A cold front brought strong northwesterly wind gusts during the late afternoon on November 14th. A strong low pressure system across southern Canada forced a cold front through north central Kansas during the late afternoon hours.
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The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
A cold front brought strong northwesterly wind gusts during the late afternoon on November 14th. A strong low pressure system across southern Canada forced a cold front through north central Kansas during the late afternoon hours. Strong northwest wind gusts accompanied the passage of the front, particularly across the western third of the County Warning Area (CWA). A peak wind gust of 63 mph was measured in Phillips County, KS, but there was no known damage or impacts from the high wind. The severe wind gust was supported by intense pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb per 2 hours. The arrival time of the front during or just after peak mixing was also a contributing factor. Peak wind gusts further east were weaker, but still strong, at speeds of 50 to 55 mph, as far east as Highway 281. Peak wind gusts remained less than 50mph east of Highway 281 as the 2hr pressure rises decreased to 2-3 mb.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 14, 11:16 AM CST, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1116 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday) Issued at 348 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Quiet conditions reign across the area early this morning, with satellite data showing clear skies for the majority of the CWA, the exception being some upper level clouds moving into far NWrn areas. In the upper levels, flow across the region has been turning southwesterly with time, with broad ridging over the eastern CONUS and a shortwave disturbance making its way across the Rockies. At the surface, our winds remain southerly, with a trough of low pressure sitting over the High Plains. Speeds have mainly been in the 10-15 MPH range, but there has been an occasional gusts closer to 20 MPH. No surprises with temps overnight, with 3AM obs ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Today and tonight... Main concerns of fire weather issues and precipitation are confined mainly to the 18-00Z time frame today. Models remain in good agreement showing the above mentioned upper level shortwave trough axis continuing to push east today, and looks to clear the CWA to the east by late evening/midnight tonight. There isn't much moisture for this system to work with, but models (some more so than others) continue to show the potential for at least sprinkles/light showers with the passage of the trough axis. The best chances for precipitation look to be across our south central NE counties (esp along/north of I-80), but will keep the mention of isolated sprinkles further south to areas along the NE/KS state line. This looks to be a mid-late afternoon event, perhaps lingering an hour or two past 00Z. Did adjust afternoon cloud cover up a bit as well. The accompanying sfc cold front will push through the area during the day today. By midday, a more westerly wind direction is expected to be in place across most of/if not all of the CWA. The better push of NWrly winds and stronger speeds looks to be after noon. Overall just minor adjustments were made to the timing/sustained speeds, but did adjust wind gusts up closer to what the RAP/HRRR are showing. Especially with the main surge of winds right with passage of the front, sustained speeds of around 30 MPH are expected, and adjusted gusts up to around 45-50 MPH for more of the CWA...but wouldn't be surprised to have at least a few gusts closer to 55 MPH. Another round of fire weather concerns returns for this afternoon, with the highest risk confined to the southwestern corner of the CWA. Most recent run of models/guidance were not as aggressive with dropping dewpoints, so confidence in how that evolves through the day is not high...no doubt the potential of more cloud cover/light precip raises uncertainty. Only minor adjustments were made to highs for today, which are in the 50s/low 60s. The resulting RH values this afternoon bottom out right at 20 percent for a small portion of the CWA...but whether or not those values are sustained for 3 hrs is a question mark. Decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for the counties that have the best chance of hitting the RH/time criteria (no issue with the winds being there)...Furnas/Harlan in NE and Phillips/Rooks/Osborne in KS. Ended up cancelling the headline for Dawson/Gosper, models suggest if those areas did approach or hit the RH criteria, it'd be short in duration. It will be something for the day shift to keep a close eye on. Sunday and Sunday night... The latter half of the weekend remains dry, with northwesterly flow building in aloft in the wake of today/tonight's trough passage. Expecting to see a return of mostly clear skies CWA-wide. Winds turn more westerly for much of the day, with sfc high pressure moving into the Srn Plains. Speeds will not be as strong as today, but breezy conditions are expected to linger through the morning/early afternoon hours, before tapering off. As that sfc high slides further east, winds by evening turn to the south. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the 50s, but a drier airmass builds in across the region, with dewpoints falling into the teens/20s. Fire weather concerns will again arise during the afternoon hours, as relative humidity values fall into the teens for much of the area. Those winds will be the main question, as they should be subsiding as the afternoon passes when RH values are falling. It'll be a close call, will continue to carry near- critical wording in the HWO. Next work week... The main story for the upcoming work week is the dry conditions dominating the forecast, and warming temperatures. Models remain in good agreement showing the upper level pattern amplifying across the CONUS on Monday, broad troughing digs a bit further south over the eastern CONS and ridging build north over the Rockies, bringing our area sharper northwesterly flow. This ridge remains the main feature over our area into Wednesday, with its axis getting pushed east onto the Central Plains. Later in the week, upper level flow turns more zonal, the ridge broken down by energy moving out of the the Pac NW/Nrn Rockies. Next chances for precipitation don't return to the forecast until Friday night- Saturday, but there are plenty of model differences to work out to have much confidence at this point. As far as temperatures go, after highs in the low-mid 50s for Sunday, should have more readings well into the 50s/low-mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday are currently forecast to be the warmest days, with plenty of 60s and even some 70s possible across southern portions of the CWA. Highs cool off for Friday- Saturday, but will be dependent on the system bringing those precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 VFR conditions continue through the end of the period. The only real concerns today are strong winds (gusts to around 40-45 kts possible) and LLWS tonight that could last through mid morning tomorrow. There is also the potential for more strong gusty winds tomorrow, but there is more uncertainty in the forecast at this point, so confidence is not as high regarding magnitude. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ082-083. KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ005-017-018. && DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Shawkey
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 357 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 151200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 357 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the outlook area this afternoon, primarily along and west of a line from Kearney Nebraska to Beloit Kansas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for extreme southwestern portions of the outlook area. Please refer to the latest warning message for additional information. Strong northwest winds are expected to develop across the outlook area this afternoon behind a passing cold front. Sustained speeds near 30 MPH and gusts near 45 to 50 MPH will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Sunday afternoon, near-critical fire weather conditions are possible across much of the outlook area, though winds will not be as strong as today. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A wind gust of 63 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located 1 mile west of Logan.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, November 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 923639.