Rip Current in California, June 4, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
429 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Look for another hot day across the interior as
conditions begin to cool at the coast. An unseasonably cool weather
system will result in a rapid cooling trend from Friday into the
upcoming weekend. Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend is
likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 1:53 PM PDT Thursday...What a temperature
spread across the forecast area this afternoon. Onshore flow and
an early morning marine layer brought some relief to the coast
with temps running several degrees cooler than yesterday. Coastal
afternoon temperatures are in the 60s to near 80 for the most
part. Interior locations are running a few degrees cooler than
yesterday as well, but temperatures are still rather hot. A
sampling of interior temperatures show many locations in the
90-103 range. Two other items of note this afternoon is a develop
southerly surge south of the Big Sur Coast tracking northward and
cu developing over the southern Gabilan Range. Not expecting
thunderstorms today, but will have to watch the building cu to see
if a shower pops up near Santa Rita Peak.

For tonight, a shallow marine layer will begin to become better
established as the ridge of high pressure continues to move
eastward. Patchy low clouds, and possibly some drizzle, will be
possible along the coast overnight.

A big cooldown is still on track for Friday with temps 5-10
degrees cooler near the coast and as much as 20 degrees cooler
across interior locations. The one thing to watch on Friday will
be some residual moisture and a little instability tracking across
Monterey/San Benito. No mention of showers/tstorms as moisture
and lift may not overlap enough.

Another shot of colder air will spill over the region as a trough
moves through this weekend. A weak boundary will also move through
early Saturday, which may be enough for a few showers. Confidence
is low for shower activity, but decided to leave them in the
forecast for now. Cold weather continues into Sunday as well.

A gradual warming trend is forecast to begin on Monday, yet
temperatures across the interior will likely remain below seasonal
averages. By midweek, look for more widespread 80s to lower 90s
across the interior and upper 60s to middle 70s near the coast in
response high pressure building over the eastern Pacific. Dry
weather conditions are also likely to prevail from Sunday into next
week as the storm track remains well to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 04:29 PM PDT Thursday...for 00Z TAFs. VFR
conditions through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.
A shallow marine layer is expected along the coast overnight
along with the return of coastal stratus. MVFR/IFR cigs are
expected around the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay terminals
overnight and tomorrow morning. Breezy W/NW winds this afternoon
around 15 kt with local gusts of 20 to 25 kt. Winds will ease
overnight before increasing again tomorrow afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions into this evening before low
clouds are expected to develop tonight and persist through mid to
late tomorrow morning. MVFR/IFR cigs overnight and tomorrow
morning. Breezy W/NW winds this afternoon 15 to 25 kt before
easing overnight. Winds to increase again tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions generally expected the
rest of the afternoon and into the evening. However, satellite
imagery shows some thin stratus developing over the Monterey
Peninsula. This may bring intermittent MVFR cigs into KMRY
earlier than expected. Otherwise MVFR/IFR cigs to prevail
overnight and through tomorrow morning at least. Today's local WRF
as well as MOS guidance suggests low clouds may linger over the
Peninsula all day tomorrow. W/NW winds this afternoon around 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt possible before easing overnight.

&

.MARINE...as of 02:21 PM PDT Thursday...Northwest winds are
forecast to prevail over the coastal waters today and Friday. The
strongest winds will be generally north of Pigeon Point where
fresh wind-generated waves will result in  hazardous conditions
for smaller vessels. Mixed seas will continue with a shorter
period northwest swell and a longer period  southwest swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: AS
MARINE: Rowe

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