Hawaii, 2020High Wind in Hawaii, March 11 to 14, 2020
March 11 to 14, 2020 · NWS HFO · 1 event in 1 county or zone
An upper trough moving north of the islands produced southwest to west winds over the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa that gusted near 70 knots. No serious injuries or property damage were reported.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
An upper trough moving north of the islands produced southwest to west winds over the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa that gusted near 70 knots. No serious injuries or property damage were reported.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Honolulu, HI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 11, 3:51 AM HST, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 3:51 AM HST, 3 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
351 AM HST Wed Mar 11 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Light large scale winds will allow local scale land and sea
breezes to develop over each island through Friday. A cold front
approaching Hawaii from the northwest will complicate the weather
picture from Thursday onward with increasing clouds and showers as
it arrives over Kauai by Thursday morning. The forward motion on
the front will stall out over Oahu and Molokai on Friday. Deeper
tropical moisture will move up into the islands from the south
starting on Saturday creating numerous showers, heavy at times,
including some thunderstorms across the region. A strong upper
level trough will drop into the islands from the northwest on
Sunday and Monday producing a cut off low situation that may turn
into a kona low weather event for the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows a weakening cold front roughly 300 miles
northwest of Kauai with more stable looking stratocumulus and
cumulus clouds east of the island chain. Light large scale winds
today will allow land and sea breezes to set up across the
Hawaiian Islands. Converging sea breezes today will produce clouds
over interior sections of each island from late morning into the
early evening hours with isolated to scattered showers. Our
weather pattern will trend wetter from Thursday onward as a
weakening cold front moves into the islands from the northwest.
Thursday and Friday...Big changes are afoot as wet weather regime
moves into the western Hawaiian Islands on Thursday. A weakening
cold front will move over Kauai around sunrise Thursday morning.
Clouds and showers along this frontal zone will spread eastward to
Oahu and Molokai by Thursday night and this is where the forward
motion of the frontal boundary will stall out. By Friday clouds
and showers along this diminishing front will spread out to the
rest of Maui County. The Big Island will see more scattered
showers as deeper tropical moisture is drawn up from the south.
This transition to a more unsettled weather pattern is only the
beginning of a potential five day period of wet conditions across
the Hawaiian Islands.
Saturday and Sunday...Medium range guidance shows the front will
dissipate into a surface trough and light southeasterly winds
will push this trough back westward into Kauai with additional
tropical moisture filling in from the south. A strong upper level
trough approaches the islands from the northwest on Sunday
increasing atmospheric instability and convective showers across
the region. Global weather models diverge a bit on how far south
the trough will dig into the region. The American (GFS) model
shows a strong upper low developing just west of Kauai by Sunday
night into Monday, while the European (ECMWF) model keeps much of
this cold air and instability passing just north of the island
chain. If the GFS model is correct we could see a kona low
developing west of Kauai with significant heavy rainfall affecting
the western half of the state from Sunday night through Monday.
Models have struggled with the position on this upper low and
small changes to the final strength and location of this system
will create big impacts to the forecast for each island. At this
point, our confidence in the kona low scenario is poor at this
time, since if the ECMWF solution verifies then the wet weather
conditions for the island will be less severe. However, periods of
heavy rain, thunderstorms and localized flooding are a threat
this weekend with a fair degree of confidence. Island by island
impacts will need to wait a few days for the longer range model
guidance to settle on one solution.
Monday through Tuesday...Wet weather trends continue in a broad
brush forecast sense due to the large degree of forecast
uncertainty. Divergent guidance solutions are forcing us to blend
both the GFS and ECMWF models to keep showers in the forecast
through Tuesday. The ECMWF model solutions are showing the
surface trough pushing eastward through the Big Island on Tuesday
with drier air for the western islands as high pressure builds in
drier and more air from the west. The GFS model however continues
to show a much heavier rain and thunderstorm event continuing
across much of the state. Stay tuned for changes to the weather
forecast during this time period as this weather situation will
certainly evolve over time.
&&
.AVIATION...
Weak flow in advance of an approaching cold front will allow land
breezes to predominate at night and sea breezes during the day.
Cumulus build-ups are expected to redevelop over island interiors
this afternoon and persist through the early evening hours. Isolated
MVFR CIG and VIS are to be expected in brief showers. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail all areas. No AIRMETs are currently in
effect and none are expected at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
A front will approach from the northwest today, stall out in the
vicinity of Kauai on Thursday, then dissipate by Friday. A trough
of low pressure will develop over the central islands late
Thursday through Friday, remain stationary through Saturday, then
shift into the western islands or west of the state Sunday. Winds
are expected to remain generally light across the state through
Friday. Moderate northeasterly flow may develop this weekend
across the western end of the state, while moderate to strong
southeasterly winds develop over the eastern islands. Winds may
approach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds over the eastern
waters on Sunday, and may reach SCA levels across the central and
western islands early next week. Seas may reach SCA levels at
times across portions of the marine area exposed to a large
north-northwest swell Thursday through Saturday.
A small north-northeast swell will keep small surf in place along
east facing shores through Thursday. A small northwest swell will
hold in place today, then shift around to the north-northwest and
build to large levels from northwest to southeast down the island
chain late tonight and Thursday. The swell will peak Thursday
night and Friday, then gradually lower Saturday through early next
week. Surf will likely reach advisory levels along exposed north
and west facing shores beginning Thursday across Kauai and Oahu,
and Thursday night across Molokai and Maui. Advisory level surf
will likely hold in place through Friday night, then trend below
advisory thresholds Saturday or Saturday night. Small long period
south and southwest swells will maintain some small surf along
the south facing shores through early next week.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory in effect through 6 PM HST Friday for Big Island
Summits.
&&
DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...Jelsema
High Wind, Big Island Summit
- When
- March 11, 7:09 AM HST to March 14, 5:29 AM HST
- Where
- Big Island Summit forecast zone
- Measured
- 70 kt (81 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
- Coordinates
- 19.602, -155.523 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Hail and Damaging Wind in Arkansas, March 11, 2020$52,000 · 1 in hail · 2 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, March 11, 2020$35,000 · 50 kt wind · 4 events
- Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, March 11 to 14, 20201.75 in hail · 19 events
- Flood and Hail in Missouri, March 11, 20201 in hail · 6 events
- Hail in Alabama, March 11, 20201.25 in hail · 3 events
- Hail and Heavy Rain in Kansas, March 11, 20200.75 in hail · 2 events
- Flooding in South Dakota, March 11 to 17, 20202 events
- Hail in Oklahoma, March 11, 2020$10,000 · 1 in hail · 1 event
- Winter Storm in Montana, March 11 to 12, 20201 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 875025.