Strong Wind in New York, January 12, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1248 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A pre-frontal trough will then move through the area Sunday
morning, followed by a cold frontal passage in the evening. High
pressure builds over New England Monday and retreats Monday
night. A series of frontal systems move across the region late
Tuesday through Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for
Friday. Another storm system affects the region next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Wind Advisory remains in effect late tonight into Sunday.

A very strong low-level jet will move from NYC to points east
during the early morning hours with winds of 75 to 85 kt at
3000 ft. Uncertainty lies in how much of this momentum transfers
down to the surface. The expectation is for gusts to around 40
kt during the pre- dawn hours. The threat of these winds will
then expand across the entire area with the passage of the pre-
frontal trough and onset of daytime heating. The strongest winds
will end by mid morning and then gradually subside through
afternoon. Thus, a wind advisory is effect from 4 am to 1 pm
Sunday.

The anomalously warm airmass remains across the region,
courtesy of a high amplitude ridge across the western Atlantic
and an upper trough lifting out of the Mid Mississippi Valley. A
deep-layered SW flow and continued warm advection will lead to
a slight rise overnight. Lows will range anywhere from the 55 to
60. Astonishingly, this is around 35 degrees above normal, more
typical of late May and early June.

As upper low/shortwave lifts up into the Great Lakes late
tonight into the morning, it will send a pre-frontal trough
across the region around or shortly after daybreak. This will
result in a line of showers, possibly a thunderstorm that works
quickly across the area during the pre-dawn hours for western
portions of the area, then off the end of Long Island/SE CT by
mid morning. Instability is marginal and severe weather is not
expected. Ahead of the line is where some momentum transfer
could enhance the synoptic flow. The convection looks shallow
and in past frontal rain bands, the precipitation actually
weakens the winds.

Due to the strong SW flow overnight, fog along the coast is
forecast to be mainly patchy in nature.

The showers quickly move offshore by 15z with rapid clearing.
Strong gusty winds will continue into the afternoon, but the
strongest likely occur a few hours after the pre-frontal trough
passage.

Preference was toward the warmer end of the guidance for highs
Sunday, with highs in the 60s, except cooler along the immediate
coast. Record highs are once again possible. See the climate
section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A cold frontal passage early in the evening Sunday will be
followed by high pressure building to the north. While it will
be much colder than the previous night, lows will range from
the upper 20s inland to the lower and mid 30s at the coast. This
is still around 10 degrees above normal. Gusty northwest winds
early (up to 20 mph) will diminish to less than 10 mph and veer
to the E by morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended period will be rather active as a progressive and
nearly zonal flow predominates across the continental United States
Monday into next weekend. A series of shortwaves move through the
flow into late next week. The highest amplitude pattern sets up late
next week as a high amplitude ridge builds across the east coast
Friday followed by a full amplitude wave moving out from the central
United States Saturday.

Temperatures will be remaining above normal Thursday, then return to
more normal levels Thursday night into Saturday as Arctic high
pressure builds toward the region.

Any precipitation with the waves will be mainly in the form of rain,
with a chance of some light snow and rain across the lower Hudson
Valley into interior southern Connecticut Wednesday night as cold
air begins to flow into the region. For the system next weekend
there is some uncertainty as to how long a period of light snow will
occur before a transition to all rain Saturday afternoon. This will
be dependent on how quickly the cold air is scoured out as high
pressure moves east. At this time there is no cold air damming
evident and the flow does remain progressive. Also held the
probabilities at chance, being next weekend, and timing changes will
be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will approach overnight, and move across Sunday
evening.

Starting with MVFR cigs most places, except LIFR at KISP. IFR
and tempo LIFR cigs are expected for KBDR/KGON as well as KJFK.
Narrow line of convection with the front will reach the NYC
metros by 0830Z-09Z, with showers continuing in its wake til
about 12Z. Timing about 1-2 hrs later for the Long Island and CT
terminals. Not seeing lightning strikes or flashes with this
line yet but cannot totally rule out isolated thunder as it
moves across.

S winds should increase overnight as well, with G35-40kt likely for
a couple of hours right before fropa. LLWS also remains a concern
until and shortly after fropa, especially east of the NYC terminals,
with SSW winds increasing rapidly just off the deck to 45-70 kt at
FL020, strongest east.

VFR with gusty W winds later today, with winds veering NW and
diminishing tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Late Sunday night and Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...Chance of rain/snow at KSWF, chance of rain elsewhere,
mainly afternoon and at night, with MVFR or lower possible.
.Wednesday and Thursday...Chance of rain, with MVFR or lower
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Gales are now in effect for all waters tonight into Sunday
afternoon. The combination of strong high pressure over the
western Atlantic and an approaching frontal system will result
in a strengthening SW flow with gale force gusts developing
overnight and continuing into the first half of Sunday morning
before gradually diminishing in the afternoon. SCA conditions
will linger on the ocean Sunday night primarily due to lingering
high seas. Winds will shift around to the NW Sunday evening
following a cold frontal passage.

On going SCA ocean seas Monday will be gradually subsiding, and fall
below 5 feet late in the afternoon as high pressure builds into the
waters. The surface pressure gradient will remain rather weak
through the middle of the week as a series of waves of low pressure
move across the waters. During Thursday, northwest winds and gusts
will increase across all the waters as low pressure deepens east of
the forecast waters. SCA gusts will be likely on the non ocean
waters Thursday with gales on the ocean waters. There may be a
period of several hours of gale gusts on all the waters Thursday
night. Winds then diminish into Friday as high pressure builds into
the waters, with gusts falling below gale on the ocean Friday
morning, and below small craft on the remainder of the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are once again possible on Sunday:

      Record....Forecast

EWR...67/2017   68
BDR...55/2018   63
NYC...66/2017   67
LGA...68/2017   67
JFK...61/2017   64
ISP...58/2018   64

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service New York NY
132 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-121845-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
132 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-121845-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
132 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.