NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 7, 1:19 PM PST, 10 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 7, 1:19 PM PST, 10 hours 41 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
119 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Winter-like conditions are expected this weekend for eastern
California and western Nevada, with periods of snow likely even in
the lower elevations. The most likely time frame for accumulating
snow and travel impacts is tonight through Sunday morning. Chilly
temperatures will continue through next week with increased
chances for rain and snow later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Forecast remains on track with little in the way of changes.
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Snow is expected across all elevations tonight
with travel likely to be impacted overnight into Sunday morning.
Don't let this first snow of the season catch you off-guard. Be sure
to have a winter travel kit in your car, your tires have good tread,
and carry chains.
Cold upper level low is currently sitting over the west, with bands
of wrap-around moisture bringing scattered rain and snow showers to
the region this afternoon. Overall snow totals from these bands will
be light, and based on road temperatures well into the 50s, if not
lower 60s, it will be hard to see roadway accumulations through mid-
afternoon, unless there happens to be a locally persistent area of
snowfall.
As a secondary low drops into the region tonight, a steadier band of
snow is still looking likely. This system is dropping out of the
north, so it is not the same as the storms we see coming over the
Sierra. We are expecting snow across western Nevada as well as in
the Sierra, with snow levels at all valley floors. The cold
nature of the storm in addition to timing means that accumulation
on roadways is likely, with difficult travel possible Sunday
morning. We can just be glad this isn't for the Monday morning
commute!
Widespread snowfall totals of 1/2" to 4" are likely tonight into
Sunday mainly south of a Susanville-Fernley-Fallon line, including
Reno-Sparks-Carson City-Virginia City areas, in addition to Douglas,
Lyon, Churchill, and Mineral Counties. North of that line, lighter
amounts up to 1" remain possible. For the Sierra, including Tahoe
south through Mono County, amounts of 3-6" are more likely, with
locally higher totals up to 10". All of these areas could
potentially see localized higher amounts if they reside within an
enhanced snow band for a longer duration.
Following this main band, cold unidirectional northerly flow could
produce residual lake effect snow bands south of larger lakes, such
as Tahoe and Pyramid Sunday afternoon into early evening. The High
Res ARW model, which in past winters has done well with picking up
on lake effect snow, is showing this idea as well. Overnight, it
appears to get stable enough with lighter flow such that snowfall
activity should end.
Very cold air in place behind this system will keep high
temperatures on Sunday well below normal. In fact, the current high
temperature forecast of 36 degrees on Sunday in Reno would be the
lowest high temperature ever recorded on Nov 8! The current record
is 38 degrees set back in 1920. Overnight lows will also plummet
Sunday night with widespread teens and single digits, and even some
below zero readings in colder spots. We'll warm a few degrees
Monday and Monday night, but it'll still be well below normal.
-Dawn
.LONG TERM...Tuesday into next weekend...
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, a weak weather system may track
along the Oregon-Nevada border but precipitation, if any, looks
to be light and remain north of Portola-Gerlach. Otherwise, the
forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday calls for highs mainly in the
40s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
For Thursday-Thursday night, there is some potential for a somewhat
stronger system to drop farther south and cross the Sierra into the
Great Basin. How far south this system will drop is uncertain, but
there is some potential for it to bring widespread but light snow
showers and breezy conditions as far south as Mammoth Lakes and the
White Mountains.
For Friday into Saturday, there is potential for a strong winter
storm but the forecast challenge is: "How far south will the storm
track be?" There is potential for a moderate AR to move into
northern CA and Oregon over this period, which if located farther
south could bring heavy precipitation north of I-80, with snow
levels possibly starting at valley floors and then perhaps rising as
high as 7000-8000 feet late Saturday. Winds are definitely also a
concern with this weather pattern; a more northerly storm track
could result in breezy conditions while a more southerly track
could bring an upper jet across the Sierra with potential for very
windy conditions and strong turbulence over and east of the
Sierra. Our main message for now is: stay tuned to the forecast
and be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and winter
driving conditions next weekend. JCM
&&
.AVIATION...
Plenty of lowered ceilings along with mountain obscuration currently
being observed from approximately US-50 north, with ceilings
lowering south of there tonight. Scattered snow showers this
afternoon with periods of MVFR to IFR conditions possible.
Accumulation through this afternoon will be minimal at best, but
more likely nothing at all. Breezy northwest winds continue with
gusts peaking out around 25-30 kts through approximately 04z this
evening.
Overnight, a more defined area of snow is expected, especially south
of approximately a Susanville-Fernley-Fallon line. Mountains will be
obscured with IFR conditions likely within the snow band. Here's
approximate timing and accumulation amounts for terminal sites:
KRNO: 07z-16z, 1-3"
KTRK: 07z-16z, 3-5"
KCXP: 08z-17z, 2-5"
KTVL: 08z-17z, 3-7"
KMEV: 08z-17z, 2-6"
KMMH: 12z-20z, 1-3"
Otherwise, a few showers are likely to persist due to instability.
Also, lake effect snow showers may linger Sunday afternoon and
evening downwind of larger lakes such as Tahoe and Pyramid. Snow
activity will wind down Sunday night with improving conditions
Monday. -Dawn
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Sunday NVZ001-004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Sunday NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Sunday NVZ003.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Sunday CAZ071.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon PST Sunday CAZ073.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Sunday CAZ072.
&&
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno