NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 13, 6:37 AM PST, 7 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 13, 6:37 AM PST, 7 hours 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
637 AM PST Mon Jan 13 2020
.MORNING UPDATE...
Winds are continuing to gust at and above 30 mph on Lake Tahoe
this morning, so the Lake Wind Advisory has been extended until
the Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect this evening. Winds
could drop a little through late morning and early afternoon, but
gusts will increase above 40 mph by 4 PM. Gusty winds will
increase over night and are expected to continue on Lake Tahoe
into Tuesday evening, so another Lake Wind Advisory was added to
the end of the Winter Weather Advisory and includes Pyramid Lake
as well. The overall message is that lakes will be hazardous for
recreation activities and no one should be out on lake surfaces.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 244 AM PST Mon Jan 13 2020/
SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak to moderate winter storms will affect the area over
the next few days, each with snow and wind impacts for the region.
Light to moderate snow is expected tonight for the Sierra and
northeast California. Very strong winds are expected for much of
the region tonight into Tuesday morning. A stronger winter storm
moves in Wednesday night through Thursday with heavy mountain snow
and strong winds. A drier period is setting up the following
week.
SHORT TERM...
Changes: Only minor adjustments were made based on latest model
trends. The last couple hundredths of QPF were removed from
along the Sierra Front for tonight's round of snow. However, a few
hundredths were added to the Sierra crest. As for wind, a Lake
Wind Advisory was added after the High Wind Warning ends late
Tuesday morning.
The forecast message remains unchanged. A moderate winter storm
will bring snow to the Sierra this evening into early Tuesday
morning while bringing strong, potentially damaging, winds to the
Sierra Front.
Sierra impacts: Expect roads in the Sierra to be slick with
accumulations generally 2 to 5 inches for Sierra valleys and 6 to
10 inches in the higher Sierra and over passes. Snow will be much
less south of Highway 50 as the system weakens while it moves
through the region. Travel could be difficult with winds whipping
snow and lowering visibility less than half a mile. Strong winds
could also cause some damage to trees and will be a hazard for
high profile vehicles as gusts reach 50 mph.
Sierra Front impacts: While drier, the winds will be stronger for
the Sierra Front as consistent evidence of downsloping winds
continues to show up in model soundings. Gusts will generally be
in the 50-65 mph range starting this evening and continuing into
Tuesday morning. These speeds tend to mainly damage fences, but
more acute damage could occur to less hardy structures due to the
duration of the winds. Wind prone location gusts could top out at
80 mph. High profile vehicles will be susceptible to overturning,
especially through Washoe Valley and other wind prone locations
along Highway 395, like canyon openings in Mono County.
Wednesday: Winds drop off Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Precipitation chances were delayed a little as the jet digs
southward ahead of the next, more potent system. Some light snow
can be expected to start around noon west of Susanville with
accumulations being very light at first. More impactful weather
begins in the evening. Boyd
LONG TERM...Wednesday Night onward...
Changes: Further slowed the arrival of the system Wed-Thurs and this
also brought liquid/snow totals down slightly. Made adjustments to
the peak wind times as well, however anticipated peak speeds are
similar.
The jet stream associated with the incoming storm for Wednesday
night is continuing to dig farther south, with the overall system
pivoting a bit. This is slowing down the arrival of the storm, with
good agreement among the model suites. Have trended the forecast in
this direction, though if the trend continues, the timing may need
to be pushed back further. Based on current progs, impacts will
begin in northeast California and the Sierra between midnight and
daybreak Thursday, lasting through the day. In the Sierra,
significant travel impacts are still expected and the combination of
wind and snow may bring periods of white out conditions over passes.
This is going to bring slow and dangerous travel conditions with
chain controls almost a certainty (though check with CalTrans and
NDOT as they make this decision).
It's looking more likely that the snow won't begin for much of
western Nevada until Thursday morning. Time of arrival ranges from
just after sunrise (just in time for the morning commute...joy) to
late morning/midday. Best advice at this point -- keep checking back
for the latest details and plan to leave early for your commute
Thursday morning.
Due to the faster residence time of moisture over the area, snow
totals were dropped a bit, but the overall message hasn't changed.
We're generally looking at 12-24" in the upper portions of the
Sierra (highest along the Sierra crest), around 8-12" in the Tahoe
Basin, the higher terrain west of Portola/Susanville, and the
eastern Sierra of Alpine/Mono Counties. Along the Sierra Front,
including the metro areas, and for northern Washoe Co, 1-5" is
looking probable, however, if the snow falls more during the day
instead of early morning, it might not accumulate to that depth due
to melting and compaction. Farther east, into the central Nevada
Basin and Range, 0-2" will be possible.
Winds are still looking strong and gusty Wednesday night, but should
begin to taper back with precipitation spilling over by Thursday
morning. Sierra ridges, however, will remain elevated and there is
the potential for stronger wind gusts to erratically mix down to the
surface while heavier precipitation is ongoing. At this point, gusts
look like they could reach 40-50 mph in valley locations (stronger
in wind prone areas), with over 100 mph likely across ridges. This
means yet another round of travel impacts for high profile vehicles,
choppy lake conditions, and turbulence and wind shear for aviation.
The peak wind speeds look likely between about midnight and
daybreak, and unlike the Monday night/Tuesday morning wind event,
this one is more mixing/gradient based and doesn't look to have a
downslope component as the wind direction (southerly) isn't as
favorable.
While a weak system may bring light snow showers to the Sierra and
northeast California Saturday night into Sunday, travel for MLK
weekend doesn't look too bad. The overall ensemble pattern would
also suggest a warming and drying trend beyond the weekend, though
additional weak systems remain a possibility. Depending on the
strength of the ridging, limited mixing could be a concern for
planned prescribed burns. -Dawn
AVIATION...
Winds are once again rather gusty out there early this morning with
a turbulence SIGMET in place along and downwind of the Sierra
through 12z and multiple pilot reports of severe turbulence around
Sierra ridge level. Winds look to subside after about 15z but this
will be a brief lull ahead of the main wind event tonight into
Tuesday.
There are also scattered snow showers out there presently, though
doubt we'll see more than a dusting for Sierra terminals and nothing
in western Nevada. This is still bringing lowered CIGS/VIS and
terrain obscuration in the Sierra. Shower activity will subside
between 13-15z.
As mentioned, very strong winds are anticipated tonight into
Tuesday. Downslope enhancement is looking likely along the Sierra
Front with a high risk for wind shear, severe turbulence, and
dangerous cross winds. This storm will bring another round of snow
with a dusting possible for western Nevada terminals and 2-4" of
accumulation possible in the northern Sierra and northeast
California, including KTRK/KTVL. Lesser totals up to 1" are possible
for KMMH.
There will be a brief break in the activity Wednesday before the
strongest storm in the series moves in Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing the potential for heavy snow and yet another round of
strong winds, turbulence and wind shear. Please see the long term
section for additional details. -Dawn
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Tuesday NVZ005.
Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for Lake Tahoe
in NVZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Tuesday NVZ002.
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening NVZ002.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday
NVZ003.
Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Tuesday
for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Tuesday CAZ070-071.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon CAZ071.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Tuesday
CAZ073.
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through late
Thursday night CAZ073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for Lake Tahoe
in CAZ072.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Tuesday CAZ072.
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening CAZ072.
&&
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno