Several rounds of heavy rain moved across the north Piedmont during the early morning hours and the evening. This resulted in some isolated flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Several rounds of heavy rain moved across the north Piedmont during the early morning hours and the evening. This resulted in some isolated flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 13, 1:03 AM EST, 57 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 203 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will linger over the Carolinas through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 920 PM Wednesday... Most of the convection for the day has died off, except for some lingering showers and thunderstorms across southwestern counties. Maintained chance pops for those areas through midnight, then allowed pops to fall off. Once again, expect morning fog/stratus, although it may be somewhat limited in coverage with high clouds moving in from the northwest. Lows will be near climatology. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM Wednesday... More of the same expected, but with a bit better coverage than we've seen so far today. Steering flow from the SW will remain very weak, although we may see it pick up slightly as the weak upper trough over the Mid Miss Valley approaches. The weak low level low pressure area over the central/E Carolinas today is expected to drift to the NNE, leading to a band of more discernible confluence of low level flow through central and E NC as inverted troughing becomes more defined from NE NC SW through the CLT area. With the continued slow/meandering storm motion and PW that is likely to be 2-2.5", slow-moving heavy downpours remain possible, although the continued lack of large scale forcing for ascent may curtail coverage once again. But good chance to low-end likely pops still seem reasonable, and have largely held onto these, with minor tweaks. Temps should once again lean toward persistence, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 followed by lows near 70 to the lower 70s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... No major changes for the long term with the afternoon forecast package. Upper-level low pressure will remain over the southern Appalachians through the weekend, then slowly lifting east-northeast early next week across the area. At the surface, an inverted trough will remain over the Appalachians, extending from a low over northern MS/AL through the end of the week, shifting into central NC over the weekend as the low lifts through the Carolinas. This pattern, along with precipitable water values around 2 inches, will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region through the weekend. Most shower activity will be in the afternoons and evenings, with less coverage overnight. The upper-level trough will push east sometime Sunday/Monday, with slightly drier air behind the system. Showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated Monday and Tuesday. Lower dewpoint temperatures behind the system will make it feel less muggy early next week, with heat indices only in the upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday. Another upper-level trough will develop just to our west by the middle of next week, and with an increase in moisture over the region, helping to increase shower and thunderstorm activity yet again across the region. Highs through the extended will be just below seasonal normals, with lows just above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Showers and storms may continue to bubble around INT and GSO this morning, as they consume lingering instability and are aided by glancing lift from a trough now lifting newd across the cntl Appalachians. To the east of that convection and multi-layered cloud cover, relatively clear skies atop a humid boundary layer will favor the development and expansion of areas of stratus and fog at RDU, RWI, and perhaps FAY. Some of those associated LIFR-IFR conditions may briefly expand wwd to affect GSO and INT around 12Z, provided ongoing convection and cloudiness dissipate there prior to daybreak and the onset of diurnal heating. Meanwhile, a separate, relatively focused area of showers and storms will continue to develop nwd across ern NC, around a mid level disturbance that will track from just east of ILM at 06Z to nern NC/sern VA through 21Z. A few of those may affect RWI. Otherwise, a widely scattered storm cannot be ruled out anywhere in cntl NC with diurnal heating through the afternoon and early nighttime hours, with another nocturnal maximum possible over the Piedmont tonight. Outlook: A persistent regime of late night-morning stratus and fog and diurnally-maximized showers and storms will continue through the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...JJT AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 638 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 NCZ021>023-038-039-131200- Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph- 638 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Slow-moving thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain and a risk of flooding this afternoon into early tonight. This threat will be greatest if storms occur over urban areas in the Triad. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Slow-moving thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain and a risk of flooding Thursday through the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-131200- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash- Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee- Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 638 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Slow-moving thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain and a risk of flooding Thursday through the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1157 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020
NCZ009-010-130500-
Vance NC-Warren NC-
1157 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020
...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND EASTERN VANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...
At 1156 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm near
Warrenton, moving west at 5 mph.
Heavy rain and minor flooding are likely with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Warrenton, Norlina, Middleburg, Gillburg, Drewry, Afton,
South Henderson and Wise.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.
&&
LAT...LON 3638 7810 3626 7830 3627 7831 3626 7831
3623 7834 3623 7838 3637 7846 3648 7831
3649 7815
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 068DEG 6KT 3637 7822
10The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:02 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The intersection of North Carolina Highway 47 and Klopman Mill Road was closed due to flash flooding.
The intersection of East Salisbury Street and Main Street was closed due to flash flooding.
Brush Creek at Muirfield Road exceeded flood stage, resulting in flash flooding.
South Buffalo Creek near Hunter Hills Park exceeded flood stage, resulting in flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 919622, 919623, 919624, 919625.