What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 4:10 PM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 28, 4:10 PM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
510 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Laura will track east across the Tennessee and
Ohio valleys tonight, becoming post-tropical as its center passes by
just to our north. The remnants of Laura are expected bring gusty
winds at high elevations and increased rain chances across the
region overnight tonight through Saturday. Drier high pressure will
build in Saturday night through Sunday, but that will be short
lived, as moisture returns on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 5 PM Friday: We're currently seeing widely sct convection
across the CWFA late this aftn, with most cells remaining fairly
low-topped and discrete. There still appears to be enough shear
and sfc-Delta Theta-e for a few of storms to be strong to severe,
however we have yet to issue any warnings. The airmass will
continue to feature potential for deep warm cloud depth, however
the cells are moving quite well. Isolated heavy rainfall will
be possible and we can't rule out some flooding, especially
where cells train.
The situation will deteriorate tonight as the remnants of Laura
accelerate eastward toward the central Appalachians. A low level jet
should translate eastward and over the mtns after midnight, bringing
strong moisture transport and increasing shear. The risk for heavy
rain and flash flooding will increase accordingly, mainly over the
southwesterly upslope locations of the srn/central mtns of NC,
however the relatively fast movement of the system will cut back on
rainfall duration and limit the amounts. We will also have to keep
an eye out for any organized storms moving in from the west after
06Z. The low level jet will also bring the threat for strong wind
gusts across the ridgetops late tonight, but for now the guidance
suggests that wind gusts will fall short of advisory criteria. The
main concern will be elevations above 3500 feet, though. Lows will
be around 5 degrees above normal.
Guidance continues to feature fast moving Laura remnants. In fact,
the system could be east of the area by afternoon. SPC has moved the
slight risk east of our area as a result. Can't rule out an isolated
severe storm but the tornado threat is much better to our east. Any
heavy rainfall and strong winds should be over by afternoon as well.
Do expect gusty southwest wind in the morning becoming west during
the afternoon. Highs will end up near normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...Some drier air will work in behind the
remnants of Laura Saturday night, with the NWLY low-level flow
possibly producing a few showers along the TN border. High pressure
will slide east across the Great Lakes and New England, with a
weak wedge pushing southwestward along the Appalachians. Guidance
is still hinting at some weak CAD, but would need some decent
low-level lift to lock in low clouds and precip. Still, there will
be some upglide and SWLY upslope flow to keep skies mostly cloudy
and warrants likely to categorical PoPs Monday. A weak warm front
will then lift north Monday night or early Tuesday (although the
GFS keeps a wedge in thru the day Tuesday). Solid chc to likely
PoPs look on tap again for Tuesday. Conditions for excessive rain
and/or severe look murky both days, despite the high PoPs. Temps
will be near normal Monday, and a couple degrees warmer on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...Summer weather will continue into the first
week of September, as an upper ridge will build over the western
Atlantic and dominate over the Southeast states thru most of the
medium range. Meanwhile, an upper trough will dive southeast into
the Central Plains and close off into an upper low. The downstream
ridge will block the low for at least a couple days, then another
trough will dive into the Upper Midwest and absorb the low on
Friday. At the sfc, a weak boundary will slowly lift north of the
area Tuesday, leaving a Bermuda High set up for the rest of the
work week. A slow-moving cold front will approach the area with
the aforementioned upper trough, but the ridge may block it from
reaching the area. The EC stalls the boundary just north and west
of the forecast area on Friday, while the GFS pushes the front thru
and stalls it just southeast of the area. I feel like the NBM PoPs
are overdone in this pattern, so keeping PoPs in the chc range,
closer to climo, ramping up slightly for Friday as the front
approaches. Temps will be slightly above normal thru the period.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR to low VFR cumulus and isolated
convection developing this afternoon. Expect only brief cigs outside
of convection. Mainly scattered convection through the afternoon,
have VCTS or TEMPO in place. Convection will linger into the evening
but diminish east of the mountains before ramping back up toward
morning. TSRA should be isolated. MVFR cigs and gusty winds move in
from the west early in the morning then lift during the afternoon.
Convection ends relatively quickly after the remnants of Laura pass
during the day. Skies will lift and scatter out as well. SW wind
with low end gusts this afternoon diminish some this evening before
gusty SW wind returns by daybreak. Gusty W wind for the afternoon.
Outlook: Mainly diurnal convection can be expected into early next
week across the region, with early morning low cloud/fog
restrictions possible at KAVL.
Confidence Table...
21-03z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 91% High 86%
KGSP High 100% High 95% High 86% High 88%
KAVL High 100% Med 71% High 83% High 82%
KHKY High 100% High 100% Med 73% High 82%
KGMU High 100% High 93% High 91% High 86%
KAND High 100% High 96% Med 71% High 88%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JPT/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT/RWHHazardous weather outlook, Aug 28, 3:57 PM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
457 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-292100-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
457 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, the mountains and foothills of western North Carolina, and
the mountains of Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
The remnants of Tropical System Laura are expected to move rapidly
east toward the Appalachians tonight. Ahead of this system, scattered
to numerous thunderstorms will develop in the warm and humid air
ahead of Laura through the evening hours. Brief heavy downpours and
cloud to ground lightning are the main threats. Later tonight,
additional thunderstorms will move into the mountains from the west,
with heavy downpours and gusty winds expected. Localized flash
flooding will be possible. Winds will increase along the ridgetops
above 3500 feet after midnight and could become strong enough to
knock down tree limbs or even a few trees.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
The remnants of Laura are expected to track east across the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions on Saturday. Heavy rain and
localized flooding will be possible across the mountains and
foothills of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, especially
the southwest facing mountain slopes. Strong wind gusts will linger
through Saturday morning along the ridgetops and mountain peaks.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
292100-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
457 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon through the
evening hours. Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and cloud to
ground lightning will be the primary threats. One or two storms
could become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
The remnants of Tropical System Laura are expected to track east
across the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions on Saturday.
Brief periods of heavy rain are possible, with strong wind gusts in
the morning and early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will
continue across the region. A few of the storms could be strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts and the risk for an isolated tornado
through early afternoon.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines..
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 12:42 PM EST, 4 hours 58 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
NCZ035-501-502-281815-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
142 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ALEXANDER AND
EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...
At 142 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lenoir, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Hudson, Cajah's Mountain, Cedar Rock, Sawmills, Kings Creek,
Patterson, Ellendale and Little River In Alexander County.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3607 8144 3607 8141 3605 8139 3604 8140
3604 8137 3600 8133 3602 8127 3594 8120
3581 8152 3596 8164 3609 8148 3609 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 234DEG 14KT 3593 8151
ARKSpecial weather statement, Aug 28, 1:25 PM EST, 4 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
NCZ035-036-281900-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-
225 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ALEXANDER AND NORTH
CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
At 225 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Taylorsville, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Taylorsville, Love Valley, Vashti, Ellendale and Little River In
Alexander County.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3601 8094 3586 8127 3592 8134 3595 8134
3601 8130 3603 8127 3604 8119 3603 8117
3604 8113 3603 8107 3604 8104 3605 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 223DEG 18KT 3593 8128
12Special weather statement, Aug 28, 5:35 PM EST, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
NCZ057-072-282300-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
635 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
At 635 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Salisbury, or near Faith, moving northeast at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Kannapolis, China Grove, Spencer, Landis, Granite Quarry,
Rockwell, Faith, High Rock Lake and Gold Hill.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3542 8051 3553 8065 3577 8047 3573 8045
3572 8042 3572 8034 3571 8032 3568 8033
3567 8031 3563 8029 3563 8027 3559 8021
3556 8021 3555 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 226DEG 28KT 3557 8048
12