Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 22 to 23, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
609 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the Concho Valley this evening, which may affect the KSJT
and KBBD TAF sites. A line of showers and thunderstorms may then
move through the area between 06Z and 13Z. Any of these storms may
produce heavy rainfall, large hail, and strong gusty winds. Most
of this activity will move south of the area by mid morning. In
addition, stratus will develop between 10Z and 12Z, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will return by mid to late morning.
Gusty south to southeast winds early this evening will decrease
late this evening. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday
morning, resulting in north to northeast winds around 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A messy forecast pattern appears to be on tap through at least
tomorrow morning. As of early Monday afternoon, a warm and moist
Gulf airmass had established itself across much of west Texas.
Temperatures were in the upper 90s on their way to the low 100s,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
until this evening for the Concho Valley and Crockett County.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure was noted along the Texas/New
Mexico border, while a surface trough extended out from this area
through the Concho Valley, with a frontal boundary across southern
Oklahoma. The upper levels are in a persistent northwest flow
pattern at 500mb, which tends to make forecasting convective
coverage much more challenging this time of year.

Midday RAP soundings and SPC Mesoanalysis show widespread areas
of over 5000 J/kg of CAPE, with 1500 J/kg of Downdraft CAPE, along
with Effective Shear of 30-40KT. As a result, SPC has a Slight
Risk across much of the Southern Plains today. The one fly in the
ointment is how much the cap will hold this afternoon. Temps at
700mb were holding right at 14 deg C. However, the aforementioned
surface trough may provide just enough convergence to break
through the cap, allow for a few cells to develop this afternoon.
Anything that develops could produce locally damaging wind gusts
and possibly large hail.

The best chances for precipitation appear to be tonight, when a
substantial shortwave embedded in the northwest flow aloft will
push southeastward across West Central Texas. Assuming not much
change to the current airmass, aside from some diurnal cooling,
and if thunderstorms can get organized late this evening across
the South Plains, a large thunderstorm complex should push through
West Central Texas sometime after midnight. This complex would
have the potential to produce locally damaging winds, heavy rain,
and persistent lightning. Otherwise, warm and humid conditions
will continue overnight.

By sunrise tomorrow, the 500mb shortwave should help to move a
cold front southward and push any nocturnal precipitation further
east. In it's wake, a slightly cooler airmass will move in, with
cloud cover hanging on through about midday. Still, temperatures
are expected to reach the low 90s in the afternoon.

SK

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)

A stationary cold front/outflow boundary is expected to settle
south of our forecast area by Tuesday night. This boundary, along
with another shortwave moving southeast through west Texas will
bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly for
areas southeast of a Sweetwater to Brownwood line. However,
thunderstorms can't be ruled out anywhere due to outflow
boundaries being laid down by previous convection serving as
potential focal points for new thunderstorms to develop off of.
With overnight convection Tuesday night expected to add new
outflow boundaries, and the shortwave/potential MCV moving slowly
through southern parts of Texas, additional thunderstorms will be
possible through Wednesday, mainly for the southern half of the
area. Any of the storms produced during these events will have the
potential for locally heavy rainfall with a very humid atmosphere
in place. Although widespread severe weather is not expected, a
few of the storms could become strong and produce small hail,
and/or strong, gusty winds. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should be
the coolest of the week overall, in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The forecast will trend drier through the end of the week and into
next weekend, with moderating temperatures. Highs from Thursday
through the weekend should warm slowly back into the 90s areawide.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 70  88  67  88 /  70  30  20  10
San Angelo 	 74  93  68  90 /  30  20  30  30
Junction 	 74  93  67  90 /  30  30  40  40
Brownwood 	 71  88  66  89 /  60  40  30  20
Sweetwater 	 69  89  67  88 /  50  20  20  20
Ozona      	 74  94  69  90 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Concho-
Crockett-Irion-Runnels-Sterling-Tom Green.

&&

Daniels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-231915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
204 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect from 2 PM to 7 PM today, across the
Concho Valley and Crockett County. Very hot temperatures of 103 to
107 degrees are expected across these areas.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and persistent
lightning will be possible this afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorm chances will continue Tuesday through Friday. Storms
will probably be isolated to widely scattered most of the time,
except for the Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon time period
when widespread storms with locally heavy rain could occur south
of a Sterling City to Brownwood line. The main hazards would be
lightning, locally heavy rain and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed weather to the NWS while following all
local, state and CDC guidelines.