A strong jet streak moved across Montana and North Dakota during the afternoon and early evening, providing enough lift to overcome a lid of warmer temperatures aloft across central South Dakota. Storms progressed east and southeast and utilized drying within the elevated layer to generate enough cooling to produce hail, and environmental deep-layer shear of 45 to 55 knots to organize into short…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A strong jet streak moved across Montana and North Dakota during the afternoon and early evening, providing enough lift to overcome a lid of warmer temperatures aloft across central South Dakota. Storms progressed east and southeast and utilized drying within the elevated layer to generate enough cooling to produce hail, and environmental deep-layer shear of 45 to 55 knots to organize into short bowing segments.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 4, 6:08 PM CST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 708 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 Scattered storms continue to develop in the vicinity of a frontal boundary from Sheldon to Sioux Rapids and locally enhanced instability. Thus far the main threats with storms in this region have been small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning amidst weaker mid level lapse rates, but cannot rule out brief large hail up to 1 inch diameter in a strongly sheared environment in this small region through sunset. Further west across central SD, will continue to monitor isolated severe storms as they track eastward toward the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 The concern in the short term will be the convection chances overnight. A weak upper level wave continues to move east and has moved into northwestern South Dakota per GOES-16 hi-level water vapor image. Convection has begun to develop along the North and South Dakota border as well as in the northern Black Hills. Effective shear remains more than adequate to support supercells with values of 40-50 kts. The problem is the lack of instability due to limited moisture. As temperatures have approached 90 degrees east of the James River, dry air just above the surface has mixed out leaving dew points in the 50s over southwestern Minnesota, east central South Dakota, and northwestern Iowa. This is combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates that are generally from 6.5 - 7 C/km. As a result MLCAPES are generally less than 1000 J/kg except in the Missouri Valley where lapse rates are near 7 C/km and dew points are in the lower 60s. With limited instability and the lack of any significant boundary in the area, it is unlikely severe thunderstorms will develop over the area. Rather, the expectation is that storms that develop in the vicinity of the Black Hills will need to propagate into the area following the high MLCAPE axis from western South Dakota into south-central South Dakota. For this reason the best chance for severe storms remains in south central South Dakota where hail up to golf ball size will be possible with any supercells than can move into the area after sunset. DCAPE values are less than 1000 J/kg in this area so while 60 mph wind gusts will be possible, wind will be a lesser threat. Similarly, a weak low level wind field has resulted in 0-1 km shear of less than 10 kts so that tornadoes appear unlikely. As these storms move east toward Sioux City, the atmosphere does become more stable and inflow into the storms will be lacking due to the absence of any low level jet so that updrafts will slowly weaken. Maximum hail size should be closer to 1 or 1.25 inches. The storms are expected to exit the area prior to sunrise on Friday. That will leave Friday dry with above average temperatures. While cooler than today, highs will again be from 80 to 85. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 The forecast challenge going into the weekend and early next weekend will be the development and subsequent evolution of a deep upper trough that will set up over the western US this weekend and move into the plains early next week. With the upper trough digging into the western US Friday night, strong southerly flow will develop across the plains in the lowest 500 mb of the atmosphere. This will bring very warm air into South Dakota at and above 700 mb by Saturday morning. The result will be increasingly steep lapse rates along and west of the James River toward sunrise. With strong warm air advection at 700 mb and steep lapse rates, there will be a chance for high- based convection from late Friday night into Saturday morning - primarily west of the James River although a few cells could approach I-29. These storms are not expected to be severe. As the day continues, warmer and more moist air will move in at 850 mb over much of South Dakota. While the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable west of I-29, there will be a large cap in place as 700 mb temps warm to +12 or +14. If the warming aloft is slower and moisture comes in more quickly around 850 mb, there is the potential for storms to develop over portions of eastern South Dakota as a strong upper level short wave/jet streak moves into the northern High Plains. Should storms develop, effective shear is around 40 kts so could not rule out some large hail from elevated supercells. The best chance will be west of the James River. Any storms that manage to develop should move north of the area late Saturday night. On Sunday and Monday, both the NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble are showing unusually warm air at 700 mb - amongst the warmest seen for this time of year. The warm anomaly is not as significant at 850 mb. The combination argues that a significant cap is likely to be in place Sunday and Monday. This will make thunderstorm development increasingly unlikely as the surface low and front remain over western South Dakota. Instead, very warm temperatures in the 90s with dew points climbing well into 60s can be expected. The surface low and upper trough look to approach the area Monday night and Tuesday. There remains a lot of uncertainty on the timing of the frontal passage but when it does go through there will be a threat of heavy rainfall as there could be training storms in the deep southerly flow. After the frontal passage, cooler air with temperature at or even below seasonal averages can be expected by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 MVFR ceilings and vsby are possible this evening through early Friday morning as scattered thunderstorms move through the region. Storms across western and central SD and NE will track east, first near KHON this evening and then perhaps reaching near KFSD and KHON after midnight. Other than with storms, expect VFR conditions through the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...BP SHORT TERM...Schumacher LONG TERM...Schumacher AVIATION...BP
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 905 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-SDZ038>040-056-051200- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Moody- 905 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota and east central South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to pass through portions of the region late tonight. The strongest storms may produce hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Another round of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening into the overnight hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is possible through 4 AM Friday morning. NEZ013-014-SDZ050-052>055-057>071-051200- Dixon-Dakota-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-Aurora-Davison- Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner- Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-Union- 905 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to pass through portions of the region through 2 AM tonight. The strongest storms may produce hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Another round of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening into the overnight hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.
The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:39 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Damage occurred to small to moderate tree limbs. Property damage costs are rough estimates.
A large barn door was blown in and bent. Property damage costs are rough estimates.
Minnesota RWIS station MN030 3 miles south of Hendricks measured a peak wind gust of 70 mph.
A flag pole was snapped off by strong winds. Lawn furniture was blown all over the yard, with power also knocked out. Wind-driven hail up to one-half inch in diameter shredded crops. Property damage costs are rough estimates. Crop damage is an estimate from insured losses. Information provided by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Considerable dime size hail fell near Florence. Crop damage is an estimate from insured losses. Information provided by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Minnesota RWIS station MN038 3 miles west of Dovray measured a peak wind gust of 63 mph.
Eight trees were snapped off at the trunk, with several other uprooted. A 4-wheeler was blown a couple hundred feet off the driveway. Property damage costs are rough estimates.
Damage occurred to numerous small to moderate tree limbs. Property damage costs are rough estimates. Wind was accompanied by pea size hail. Crop damage is an estimate from insured losses. Information provided by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Minnesota RWIS station MN007 2 miles northeast of Rushmore measured a peak wind gust of 56 mph. Wind was accompanied by pea size hail. Crop damage is an estimate from insured losses. Information provided by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Nine power poles were snapped off, with four tossed across 340th Avenue into the opposite ditch. Property damage costs are rough estimates.
Minnesota RWIS station MN071 4 miles east northeast of Jeffers measured a peak wind gust of 62 mph.
Automated weather station 2 miles north northeast of Windom measured a peak wind of 58 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, June 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 902140, 902137, 902141, 902142, 913751, 902143, 902138, 902144, 913825, 902139, 902145, 902146.