High Wind in Montana, February 20, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1029 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level ridge will continue a slow warming trend over the
next few days, and bring dry conditions to the area. After a
windy and warm day on Friday into Saturday, the next chance for
rain or snow arrives on Sunday. It turns a bit colder early next
week, with snow likely continuing into Monday and Tuesday.

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.Morning Update...

Update has been published, with primary adjustment made to winds
for the day. Winds have already become breezy along the northern
foothills of the Central Montana mountains and Rocky Mountain
Front. Have therefore increased wind speeds approximately 5-10 mph
above the previous forecast due to the expected deep mixing and
increasing pressure gradient throughout the day. Temperatures will
warm some 5 to 15 degrees more compared to yesterday, even in the
stubborn Milk River Valley. Temperatures were already warming
rapidly along a Cut Bank to Fort Benton line this morning due to
the increasing winds, with this trend expected to expand further
northeast through the afternoon hours into the Havre area. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1030 AM MST Thur Feb 20 2020 (20/18Z TAF Period)

VFR conditons are expected throughout the 2018/2118 TAF period,
however, some mountain wave turbulence and low level wind shear
will be possible in lee of the Continental Divide through the
morning hours on Friday. Those terminals most at risk of seeing
low level wind shear are KCTB, KGTF, and KHLN. With confidence
high the low level wind shear will occur over the KCTB terminal,
inserted a prevailing group with this TAF issuance. - Moldan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Main concern looks to be Friday, when we will have gusty winds,
low humidity and warmer temperatures over the Plains. The main
area of concern looks to be the I-15 corridor from Great Falls to
Shelby and then generally westward to the Rockies where grasslands
are exposed and not covered with snow. The dormant grasses will
respond quickly to the low humidity and gusty winds should any
fires start. These elevated fire weather conditions may slightly
improve but still remain going into Saturday. No wind or fire
highlights are planned at this time, but that could change should
wind or temperatures increase a bit. Anglin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 447 AM MST Thu Feb 20 2020/

Today through Sunday...Broad upper level ridge will bring clear
and dry conditions for today. Temperatures will begin to warm for
most areas today, although some areas along the Hi-Line and
southwest valleys with continued snow cover may not warm as much
as they could without snow cover. The mentioned ridge then
flattens for Friday. This could bring some breezy to perhaps windy
conditions, along with continued warm temperatures, and dry
conditions. All these factors could bring an elevated fire weather
danger day. See the Fire Weather discussion for more details.
Breezy and dry conditions could then continue into Saturday, with
yet another warm day. A cold front could then change the weather
pattern sometime Saturday night into Sunday. This may bring some
cooling conditions and perhaps some mountain snow showers, with
only scattered snow showers across the lower elevations during the
day, perhaps increasing in coverage Sunday night. Anglin

Monday through Thursday...An upper level disturbance could then
reinforce the mentioned cold front and bring more widespread snow
shower activity Monday and perhaps into Tuesday. The track of this
disturbance may now be a touch too north for widespread impacts
from this system. That being said this will still have to be
watched as 1 to 3 inches of snow is still possible across lower
elevations, with 3 to 6 in the mountains, from Sunday through
Monday night. Lingering northwest flow will bring cooling
temperatures to start next week, with highs and lows below normal
at least into mid week. Little precip is expected during this cool
period once snow ends Monday night or Tuesday morning. By late
next week another high pressure ridge may return to the area
bringing mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures. Anglin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  22  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  46  19  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  37  15  48  24 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  28   9  42  17 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  25  -4  32   3 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26   7  37  15 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  35  18  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  42  18  46  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
933 AM MST THU FEB 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.36N 113.11W
02/20/2020  M71 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DCRM8 DEEP CREEK RAWS.

0839 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE BROWNING           48.54N 112.98W
02/20/2020  M53 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTBWG BROWNING (MT DOT).

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