Flooding in Indiana, May 19 to 30, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
756 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

Our friend the upper low will continue to meander over the
Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio Valley through Thursday night.
Showers will continue mainly east of the Mississippi River early
this evening, with chances decreasing and retreating eastward late
this evening and overnight. Shower chances will pick up and
spread back westward on Wednesday, with models indicating dry
conditions for Wednesday night. Shower chances return to just our
far eastern counties on Thursday when models show the upper low
centered a little farther east of the PAH forecast area.

Models show LIs near zero to possibly -1 Wednesday afternoon
across mainly the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky, so included
slight chances of thunderstorms. Otherwise, LIs generally remain
positive elsewhere, and across our area on Thursday, so we will
just see isolated to scattered showers.

By Thursday night, a change in our weather pattern finally begins
as the upper level low retreats a little farther east and a
surface low approaches the middle Mississippi valley from the
southwest. Thursday evening should remain dry, but by the
overnight hours some showers may move into the Ozark Foothills of
Missouri.

We will see a gradual warm up through Thursday, but high
temperatures will remain below seasonal values, with lows near
seasonal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

At the end of week, our pesky upper level low will continue to
slowly move east of the area. A subtle upper level disturbance will
migrate east into southeast MO during the early morning hours on
Friday but dampen with time afterwards. The main areas of impact
appear to be southeast MO and parts of west KY at this time, as this
is where the highest instability will be centered over. Therefore,
will maintain the low end 20-30 PoPs in the morning. Meanwhile, a
weak upper level ridge will build in across the CWA during the day
on Friday. Therefore, the chances for precipitation by Friday
afternoon should very small as there is little focus with a benign
pattern at the surface.

The upper level ridge moves east Friday night and the pattern
becomes rather messy after that. The timing and strength of subtle
disturbances in this type of pattern are challenging for the models
to work out, but the next substantial signal for convection returns
late Friday night (after midnight) into Saturday. Again, due to low
confidence, PoPs will remain in the lower side.

For the rest of the weekend and into early next week, the pattern
continues to look messy with very weak surface features to latch
onto and persistent southwesterly flow aloft along with a decent
amount of moisture. Lots of likely PoPs inherited by the latest NBM
which might be a bit much this far out, so will try and tamper those
down to more reasonable numbers. The only time frame that might
require higher PoPs is Monday when a decaying front will be
meandering this way.

Highs will generally be in the lower 80s, except for Friday when
upper 70s are expected. We will be seeing an uptick in dewpoints as
we head into the weekend and early next week, resulting in much more
humid conditions. No real signals of any severe weather at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

Highly variable flight conditions ranging from IFR to VFR should
transition to mainly IFR and low end MVFR through the night,
mainly due to low ceilings. However, some MVFR fog is possible
late in the night, especially at KMVN, KCGI, and KPAH. Isolated
showers will continue to be possible over the next 24 hours, with
a little better coverage during the afternoon. Light and variable
winds tonight will become northeast around 10 knots on Wednesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
342 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-202045-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
342 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

An isolated thunderstorm is possible in the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Monday. Lightning
and brief heavy rainfall are expected to be the main thunderstorm
hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.