NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 12:52 PM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 19, 12:52 PM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
152 PM MDT Tue May 19 2020
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms
will gradually increase in coverage as the low lifts northeast
across the state through tomorrow. There is a risk of
strong/isolated severe thunderstorms through this evening,
especially over the central mountains where SPC has expanded the
Marginal risk area today. In reality, any storm today could easily
produce strong winds over 40 mph and/or small hail. Outside of
showers and storms there could be some gusty winds at times
overall. There might be a better chance tomorrow across the Snake
Plain, where localized blowing dust might occur. Snow levels
still drop to near 7000-7500ft across the Sawtooths southern
highlands, while they will be closer to 8000-8500ft near Island
Park and the Wyoming border. We could see some brief accumulations
in the Stanley Basin and on our highest summits, but impacts will
not be widespread or last too long as melting will eventually
take over. If you are venturing to our highest peaks, then you
will need to worry about having winter gear as some lingering
accumulations are possible.
For tomorrow night and Thursday, we will be in between storms.
Lingering showers and possible thunderstorms are forecast across
the mountains, especially the Sawtooths and east of I-15. Snow
levels will be lower overall, 6500-7500ft, Thursday morning. Trace
amounts of snow are possible down to those levels, but again
nothing impactful is anticipated. Winds will be gusty in the
afternoon, but lower than Wednesday so any impacts would be very
isolated. Keyes
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
Fri continues to look quite wet as a pronounced shortwave rotates
into the area with an attendant cold front progged for Fri eve.
Instability should be somewhat hampered by high temps only making it
into the upper 40s/mid 50s, but based on the favorable diurnal
timing of the front and upper-level dynamics, will continue to carry
mention of thunder with no severe wx currently expected. QPF amounts
in excess of 1/2 inch will be possible across the srn/ern highlands
into the Island Park region, with a couple inches of snow possible
above 6,000-7,000 feet CWA-wide with those colder temps. At this
time accumulations should remain high enough in elevation to avoid
any major impacts to travel, even at the passes. A few showers/t-
storms may linger Sat, esp in the mntns. We'll also have to keep an
eye on how much skies clear Sat AM, as any clearing may allow temps
to fall into the low 30s with the risk for frost just about
everywhere. Long-range models continue to run very dry for Sun/Mon
with a broad ridge of high pres taking control. NBM guidance remains
a bit sluggish to catch up and continues to carry PoPs each day, so
we again trimmed these back to better mirror the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
consensus. Confidence in this drier solution is growing with decent
run-to-run consistency. A better signal for clearing Sun AM means
another round of frost possible. A warming trend is also expected to
start Sun afternoon, with 70s returning to lower elevations by Mon.
Tues, the warming trend continues, and models advertise varying
degrees of longwave troughing returning across the nrn Rockies. It
remains to be seen whether or not this feature will produce much
precip, but it does appear to be much more progressive and short-
lived compared to the stagnant cool/unsettled patterns we have
frequently found ourselves in over the past few weeks. - KSmith
&&
.AVIATION...This afternoon will not be as breezy as yesterday, but based on
projected downslope flow advertised on HRRR guidance and how well
this performed yesterday, we continue to carry 20G30kts at KPIH out
of the S/SW (higher than MOS guidance). Elsewhere, while winds have
decreased since yesterday, potential for TS has increased with high-
res HREF ensemble members generating some pretty widespread activity
after 20-21z along and west of the I-15 corridor (KPIH/KIDA),
possibly lingering until midnight or later. Potential for a TS to
hit a terminal is definitely there for KPIH/KIDA/KBYI/KSUN, but with
a few differences noted between different high-res reflectivity
projections and the fact that most of the activity doesn't exist
yet, we continued to blanket VCTS and will have to closely monitor
observational trends for the need to amend. Decent low-level
moisture may take the edge off downdraft efficiency today compared
to yesterday, but a few stronger storms could still squeak out small
hail or erratic wind gusts. Main focus tonight will be cigs, as
guidance trends all sites toward MVFR over the course of the night.
At this time, greatest concern for BKN or better MVFR cigs is at
KBYI/KSUN after 07-09z. We leaned into this potential in the TAFs,
but will need to monitor trends in case cigs try to nudge lower,
which is possible given nocturnal precip in the area. At this time
IFR conditions remain unlikely. In general expect a repeat
performance Wed with breezy conditions and showers/storms. -
KSmith
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward over
the next two days and expand in coverage. The unsettled weather
continues through at least Sat evening, then high pressure returns
for Sun through Mon, at a minimum. The low coming in will bring its
cold core over the central Idaho mountains by Wed; this air is cold
enough to bring snow back to the higher elevations, mostly above
7500ft. Farther south is a lower concern, as the air is warmer and
the terrain is lower. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend
through Fri, then as the low slowly departs Sat night, skies will
start clearing and temperatures will warm. With cool temperatures
and abundant precipitation, humidity will remain high. With the
approaching low, wind will be breezy to windy, but not as strong as
Mon wind. Wind will continue to be at least breezy (10-20 mph)
through Fri. Messick
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&