Several shortwaves rotating through an upper level low off the New England / Mid-Atlantic coast triggered numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. These showers and thunderstorms produced strong to severe winds, heavy downpours, and in some cases, small hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PHI wrote it up.
Several shortwaves rotating through an upper level low off the New England / Mid-Atlantic coast triggered numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. These showers and thunderstorms produced strong to severe winds, heavy downpours, and in some cases, small hail. Activity ended with the loss of daytime heating.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 9:47 AM EST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1047 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to remain over New England into tonight. The feature is expected to slide southeastward on Thursday and Friday. A cold front approaching from the northeast is anticipated to pass through our region on Friday evening. High pressure is forecast to nose into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, Delaware and northeastern Maryland from the northeast and east for Saturday and Sunday. A weakening cold front may arrive from the northwest early in the new week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Daytime heating continues and Cu/Sc fields developing across the area. Scattered showers are across Delmarva, offshore Atlantic City and most recently across nrn NJ in Somerset county. Local downpours and gusty winds with the activity. Coverage of the showers should increase and tstm activity also will be sct for the most part. Pops were raised for most areas in the most recent ESTF. Winds will be mostly light and variable today, perhaps favoring a N or NW direction. Temps were not changed and should be a bit below normal in the upper 70s/low 80s in most areas for maxs. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As the short wave trough axis moves eastward over the Atlantic and loss of diurnal heating, showers and thunderstorms will gradually come to dissipate in a similar manner to yesterday after sunset with only a few lingering into the early overnight hours. With this, the cut-off low will finally begin to see its pathway out of our lives as it begins to shear out into a positive tilt. After showers dissipate, a quiet night will ensue with light and variable winds and temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 60s. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out, especially in areas that see rainfall closer to evening without appreciable time to evaporate. Neglected to mention this in the grids with low confidence at this point. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The mid level low is forecast to continue drifting to the southeast and farther out to sea on Thursday. It will gradually lose its influence over our weather. We are anticipating only scattered clouds for Thursday and Thursday night with little chance for precipitation. A back door cold front is expected to reach the northern coast of New Jersey on Friday afternoon before pushing through much the rest of our region on Friday evening. The very warm humid air ahead of the boundary will likely provide enough instability to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms from Friday afternoon into Friday night. High pressure is forecast to nose into our region from the northeast and east for Saturday and Sunday. The sky is anticipated to be mostly sunny both days with only a very limited chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The model guidance is not in very good agreement for the early part of the new week. A weak cold front may drop into our region at that time. Also, there are varying ideas regarding low pressure moving off the Southeast coast. We will continue with the forecast of very warm humid conditions along with a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures during the period from Thursday through Tuesday should be seasonable. It looks as though the warmest day will be Friday, ahead of the backdoor cold front. Saturday should be a bit cooler than the other days due to the development of a northeast to east wind in the wake of the boundary. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Generally VFR attm with recent MVFR CIG developing at KPNE. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop and should continue to increase in coverage thru the afternoon. AMDS expected with tstms. Light and variable winds generally 5 knots or less with a northerly direction favored. Showers may linger awhile after 00Z, but should generally dissipate after sunset. Local and temporary restrictions to MVFR possible with these showers and thunderstorms. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR with scattered showers early. Patchy fog possible. Light northwesterly winds up to 5 knots. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday...Early morning MVFR/IFR conditions are possible, then mainly VFR. Variable wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence. Thursday night...Mainly VFR with the potential for areas of MVFR/IFR in fog and low clouds after 06Z. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence. Friday...Early morning MVFR/IFR conditions are possible, then mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with local MVFR/IFR conditions. Variable wind 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence. Friday night...Mainly VFR with the potential for MVFR ceilings developing. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms with local MVFR/IFR conditions. East to northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence. Saturday...MVFR ceilings are possible in the morning, then mainly VFR. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence. Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence. Sunday...Mainly VFR. Southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence. && .MARINE... Sub-advisory conditions are expected today and tonight with easterly winds from 5 to 10 knots turning southwesterly overnight. Seas from 1 to 3 feet. Scattered thunderstorms with locally higher winds and seas. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...No marine headlines are anticipated. Rip Currents... With waves in the surf zone increasing to 2 to 3 feet and a long period onshore swell developing today, expect the risk for dangerous rip currents to increase to moderate for the beaches of Atlantic, Ocean, and Monmouth counties. The highest chance for rip current should be during the morning hours during low tide. The risk falls back to low on Thursday as onshore flow abates. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We are coming up on a full moon this weekend and the level of the astronomical high tides will continue to rise through that time. The evening high tides are over a foot higher than those in the morning. We may begin to see some spotty minor flooding along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware on Thursday evening. A developing east to northeast wind for late Friday into Saturday may cause somewhat more widespread minor flooding around the evening high tides on both days. The minor flooding could work its way up Delaware Bay and into the tidal Delaware River, as well. We are not anticipating any issues with the morning high tides. We will continue to monitor trends over the coming days. We are not expecting any tidal flooding on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. && .EQUIPMENT... The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 Derecho. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...PO Short Term...Davis Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Davis/Iovino/PO Marine...Davis/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding... Equipment...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 404 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>024-027- PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-020815- New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD- Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset- Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe- Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- 404 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NJZ014-025-026-020815- Eastern Monmouth-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- 404 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ430-431-450>455-020815- Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 404 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and Delaware Bay Waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1053 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020
NJZ008-010-011530-
Morris-Somerset-
1053 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS AND
NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES...
At 1053 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Basking Ridge,
or near Morristown, moving east at 5 mph.
Pea size hail is possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Madison, Florham Park, East Hanover, Chatham, Morris
Plains, Mendham, Parsippany, Millington, Basking Ridge,
Bernardsville, Watchung and Hanover Township.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 35 and 43.
Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 44 and 47.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 26 and 42.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 4079 7437 4076 7437 4075 7436 4067 7446
4066 7445 4067 7443 4066 7440 4063 7442
4062 7456 4075 7464 4090 7435 4084 7433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1453Z 252DEG 6KT 4073 7449
SFJThe Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:59 UTC.
2 heavy rain, 2 hail, 1 lightning, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain which fell within one-half hour reported in South Old Bridge. A 24-hour total between 1.0 and 2.0 inches of rain was estimated in this area by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center based on radar. Time estimated.
Storm total of 4.02 inches reported by a CoCoRaHS observer. Time estimated by radar.
Lightning struck a house at 318 Beckerville Road near Lakehurst. The resulting fire destroyed the house.
Quarter size hail (around one inch in diameter) was reported in Petersburg. Time estimated from radar.
Tree down on the Garden State Parkway north of Seaville. Time estimated from radar.
Multiple reports of quarter size hail (around one inch in diameter) in Ocean City. Time estimated from radar.
Evergreen Drive flooded out in Seaville. Emergency manager mentioned it is rare for this road to be flooded. A 24-hour total between 2.5 and 3.0 inches of rain was estimated in this area by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center based on radar. Time estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Jersey in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in New Jersey, July 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 891216, 891222, 891217, 891214, 891218, 891215, 891213.