For roughly 24 hours between the very early mornings of Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th, much of South Central Nebraska saw its first 3-inch-or-greater snowfall of the 2020-21 season, including the Tri Cities. The highest amounts mainly in the 3-6 range (but localized higher) concentrated within a southwest-to-northeast swath bisecting the heart of the area, generally 20 miles either side…
Every event with a place to put it; 19 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
For roughly 24 hours between the very early mornings of Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th, much of South Central Nebraska saw its first 3-inch-or-greater snowfall of the 2020-21 season, including the Tri Cities. The highest amounts mainly in the 3-6 range (but localized higher) concentrated within a southwest-to-northeast swath bisecting the heart of the area, generally 20 miles either side of a line from near Cambridge-Minden-Doniphan-Shelby. Within this zone, a sampling of the highest CoCoRaHS/NWS cooperative observer measurements featured: 8.1 three miles northeast of Shelby, 6.5 at Stromsburg, 6.4 in Grand Island, 6.3 in Holdrege and 6.0 at Osceola. Again though, most places within the main corridor checked in between 3-5, including 5.1 at NWS Hastings, 4.8 at Cambridge, 4.4 three miles north of York and 3.5 at Kearney airport. Meanwhile, both north and south of the primary snow band, totals dropped off considerably to no more than 1-2 (including places such as Ord, Greeley, Superior and Hebron). North winds were not overly-impactful, but strong enough to cause some minor blowing/drifting thanks to sustained speeds typically 15-20 MPH and occasional gusts around 30 MPH. While snow was by far the dominant precipitation type, a few observers (including at Osceola) reported a brief period of sleet/graupel early on. Temperatures during this event hovered within a few degrees either side of freezing.
Timing-wise, while at least light snow/flurries affected much of the area for roughly 24 hours, the vast majority of steadier snow and accumulation occurred during the daytime and evening hours of the 11th. Forcing in the mid-upper levels was clearly tied to a modestly-strong shortwave trough tracking east through the Central Plains, probably most evident at 700 millibars as a closed low slid along/just south of the Nebraska-Kansas border. At the surface, the steady (but not overly-strong) north winds were driven by a modest pressure gradient between a broad high centered over the Dakotas/south-central Canada, and a fairly weak low that gradually drifted northeast from Oklahoma toward central Illinois (central pressure around 1006 millibars early evening on the 11th).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 11, 3:51 AM CST, 9 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
351 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020
.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020
Radar returns have been filling in a bit more early this morning
across the area, and perhaps there are some flurries around, but
as of 3 AM no automated sites in our CWA had reported -SN. Upper
air data show southwesterly flow in place across the Plains, with
satellite imagery showing a shortwave disturbance making its way
out of CO and into western NE/KS. Skies are cloudy, and ceilings
have been lowering with time, right around 1500ft currently. At
the surface, the CWA sits well north of the main cold front, which
extends from the panhandle of TX northeastward into the Great
Lakes region, which high pressure is centered over the ND/Can
border. This is keeping winds across the area northerly, with
speeds generally around 15 MPH, but there have been occasional
gusts closer to 20-25 MPH. The plentiful cloud cover has helped
keep temps from falling notably overnight, with 3 AM obs in the
mid 30s for the majority of the area, far NNW areas are in the
lower 30s.
Today/Tonight...
The main forecast concern through the entire 7-day forecast lies
in this first 24 hour period. In the grand scheme of things,
there hasn't been significant changes in models, but there were
some adjustments made. This upper level disturbance will continue
pushing ENE across the region today/tonight, and precipitation is
expected to expand in coverage with time. Thermal profiles
continue to show this being mainly snow event, with the exception
being across SSE portions of the CWA, where temperatures will be
more marginal/favorable for a RA/SN mix or just RA for at least a
brief period of time.
Through the first half the day, adjustments to PoPs tightened
things up a bit, focusing the better chances roughly north of a
line from Phillipsburg to Geneva. Even though PoPs were lowered
south of that line, some hi-res models suggest it wasn't lowered
enough, and have little occurring there through midday. Models
still showing it being later this afternoon and into this evening
that the overall coverage of precipitation will be at its peak,
tapering off to an end after midnight. Still have PoPs ending at
12Z Saturday, but a few models suggest at least flurries/light
snow could linger in far eastern areas for a few hours beyond
that.
As far as snowfall amounts go, the main adjustment was a slight
northward shift in the axis of higher amounts. Previous forecasts
had favored roughly the Highway 6 corridor, current forecast is
more along the I-80 corridor. Higher amounts still look to be
along/east of Highway 281, though current forecast does have that
3" contour creeping a touch west of there. Decided to add Sherman,
Buffalo, and Kearney counties to the advisory...don't have
widespread 3" amounts, but at least eastern portions of those
counties could see that much snow. Otherwise no changes were made
to the advisory. Overall in the main axis still looking at 2-4",
but a few higher amounts aren't out of the question, just a matter
of where any banding develops.
Otherwise, didn't make any notable changes to other forecast
elements for today/tonight. Skies will remain cloudy/mostly
cloudy, and northerly winds will continue, with sustained speeds
around 15 MPH and gusts near 20-25 MPH possible. In areas of
heavier snow, the added winds could bring lowered visibilities.
Think that temperatures will struggle to really go anywhere
through the day, and have temps fairly steady in the lower-mid
30s, with more 20s building in this evening/tonight.
This weekend...
As mentioned above, have dry conditions returning at 12Z Saturday,
but may need to add a couple hours of lingering light snow to far
eastern areas. Otherwise, the day/evening hours remain dry. Should
see diminishing sky cover, at least briefly, but more clouds look
to be moving in from the west later in the day-overnight, as
another upper level disturbance makes its way in. Model blend kept
some small PoPs Saturday night across far SWrn portions of the
area, but most of the latest model runs suggest this next system
is going to track far enough south of the CWA that PoPs wouldn't
be needed. If that trend continues those chances will be removed.
Forecast for Sunday remains dry.
Confidence in temperatures isn't the highest, as snowfall amounts
from today/tonight's system will play a big part, even with the
sunny skies expected to return for Sunday. Currently have low-mid
30s going for Saturday, with a small bump into the mid 30s-near 40
for Sunday.
Next work week...
Shortwave ridging in the upper levels slides through the region on
Monday, before yet another disturbance moves through the Plains
for Tuesday. Models aren't in too bad of agreement in broad
terms, bringing another quick shot at some snow, current PoPs are
in the 06- 18Z Tuesday time frame...but details with
location/amounts will be ironed out in the coming days.
High temps Monday through Wednesday look to be in the 30s-40s,
with Tuesday the coolest of those 3 in the lower-mid 30s
accompanying those PoPs. The latter portion of the work week
should see highs climbing further into the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020
Expecting deteriorating conditions at both terminal sites through
this TAF period, as an upper level disturbances swings through the
region. More surrounding obs are starting to report MVFR ceilings,
so it's just a matter of time before GRI/EAR do as well. Chances
for snow will increase through the daytime hours, and do have IFR
conditions developing, but if any bouts of heavier show pass over
the terminals, LIFR conditions wouldn't be out of the question.
Snow should start to lighten up toward the end of the period, but
it's not until after 06Z that things come to an end.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for NEZ041-
046>049-061>064-074>077-085>087.
KS...NONE.
&&
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADPHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Hastings NE 933 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 111200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 933 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Areas of snow will move into the area after 2am tonight. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Light snow will continue to expand across the area Friday morning, lasting through Friday night in some locations. In general, total snow accumulation of 1 to 4 inches is expected, with localized higher amounts possible. Highest amounts are forecast to be east of Highway 281 across south central Nebraska. North winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph could result in minor blowing snow with reduced visibilities at times. Please refer to the Winter Weather Advisory message for more information. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
18 winter weather, 1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Cooperative observer snowfall totals included 2.2 inches from 8 miles south of Elwood and 2.0 inches from 6 miles south-southeast of Lexington. Higher amounts were likely in eastern portions of the county based on surrounding reports.
Snowfall totals included 4.8 inches at Cambridge, 4.0 inches at Beaver City, 3.4 inches from 6 miles north-northwest of Oxford, 3.0 inches at Edison, and 3.0 inches at Wilsonville.
A snowfall total of 4.4 inches was measured by a Cooperative Observer located 3 miles north of York. A CoCoRaHS observer located 6 miles north of Bradshaw measured 5.0 inches.
Cooperative observer snowfall totals included 8.1 inches from 3 miles northeast of Shelby and 6.0 inches from Osceola. A CoCoRaHS observer located in Stromsburg reported 6.5 inches.
A snowfall total of 4.5 inches was reported in Minden.
A snowfall total of 4.5 inches was measured 4 miles north of Aurora. A CoCoRaHS observer located 1 mile south of Hordville measured 5.0 inches.
A snowfall total of 6.4 inches was reported at the Central Nebraska Regional Airport in Grand Island. An NWS employee measured 5.2 inches in Doniphan.
A snowfall total of 4.5 inches was measured 4 miles south-southeast of Hildreth and 3.5 inches was measured 6 miles south of Wilcox.
Cooperative Observer snowfall totals included 3.5 inches at Ravenna as well as the Kearney Airport, and 3.4 inches at Miller.
A snowfall total of 5.1 was measured at the NWS Hastings office located 4 miles north of Hastings. An NWS employee on the south side of Hastings measured 3.4 inches.
Snowfall totals ranged from 3 to 6 inches across the county (based on nearby reports and NOHRSC Snowfall Analysis).
A CoCoRaHS observer located 6 miles southwest of Lexington measured a snowfall total of 5.0 inches.
A Cooperative Observer located in St. Paul measured 2.6 inches of snow. Amounts were likely higher in southern portions of the county based on surrounding reports.
A snowfall total of 6.3 inches was reported in Holdrege.
A snowfall total of 2.6 inches was measured in Orleans. Higher totals were likely in northern portions of the county based on surrounding reports.
A Cooperative Observer located 2 miles west of Genoa measured a snowfall total of 2.0 inches. A CoCoRaHS observer located 9 miles northeast of Palmer measured a snowfall total of 3.4 inches.
Cooperative Observer snowfall totals included 3.4 inches from 6 miles east-southeast of Clay Center and 3.0 inches in Clay Center.
A snowfall total of 3.0 inches was measured 4 miles southwest of Blue Hill.
Cooperative observer snowfall totals included 3.0 inches reported 4 miles south of Shickley as well as in Geneva.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, December 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 931830, 931831, 928578, 928582, 928587, 928588, 928590, 931832, 931834, 931835, 934507, 934508, 934511, 934516, 934517, 934510, 931833, 934506, 934505.