Hail in Missouri, April 28, 2020

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
112 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 111 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

Primary forecast focus is on Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon.

We have been watching convective trends ahead of the surface front
moving south/southeast out of Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas
and northwestern Missouri. Farther west, the surface boundary is
being influenced by what appears to be a secondary 850 low and a
subtle 500mb short wave trough moving into northeastern Kansas. This
has resulted in more stout convection developing across central
Kansas. Over our neck of the woods, a subtle radar feature
suggests a potential surface boundary well ahead of the front and
current convection, just pushing through the KC Metro. This is
depicted on Visible Satellite by a more focused line of cumulus,
just weakly organized. It appears this subtle boundary may end up
being a focus for initial organized convection as the front
continues to push southward. This boundary appears to be focused
along the western edge of a strong 925-850mb Theta-E axis,
supported by the ribbon of lower 60s dewpoints cutting through
western Missouri. Various flavors of Convective Allowing Models
(CAMs) suggest robust initiation ahead of the front, near this
boundary between 2 to 4 PM. 17Z special from Topeka reveals a
sizable inversion with a very dry sub-cloud layer. Low level lapse
rates are between 6 and 7 C/Km supporting an increased concern
for damaging wind gusts with any convection. At present, most
likely to see the initial line of strong to severe convection
develop near/around Paola, KS to the south side of the KC
Metro/Harrisonville to Marshall to Moberly; with a line of storms
moving east and southeast into central Missouri through 6 to 7 PM.
Overall, Wind will be the primary concern followed by hail. Wind
gusts over 60 mph are more than likely with the strongest storms
and can cause significant damage. As for tornadic potential;
boundary layer winds are veered, out of the southwest, and are
expected to remain so. Overall, not overly impressed with the
tornadic potential, but given sufficient shear for rotating
storms, a few spin-ups cannot be ruled out with the strongest
storms.

Overnight, after midnight, an area of showers will move into
northwestern Missouri. With steep low level lapse rates, there's
concerns we could see isolated wind gusts over 60 mph with this
activity. At present, we will likely handle any strong wind gusts
with Severe Storm warnings or Special Weather Statements.
&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

TAF sites will have to contend with thunderstorm chances through
the afternoon into the early evening. Ceilings are expected to
remain at VFR, but drops in visibility are expected with any heavy
thunderstorms. A break in rain is expected for much of the
overnight with a second chance for showers early Wednesday
morning along with strong northwest winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
429 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-290930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
429 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Several chance for thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
 Monday. The chances of severe weather look low at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
309 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

MOZ031-038-039-282045-
Carroll MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-
309 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CARROLL...WESTERN SALINE
AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mayview, or near Odessa, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Waverly, Wellington,
Corder, Alma, Malta Bend, Blackburn, Mayview, Wakenda, Miami, De
Witt, Dover, Aullville, Mount Leonard and Grand Pass.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 39 and
58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 9307 3894 9390 3913 9398 3921 9380
      3921 9376 3922 9376 3944 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 250DEG 44KT 3905 9385

Leighton

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
317 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

KSZ060-MOZ043-053-054-282100-
Linn KS-Bates MO-Cass MO-Henry MO-
317 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LINN...SOUTHEASTERN
CASS...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND BATES COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasanton, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Adrian, Garden City, Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City,
Archie, Linn Valley, Amsterdam, Amoret, Foster, Merwin, Passaic,
Worland and Ballard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 9493 3829 9499 3839 9471 3839 9461
      3843 9461 3859 9414 3821 9400 3821 9405
      3815 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 253DEG 36KT 3824 9476

Leighton

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
322 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

MOZ038-043>045-282100-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Pettis MO-
322 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CASS...NORTHWESTERN
PETTIS...SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE AND JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warrensburg, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Harrisonville, Knob Noster, Concordia, Holden, Garden
City, Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, East Lynne, Kingsville,
Whiteman Afb, Centerview, Emma, Strasburg, Gunn City, Fayetteville,
La Tour and Pittsville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 60 and
62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 9437 3872 9440 3901 9350 3894 9350
      3894 9343 3876 9336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 255DEG 33KT 3879 9385

Leighton

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
416 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

MOZ044-045-054-282200-
Johnson MO-Pettis MO-Henry MO-
416 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HENRY...PETTIS AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Houstonia to near Windsor to near Clinton.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Warrensburg, Windsor, Knob Noster, Whiteman Air Force Base,
La Monte, Smithton, Leeton, Green Ridge, Calhoun, Chilhowee, Whiteman
Afb, Hughesville, Sedalia Memorial Arpt, Post Oak and Hartwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3843 9401 3860 9389 3885 9364 3889 9305
      3861 9307 3853 9323 3854 9328 3851 9330
      3851 9351 3842 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 262DEG 34KT 3883 9331 3857 9352 3840 9384

Leighton

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
421 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

MOZ039-040-045-046-282200-
Saline MO-Pettis MO-Cooper MO-Howard MO-
421 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PETTIS...
SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD...SOUTHEASTERN SALINE AND NORTHWESTERN COOPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Marshall, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Boonville, Fayette, New Franklin, Nelson, Blackwater,
Franklin, Arrow Rock and Lamine.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 76 and
108.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3887 9324 3917 9324 3922 9265 3892 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 264DEG 16KT 3906 9302

Leighton

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
431 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

KSZ060-282215-
Linn KS-
431 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINN COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 431 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kincaid, or 13 miles northeast of La Harpe, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mound City and Blue Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3819 9508 3822 9476 3804 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 276DEG 22KT 3809 9517

Leighton