Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 22, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

At 343 AM, cirrus from overnight convection in the Sand Hills and
a thunderstorm complex in Oklahoma was producing mostly cloudy
skies in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Under those clouds
there were a few sprinkles occurring near Norfolk, Columbus and
Grand Island. So pretty quiet out there.

Northwest flow aloft will send another weak shortwave diving
through our region today. Toss in some diurnal heating and this
should induce poofy cumulus development and isolated
showers/thunderstorms between noon and 7 PM. Shear, CAPE and
moisture profiles are not ideal for severe convection, so we'll
call it a win for the atmosphere if today's setup can produce a
storm with marginal hail (dime to penny size). Any storm activity
this afternoon should fade rapidly with the loss of diurnal
heating after 7 PM. Temperatures today will be in the "Agreeable
Zone" with highs near 80 degrees and modest humidity.

Surface high pressure should settle over the Missouri River Basin
Tuesday, leading to more sunshine, less humidity and mild summer
temperatures (highs at or just shy of 80 degrees). This should
make for excellent weather, especially in the evening as winds
become calm.

The nice weather will likely linger Wednesday as surface high
pressure shifts to our southeast. Expect plenty of sunshine
Wednesday, with a transition from calm winds in the morning to
light southeasterly winds in the afternoon. An isolated
thunderstorm may form near the KS/NE border in the evening.
Temperatures should add 3 to 5 degrees to Tuesday's highs, pushing
us into the mid 80s Wednesday afternoon.

Confidence in the forecast from Thursday through the weekend is
low, with model ensembles showing a temperature spread of around
15 degrees each day. Then there is the potential for several
shortwaves to track across the Plains in this period, but there
timing varies significantly from model to model. Given these
considerations, the forecast is kind of a middle ground (forecast
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and slight thunderstorm chances
each day).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Visible satl imagery already showing cumulus development over
eastern NE with increase of destabilization. However, given
lacking moisture suspect areal coverage of afternoon convection
will be isolated in nature. Thus will cover all terminals with
VCTS. Beyond the afternoon VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Albright
AVIATION...DEE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-230615-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. A
few of these storms may be accompany by large hail and damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening through the weekend.
It is to soon to determine a potential severe risk for this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be required during the late afternoon
hours.