What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 13, 4:09 PM EST, 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 13, 4:09 PM EST, 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
509 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next few days. High temperatures will be slightly below normal
through the weekend due to ample moisture and increased cloud cover.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 5 pm EDT Thursday: Thunderstorm coverage has focused most
strongly over the NC foothills and Piedmont late this afternoon, but
outflows moving southward should permit another round of numerous
storms to develop along the southern foothills, Upstate SC, and
northeast GA through the evening hours. Although sbCAPE values
remain near 3000 J/kg late this afternoon, warm temperatures aloft
and modest lapse rates are keeping most thunderstorms from becoming
severe. Heavy rainfall will remain the primary threat given the weak
steering flow. With the residual boundaries and SELY upslope flow,
expect activity to linger well into the overnight hours.
Another similar day is expected on Friday, with comparable
instability to the past few days and a continued threat of isolated
severe thunderstorms. The bigger threat will once again be localized
flash flooding from slowly moving cells. Otherwise, high temps will
be near normal for mid-August.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: A mid level trof will traverse the area
this weekend. Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night will feature
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable
water values near 2 inches and slow storm motion, some areas could
receive heavy rain and localized flooding is possible. The trof axis
will move through the area by Sunday leading to west to northwest
flow and drying across the area. Pops will be much lower on Sunday.
Due to the increased cloud cover on Saturday, highs will be limited
to the mid 80s in the Piedmont and to around 80 in the mountain
valleys. Highs will climb back into the upper 80s in the Piedmont
and lower 80s in the valleys on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: Another mid level trof will develop
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley for the early to middle part of
next week. The atmosphere will start out drier on Monday but then
moisture quickly for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thus, pops will be on
the increase through the period with locally heavy rainfall possible.
Highs will be near climo on Monday and then a few degrees below
climo for the middle part of the week due to increased clouds and
rain.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Another round of thunderstorms this evening
has a good chance of affecting any of the TAF sites with temporary
IFR conditions. Timing is similar to recent days, with thunderstorms
from now until after sunset. Outside of gusts from storm outflows,
winds are light and variable as a weak upper pattern is in place.
Upper pattern becomes less weak Friday afternoon as a mid-level
shortwave organizes west of the region. This is expected to increase
coverage and duration of storms for Friday afternoon, and give a
more general southwesterly wind direction in areas south of I85.
Some fog and low CIGs are also possible Friday morning, similar to
the pattern seen this morning, especially in mountain valleys
affected by recent rains.
Outlook: Above normal coverage of diurnal convection is expected thru
the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Fog and low stratus
restrictions will be possible each morning, especially over the usual
mountain valleys.
Confidence Table...
21-03z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% Med 73% High 86%
KGSP High 100% High 100% Med 69% High 81%
KAVL High 100% High 80% Med 68% High 86%
KHKY High 100% High 97% Low 36% High 94%
KGMU High 100% High 94% High 81% Med 79%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 83% High 86%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HG/WJMHazardous weather outlook, Aug 13, 3:59 PM EST, 56 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
459 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-142100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
459 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the region through the evening hours, with coverage
slowly diminishing through the early morning hours. The primary
threats with these storms will be frequent cloud to ground lightning,
locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Storms and heavy rain
showers will occasionally become stationary, posing a threat of
excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially in locations that
have received heavy rainfall over the past few days.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 13, 3:31 PM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
431 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
NCZ503>506-132100-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
431 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...
At 431 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marion, moving northeast at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Lake James State Park, Lake James, Nebo and Pleasant Gardens.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3561 8204 3573 8211 3584 8190 3566 8180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 244DEG 5KT 3570 8200
KRENTZ
Special weather statement, Aug 13, 3:33 PM EST, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
433 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
SCZ001-132100-
Oconee Mountains SC-
433 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...
At 432 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Walhalla, or over Oconee State Park. This storm
was nearly stationary.
Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Oconee State Park, Salem, Lake Keowee, Mountain Rest and
Long Creek.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3488 8323 3489 8322 3488 8321 3492 8317
3492 8316 3493 8316 3493 8299 3477 8296
3474 8299 3475 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 002DEG 2KT 3486 8311
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 13, 3:37 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
437 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
NCZ036-057-071-072-132100-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
437 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...
At 437 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Kannapolis, or near Enochville. This storm was
nearly stationary.
Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Mooresville, Davidson, China Grove, Landis, Enochville,
Coddle Creek Reservoir, Cornelius and Mount Ulla.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3561 8054 3544 8061 3547 8087 3572 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 110DEG 4KT 3556 8066
KRENTZ
Special weather statement, Aug 13, 4:00 PM EST, 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
NCZ035>037-056-057-502>506-508-132145-
Rowan NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Davie NC-McDowell Mountains NC-
Iredell NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
Alexander NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Catawba NC-
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN MCDOWELL...
CATAWBA...NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...DAVIE...SOUTHERN ALEXANDER...
IREDELL...SOUTHERN CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN ROWAN AND BURKE COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM EDT...
At 458 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles north of
Salisbury to near Marion, and moving south at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Salisbury, Statesville, Morganton, Newton, Marion,
Mocksville, Taylorsville, Lenoir and St. Stephens.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3562 8033 3556 8158 3557 8167 3558 8169
3556 8169 3555 8209 3586 8195 3593 8112
3606 8093 3605 8056 3591 8038 3589 8038
3588 8042 3584 8039 3585 8042 3583 8043
3584 8048 3583 8049 3573 8045 3572 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 001DEG 6KT 3577 8044 3565 8202
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 13, 4:45 PM EST, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
545 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
NCZ068-504-508-132215-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-
545 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...
At 544 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Morganton, or 5 miles west of Casar, moving southeast
at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Belwood, Lawndale, Fallston, Polkville, Lattimore, Casar, South
Mountains State Park, Kingstown, Mooresboro and Sunshine.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3550 8150 3541 8145 3526 8167 3553 8186
3564 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 322DEG 15KT 3552 8171
KRENTZSpecial weather statement, Aug 13, 4:48 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
548 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
NCZ056-069-070-132215-
Gaston NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
548 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CATAWBA...
LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...
At 548 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of
Newton to 8 miles west of Lincolnton, and moving southeast at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Lincolnton, Cherryville, Maiden, Boger City, Iron Station, Denver,
Crouse, Bandys and Vale.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3546 8098 3537 8139 3552 8142 3564 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 320DEG 4KT 3561 8107 3548 8140
KRENTZ