With high temperatures in the 90s, central Kentucky sat in an area of upper and lower high pressure. During diurnal heating, very slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall developed, causing flash flooding in Adair County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
With high temperatures in the 90s, central Kentucky sat in an area of upper and lower high pressure. During diurnal heating, very slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall developed, causing flash flooding in Adair County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 26, 12:50 PM CST, 4 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 .Short Term...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Convective temperature has been reached, and we are seeing scattered showers and T-storms develop mainly along and south of Interstate 64. Expect this trend to continue through the rest of the afternoon, perhaps with a slight northward expansion. There is little or no shear to provide any organization or really much movement, but plenty of instability and moisture available to fuel a few tall storms that could put down locally torrential rainfall and gusty winds. Could see showers and storms linger a bit into the evening, but should be finished within an hour or two after sunset. Patchy fog is possible toward daybreak Monday, and will be most concerning in any areas that see heavy rainfall this afternoon. However, expect just enough of a SW breeze to limit the areal extent of any fog, so no mention planned at the moment. As the day progresses on Monday, expect a cold front dropping through Illinois and Indiana to finally approach our area of responsibility. POPs really ramp up late in the day, with 60-70% chances across portions of southern Indiana. Could see a few pulse storms producing a marginal wind and heavy rain threat, even with slightly better dymamics than today. && .Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 By Monday night, the cold front associated with the closed low over Ontario is forecast to begin pushing into the southern IN/northern KY region. Showers and storms ahead of and along the front will continue moving across the area, with the potential for some stronger storms to still develop before instability begins to diminish. The front is then expected to continue sinking southward across the area Tuesday, eventually stalling out somewhere over the lower OH Valley/TN Valley and remaining in the vicinity through the week. With PWATs of 1.9 to 2.0 inches in place ahead of the front and moderate destabilization Tuesday afternoon, expect scattered storms capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning to develop. For now, the entire area has been placed in a Day 3 Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Although models continue to vary on how far south the front stalls out, expect to see some scattered showers and storms develop Wednesday afternoon, mainly over south-central KY. For the end of the week, models are suggesting a couple of waves of low pressure will move along the lingering frontal boundary, enhancing chances for showers and storms across the area. By this weekend, a more pronounced shortwave is then progged to swing through the MS Valley and across the area, bringing continued chances for showers and storms. Overall, temperatures will be a little cooler throughout the week with increased cloud coverage and rain chances. For Tuesday and Wednesday, highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s, then in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Scattered convection has started developing within the last 30-60 min and will be in play in all the terminals eventually. Will likely initialize all but LEX with VCTS. So far any cells are too transient to warrant more of a mention, as any restrictions shouldn't last more than a few min at a time. Will monitor to see if any storms become sufficiently clustered to warrant TEMPO groups. Ceilings will remain VFR, if only barely so. Look for convection to die down just after sunset this evening, with light SW winds overnight. Gradient will tighten just a bit late Monday morning, with extensive VFR Cu, but Monday's convection should hold off beyond the valid TAF period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && Short Term...RAS Long Term...JML Aviation...RAS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 328 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-271930- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 328 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 /228 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening. A few of the stronger storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, and frequent lightning is possible with any thunderstorm. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Widespread thunderstorms are possible late Monday through Tuesday. The stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, while lightning will be a hazard with any thunderstorm. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. RAS/JML
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Louisville KY 422 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 KYZ028-045-053-262045- Nelson-Hardin-Larue- 422 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NELSON...NORTH CENTRAL LARUE AND EAST CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTIES... At 421 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of Elizabethtown, moving east at 10 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Bardstown, New Haven, Lyons, Athertonville, Blue Gap, Bellwood, Culvertown, Roanoke, Balltown and Younger Creek. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. LAT...LON 3769 8580 3785 8562 3774 8538 3760 8564 TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 310DEG 13KT 3772 8566 DM
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
452 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020
KYZ045-046-054-262115-
Marion-Washington-Nelson-
452 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NELSON...NORTHWESTERN
MARION AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
At 451 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Bardstown, moving east at 10 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bardstown, New Haven, Loretto, Raywick, Burkes Spring, Saint Joseph,
Dant, Samuels Field Airport, Booker and Nerinx.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3756 8553 3762 8559 3763 8558 3762 8557
3763 8557 3764 8558 3764 8560 3769 8559
3770 8560 3786 8553 3781 8519 3749 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 289DEG 9KT 3771 8550
DMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
517 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
KYZ064-077-262245-
Adair-Green-
517 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GREEN AND CENTRAL
ADAIR COUNTIES...
At 517 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Columbia,
moving east at 10 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Pickett, Christine, Portland, Cundiff, Gadberry, Absher,
Bliss, Coburg and Fry.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3693 8528 3703 8551 3708 8552 3725 8546
3724 8541 3722 8541 3722 8537 3719 8535
3722 8533 3717 8515 3693 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 289DEG 10KT 3711 8542
DMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
530 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
KYZ076-262300-
Metcalfe-
530 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL METCALFE COUNTY...
At 529 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Edmonton,
moving southeast at 5 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Edmonton, Wisdom, Clarks Corner, Cork, Curtis, Cedar Flats, Gascon,
Beechville and New Liberty.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3700 8575 3701 8575 3711 8556 3710 8553
3706 8552 3704 8551 3701 8551 3699 8549
3690 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 298DEG 6KT 3703 8561
DMThe Louisville radar (KLVX), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:00 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Close to a foot of running water was flowing over Hudson Street in Columbia.
Parts of Old Gradyville Road were underwater.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 913763, 913765.