUND.

&&

WIMBERLEY