A band of thunderstorms along a cold front produced gusty winds in spots.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A band of thunderstorms along a cold front produced gusty winds in spots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 13, 4:26 PM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
526 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Band of high-based showers is taking advantage of a deep, dry
sub-cloud layer, represented in part by surface temps in the low-
mid 60s and surface dew points in the low-mid 30s. These
disorganized showers are thus becoming wind producers, including
46 mph at our office and 45mph at TVC. Have got an initial SPS
out, and will of course continue to monitor.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
High impact weather potential: Gales on Lake Michigan this afternoon.
Pattern synopsis/forecast:
Fast paced and shortwave filled mid and upper level flow regime
found across the northern Conus early this afternoon...running along
southern extent of cold core gyre rotating across central Canada.
Next in the series of shortwaves impacting northern Michigan as of
this writing, bringing with it gusty southwest winds, increasing
clouds, and a some spotty light showers. Looking further west,
elongated upper jet core and increasingly robust shortwave impacting
the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia, bringing
widespread showers to that region. Expect this wave/upper jet to dig
southeast into the northern Plains on Wednesday. Attendant deepening
surface response will pivot into the northwest Lakes later
Wednesday, bringing our next round of gusty winds and more shower
chances.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and
addressing additional shower chances.
Details:
Expect any showers to come to a quick end early this evening as
current wave and attendant cold front exit stage right. Aggressive
clearing expected thereafter with surface ridging building overhead.
And, much like today, clouds will be on the increase heading through
Wednesday as next surge of warm air advection overspreads the region
well ahead of developing northern Plains low pressure. Rain chances
return by later in the morning and afternoon, especially for areas
north of M-32 where forced ascent via upper jet support and moisture
convergence will be maximized (the latter helped along by 50+ knot
low level jet response). Temperatures will run about on par for what
they should be for mid-October, with lows tonight ranging from the
upper 30s to middle 40s, and highs Wednesday ranging through the
50s...with a few spots making a run at 60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Wednesday night through Friday evening
...The S-word...
High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes...Rain continues,
mainly over E Upper Wednesday evening as the sfc low moves into N
Lake Superior. The models are handling the sfc and associated front
similarly through 12z/Thu. So, the expectation will be for rain all
night, mainly north of M-32 in N Lower, with scattered showers south
of M-32. 12z/Thu, the cold front is through the region, and the 1000-
850mb winds turn NW with the 0C 850 mb line roughly running from
Whitefish Pt. to about CAD. NAM/SREF/ECMWF have the -4C 850 mb line
running through N Lake Michigan and SE Chippewa County by 00z/Fri,
while the GFS has the -7c line in the same region. have leaned
toward rain through 00z/Fri, but if the GFS is right then there
could be a mix in E Upper and maybe NW Lower, and the tip of the
mitt as the we get closer to -8c. It wouldn't be surprising, it is a
lower chance of it happening, but it isn't the likely idea. The idea
becomes more muddled with the 850 mb temperatures as the different
models have different ideas about how cold it is. However, the sfc
temperatures begin to show more that snow can be supported, and
especially when looking at some of the dry air in the lower levels
(below 850 mb). So a mix or even all snow would be possible over the
higher terrain of N Lower, and almost all of E Upper. Friday,
Temperatures warm back into the 40s by 11am in the forecast area, so
any flakes will be rain again with LE Rain possible into the
evening.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
High Impact Weather Potential:
Unsettled and colder period ahead for the weekend into early next
week. Departing system Friday will be followed relatively quickly by
another system Saturday night into Sunday as a shortwave moves
in...though exact timing and strength of this feature and its
associated surface reflection is uncertain. Either way...attm a
period of warm advection on Saturday looks possible...with signals
for perhaps widespread liquid precipitation and gusty winds as the
system moves into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Beyond
this...further lack of consensus in the models indicates much
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the weekend and start of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
VFR conditions expected through this taf cycle. Band of mostly
elevated clouds and some light showers will spread west to east
across the taf locations this afternoon and early evening, with
skies clearing rapidly during the overnight. Another round of
increasing high clouds expected on Wednesday. Gusty southwest
winds this afternoon become a bit more westerly and decrease in
speed some this evening. Winds back southerly again Wednesday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
Gale and small craft advisory producing gusty southwest winds will
veer more westerly and decrease in speed tonight behind a passing
cold front. Winds quickly back more south and southeast on
Wednesday, becoming quite gusty once again. Low pressure passing
across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday night will swing the winds
around to west and northwest by Thursday morning, with more gale
force wind gusts a possibility across northern Lake Michigan by
later Wednesday night.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
&&
UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB<!doctype html>
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</html>The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 87 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:35 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 926768.