Early morning showers and thunderstorms in Morgan County led to localized flooding issues near Ezel, due to a stopped up culvert.
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Early morning showers and thunderstorms in Morgan County led to localized flooding issues near Ezel, due to a stopped up culvert.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 3:54 AM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 454 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 453 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2020 There is finally an end in site to this very wet pattern we have been having. It won't be today...but just one day away... We are still in the midst of a blocking pattern, with a strong upper level low to our NE, and a SW leaning trough axis that will include much of the state to start the day. This trough axis will slowly shift southward through the state during the day, continuing to move away from the state as we head into the evening and overnight. At the surface, we will have a stationary and quickly weakening boundary parked just NE of the CWA, which should dissipate by this evening, while another stationary boundary sets up just to our south by the afternoon. This strengthening southern boundary, along with the upper level lift of the trough, should be enough to promote more shower and thunderstorm development, mainly across the southern half of the CWA. This is also closer to where the 850 boundary will be set up by this afternoon, as it continues on it's track southward as well. With generally southerly flow in place in the low levels below the 850 boundary, temperatures will be trend a bit warmer today compared to yesterday. In fact, highest temps may be across the northern CWA, away from the convection and cloud cover. As far as storms, the warm temps and the moist atmosphere will lend themselves to another day of very strong instability, with CAPE over 3,000 J/kg and lapse rates between 6 and 7 degrees C/kg by 18Z. With drying in the upper levels, and moisture confined to the llvls, once again everything looks perfect for a severe weather setup...except for the winds. Above the 850 boundary, light northerly winds will be in place, with very little llvl directional or really any speed shear for that matter. If anything, the winds will be backing as we move up the column. So, as has been the case in previous days, expect storms to pulse up (some fairly high)...but they will be unorganized, they will not propagate very quickly, and then about as fast as they pulse up, they will begin to collapse on themselves. Another thing to note is that the moisture will be very shallow in the llvls, with PWATS not nearly as high as previous days. Therefore, the flash flood potential today will be isolated at best. Once we head into the overnight, the trough axis and frontal boundary will continue to shift farther southward away from the state. Meanwhile, high pressure will begin to build in from the north. This will allow for clearing skies across the region. A near- surface inversion also looks to set up, which could trap llvl moisture near the surface, and may lead to fog development across much of the CWA. By Thursday, this high pressure will continue to work its way into the region, with mostly clear skies expected to remain intact. Diurnally driven convection will likely develop to our south, closer to the boundary, but latest models do not show any precip making it as far north as our CWA. If this holds true, this could be our first dry forecast day in quite some time! Temperatures will warm a bit more, with highs in the upper 80s across the board. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 425 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2020 The models remain in broad agreement on the pattern aloft through the extended portion of the forecast. They all depict ridging over the area during this time with scant opportunities for influences of any mid level impulses of note - this is despite the ridge not being particularly strong. As a result, expect some weakness to its suppression effects with time - especially after the 4th. In fact, Sunday may see the best chance at some minor influence from a mid level wave's tail end drifts southwest through eastern Kentucky briefly knocking the ridge towards the 585 height decameter. The GFS is a bit more aggressive with this, still rather weak intrusion, than the ECMWF. Heights pop back up by that afternoon and likely remain near the 588 level through the start of the new week. Given the small model spread see no reason for any large scale deviations from the NBM starting point. Sensible weather will feature the typical doldrums of summer with very warm temperatures and the increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and into the evening - adhering to the normative diurnal pattern. Slightly higher heights aloft through Saturday will minimize the afternoon convection, but they decrease a notch for Monday and Tuesday likely yielding better chances for more than isolated convection. Temperatures will also benefit from the higher heights initially, though probably mitigated on Friday in the Cumberland Valley by the higher moisture content in the ground from the recent rains. Saturday and Sunday should have less of that component affecting temperatures but for the week's beginning more clouds and convection will keep afternoon readings a tad lower compared to the weekend numbers. At night, expect a decent ridge to valley temperature split through Sunday morning as diurnal cu will clear off each evening and built up later in the morning. Thereafter, just a small difference is anticipated owing to the higher moisture content. For temperatures in the extended from the NBM, made minor and mainly point based adjustments for highs each day - though more significant and terrain based adjustments to lows each night - more so early on. With the PoPs, played along with the NBM's sensible, diurnal driven pattern - only slightly enhancing it each mid to late afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2020 Conditions should remain dry at the TAF sites overnight, with cloud cover helping to inhibit fog development. The exceptions are KSJS and KSYM, which are both located on the outskirts of the cloud deck. This will make the forecast a complicated one overnight. If clouds move across the TAF site, fog will not develop. However, if the cloud deck retreats and clearing occurs, VIS may quickly drop, as has already occurred so far during the overnight. Went IFR at both sites, but could see some variability in both directions. Will update TAFs if conditions become predominate enough to warrant it. Once we hit daybreak, another round of sct showers and thunderstorms are on tap, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Given the uncertainty on where these storms will set up, kept with predominate VFR conditions and VCTS...however, any shower or storm could result in a quick deterioration of conditions as it moves over. These should dissipate again by evening, with VFR conditions on tap heading into the first part of the overnight. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period, outside of any stronger storms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JMW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 403 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021115- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 403 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Sunday through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. JMW/GREIF
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 541 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 KYZ044-052-104-106-107-109-110-119-120-011430- Fleming-Rowan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Magoffin-Floyd-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Morehead, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 541 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 ...Areas of Dense Fog Possible During the Morning Commute... The lack of cloud cover across far northeast Kentucky has led to conditions favorable for fog development. Fog will be worst in the deeper valleys and near bodies of water. Be cautions if traveling, as visibilities could quickly be reduced to a quarter mile or less in some locations. Use low beam headlines and allow extra time to reach your destination. Fog should lift and dissipate by 9AM today. JMW
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The local Department of Highways reported a stopped up culvert being washed out, leading to high water issues along Kentucky Highways 3345 and 772 northeast of Ezel.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 892437.