Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms were ongoing across eastern Kentucky Sunday June 12. A few of these storms reached severe limits, producing instances of hail and wind damage across Morgan, Magoffin, and Bath Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms were ongoing across eastern Kentucky Sunday June 12. A few of these storms reached severe limits, producing instances of hail and wind damage across Morgan, Magoffin, and Bath Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 3:39 PM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 439 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 348 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020 The afternoon surface analysis shows a weak low pressure to our west, and this feature will progress east tonight along with a cold front. The water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a mid level shortwave progressing into the Ohio Valley and that feature seems to be driving some convection this afternoon. The CAMs have tried to come into better alignment this afternoon with some showers and thunderstorms developing or moving into mainly the Bluegrass region. This activity is anticipated to progress southward into the area with the push of the mid level wave through the evening. The latest radar scans at around 19Z did show a few showers developing in Fleming county. The latest mesoanalysis from SPC shows a decent 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE has developed in portions of central and eastern Kentucky, but seeing some indications of lesser effective shear of around 30 knots at best. The better instability is expected to remain in the Bluegrass where more sun has been seen this afternoon, and this is evident on visible satellite where better cumulus field resides north of a differential heating boundary. This as debris clouds have kept the Cumberland Valley cooler through the morning and afternoon. This means mainly isolated severe storms would be the threat, with damaging winds being the main threat. The threat area seems to be mostly north of a differential heating boundary discussed earlier or mainly along and north of the Mountain Parkway, but as the mid level wave approaches the threat could shift southeast, however, more uncertainty exists in this region. Tonight storms will relent through the late evening, as instability decreases and shortwave pushes east. Then perhaps a little more fog will be possible behind this system and particularly in the areas that see rain this afternoon and evening. Otherwise weak northwest flow and building surface high pressure will be the story tonight. Monday the weather will feature clearing skies and weak northerly flow, as surface high crests and mid level heights rise in the Ohio Valley. Did increase temperatures some given the clearing skies despite the weak northerly flow. This surface high builds even closer to eastern Kentucky by Monday night and heights remain on the rise. Given this added more fog to the valleys and have temperatures a bit lower in the valleys. However, we could see a few upper 50s in the deeper valleys given the clear and calm conditions, but the fog could also keep temperatures at bay. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 439 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020 The heat returns from Tuesday right on through the weekend as a strong summer-time ridge builds eastward across the Southeast US. Temperatures rebound in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday afternoon and surge well into the 90s on Wednesday. Increasing humidity and cloud cover should tamp high temperatures down to near 90 from Thursday through the weekend but heat indices will still soar into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon, eclipsing the century mark at the hottest locales. Dry conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday yield to a renewed shower and storm threat at times from late Wednesday night through Sunday. Model agreement remains good through Wednesday but the GFS and Euro diverge on the strength of upper level ridging thereafter. The extended period begins 12Z Tuesday with upper level ridging building eastward across the southern CONUS from an upper level high centered over the Trans-Pecos region. To the north, an upper level trough will be traversing eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. The overall strength of the ridge remains the primary question from Thursday on through the weekend. The operational GFS continues to show the ridge partially breaking down over the SE US as multiple shortwave disturbances ride through the flow between the southern ridge and northern troughing. On the other hand, the Euro and GEFs feature a stronger and more resilient ridge over the Southeast US, although some weakness is evident with each passing shortwave. The 12Z Tuesday surface analysis shows surface high pressure extending southward from the Great Lakes keeping a dry NE flow across the area for Tuesday. Additionally, a strong subsidence inversion near 700 mb and unseasonably low PWATs well under 1 inch should result in mostly sunny skies and efficient surface warming processes Tuesday afternoon. Deep mixing and 850 temps warming to near 19-21C should support warm high temps in the 87-92 range while dew points remain in the low-to-mid 60s. The clear and dry atmosphere should support strong radiational cooling Tuesday night with temperatures falling back into the low-to-mid 60s. As previously advertised, even warmer temperatures are expected for Wednesday as 850mb temps nudge upwards to near 22-24C, which combined with deep mixing to 800 mb or higher, should support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Fortunately, dew points remain relatively low, which should keep the heat a little more tolerable. The capping finally starts to erode Wednesday afternoon/night as moisture increases ahead of the the first shortwave and an approaching cold front. Some models are hinting at a decaying MCS, associated with the shortwave, approaching the area Wednesday night, perhaps bringing a shower or storm to the Bluegrass late. Thereafter, the latest models would suggest that the front stalls north of the area through the weekend while additional shortwave energy provides sufficient forcing for additional shower storm development at times. The increased humidity levels and cloud cover should keep afternoon temperatures within a couple degrees of 90 each afternoon from Thursday onward while night lows range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, heat indices peak between 95 and 100 for most places each afternoon. Valley fog formation is also possible each night in the typical locales. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020 VFR skies prevail this afternoon, but we are starting to see some cumulus develop at around 4 to 5 kft. We are expecting more convection through the later afternoon and evening leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms. These could lead to MVFR or lower CIGs and IFR visibility for a short time mainly between 21 and 02z time frame. For now will keep this more general in the TAFs given the lack of more certainty on the convective evolution. The winds will mostly remain light out of the west and then become more northwest through the night. However, some stronger wind gusts would be possible under any of the thunderstorms this afternoon, as a few of these storms could become strong to severe. Also given the chance of precipitation, some post frontal fog and/or low stratus seems reasonable and therefore introduced that to this afternoons TAFs at all sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...DJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 406 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-132315- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 406 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon into Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail, along with frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from late Wednesday night through Saturday. Additionally, heat indices will peak in the 95 to 100 degree range each day from Thursday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to call in any storm reports this afternoon and evening. DJ/PGG
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:00 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch reported trees having been down between Owingsville and Olympia in Bath County. These trees also knocked down some power lines.
A public social media post showed an image of hail estimated to be the size of quarters in the community of Olympia.
Dispatch received a call that trees had been blown down just north of West Liberty. These trees also took down some power lines with them.
A public social media video showed hail estimated to be the size of nickels falling east of West Liberty.
The public reported trees having been blown down south of Salyersville due to strong thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 894135, 894134, 894132, 894131, 894133.