Wildfire in Texas, August 13 to 16, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
A seasonally strong upper level ridge (99-99.5th percentile at 500
mb per NAEFS) remains centered over southern New Mexico today and
tomorrow before gradually retrograding westward and strengthening
further through the weekend. For south-central TX, the story remains
hot, dry weather in the short term.

Near-record highs are in the forecast for the majority of the
region, and 100-106 degree ambient high temperatures are forecast
save the usual cooler spots in the Hill Country such as Boerne,
Kerrville, and Rocksprings where mid to upper 90s are expected.
Although decent mixing down of dewpoints is occurring during the day
(into the mid to upper 60s south and east and upper 50s west by late
afternoon) heat index values may still be able to locally top out
around 110 in a few spots across the eastern half of our area.
Similar conditions in the forecast tomorrow. With several locations
likely to reach the criteria of 103 degree temperatures or 108
degree heat indices, a Heat Advisory will remain in place through
Friday evening for the counties along and east of I-35. The rest of
the Hill Country and southward to Frio County will also be added to
the Advisory Friday. Overnight lows continue to provide little, if
any reprieve, falling only into the mid 70s to near 80.

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures and year of most recent occurrence
                    8/13        8/14
                    ----------  ---------
Austin Bergstrom    103 (2000)  104 (1956)
Austin Camp Mabry   107 (1925)  107 (2013)
San Antonio         106 (1962)  103 (2013)
Del Rio             108 (2019)  106 (2015)

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The hot weather conditions continue for the upcoming weekend with
highs ranging from 100 to 106. The Heat Advisory earlier issued for
Friday across most of the area, now is in effect through Saturday.
Our safety message for you all during the next several days is to
drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks when outdoors. Also,
check up on relative and neighbors whenever you have a chance.

The good news is that a mid to upper level disturbance is forecast to
move across the Edwards Plateau and the western part of the Hill
Country on Saturday night into the overnight hours. This feature
could bring isolated showers to that region. By Sunday afternoon
into the evening hours, rain chances are even better as a cold front
over central Texas pushes into the Hill Country area.

The cold front is expected to push across south central Texas late
Sunday into Monday with isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly occurring along and east of Interstate 35
through the period. Due to the rain chances and plenty clouds in
place, Monday's high temperatures are expected to drop to the mid 90s
across the Hill Country and upper 90s to near 100 elsewhere (close to
climate normal values).

There may be some lingering outflow boundaries and plenty of low
level moisture on Tuesday as an upper level short wave moves across
our area to produce isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will once again takes
control with dry and hot weather conditions returning middle of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 106  77 104  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76 103  76 103  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74 104  75 103  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74 103  76 104  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 105  78 106  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77 104  78 105  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             74 104  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76 103  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76 103  77 104  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76 103  76 103  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-
Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-
Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Bandera-
Blanco-Burnet-Edwards-Frio-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Llano-Medina-Real-
Uvalde.

&&

Short-Term/Aviation...KCW
Long-Term...17
Decision Support...Oaks

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
320 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-142030-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
320 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM for areas along and
east of the Interstate 35 and Interstate 37 corridors. Hot
temperatures and humid conditions will lead to Heat Index values
up to 111 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Heat Advisory continues until 7 PM Saturday for most areas with
the exception of the Rio Grande. Hot temperatures will continue
across south central Texas through at least Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.