Avalanche in Colorado, April 28, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1132 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Some lower clouds and isolated showers will linger this morning
over the divide before exiting to the east by late morning. Dry
and breezy conditions will take hold this afternoon under a
northwest flow as the ridge axis shifts over the Great Basin.
Critical Fire Weather conditions will be felt over the southwest
Colorado valleys, where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. More
details in the Fire Weather section below. Temperatures today will
be a few degrees cooler than yesterday due to the passage of
yesterday's cool front but still about 10 degrees above normal.
Dry conditions continue on Wednesday as the ridge axis shifts
overhead. The gradient relaxes with lighter winds aloft on
Wednesday, but temperatures will climb even higher to 10 to 15
degrees above normal. Mostly sunny skies expected both today and
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Southwest winds will increase a bit Thursday into Friday as a
broad Pacific trough moves into the northern Pacific and ejects
several weak shortwaves across the Intermountain West and northern
Rockies. Our CWA will mainly be dominated by the ridge of high
pressure, whose axis shifts into the Great Plains. We will
experience some of the warmest temperatures of the season mid to
late week, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal by
Thursday. The blended guidance keeps flirting with the 90 degree
mark, which given the deep mixing expected, this is within the
realm of possibilities. If that's the case, we will be close to
and may break some record high temperatures in some locations. Dry
conditions will be felt in most areas late week, with exception of
the north where these weak shortwaves will allow for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms, favoring high terrain and afternoon
hours. The ridge axis breaks down by the weekend as a more robust
shortwave trough moves across the north Saturday and again Sunday.
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms favor areas north of
I-70 with some central mountain areas potentially seeing activity,
favoring the high terrain during the afternoon hours. Dry
conditions look to be seen elsewhere although temperatures will
take a hit Sunday and again Monday as these disturbances move
through. Although cooler, temperatures still remain warm and above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Thin high cloudiness a fewer mid level clouds will keep VFR
conditions in place over the next 24 hours. The main concern will
be breezy valley winds this afternoon with gusts of 25 mph or
higher expected for a few hours around peak heating. Light terrain
driven winds will return by late evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

Windier conditions will be felt across the Four Corners region
with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range this afternoon. These dry
and windy conditions, in combination with critical fuels, will
lead to critical fire weather conditions across the southwest
Colorado valleys. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for Fire Weather Zone 207 and 295 for elevations below 8500
feet MSL. A reprieve will occur Wednesday as the ridge axis moves
overhead with lighter winds aloft. The abnormally warm and dry
period will continue through late week, with potential for
elevated fire weather concerns as the southwest gradient tightens
a bit due to disturbances passing to the north.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ207-295.

UT...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MDA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
426 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-291030-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
426 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon and
evening across southwest Colorado valleys, where fuels are
critical. Elsewhere, dry and unseasonably warm weather will
continue today with breezy conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Mostly dry and unseasonably warm weather is expected through
late week, with thunderstorms in forecast for the mountains and
north late this week into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.