Guam, 2020

Drought in Guam, February 1 to 29, 2020

February 1 to 29, 2020 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Dry weather has persisted long enough at a few locations in Micronesia so that drought conditions have started.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Dry weather has persisted long enough at a few locations in Micronesia so that drought conditions have started.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 8:12 AM UTC, 5 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 8:12 AM UTC, 5 hours 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
612 PM ChST Fri Jan 31 2020

.Marianas Synopsis...
A cold front continues to drop southeastward toward the Marianas and
is currently about 450 miles to the northwest. To the south, a broad,
weak circulation is centered near 7N145E with showers and
thunderstorms spanning the region from Yap to Chuuk to just south of
Guam. Closer to the Marianas, gentle winds persist with only isolated
showers seen nearby. Winds were light enough today that some island-
effect showers developed just to the west of southern Guam. Combined
seas remain around 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Models maintain a wet outlook for the weekend as the two systems
converge on the Marianas. Moisture will gradually increase Saturday
with wet conditions, perhaps up to 2 inches of rain, persist into
Monday. Winds will remain light and variable into Saturday morning,
but will turn around from the northeast and gradually increase,
possibly up to around 20 mph Saturday afternoon and evening. The cold
front will transition into a shear line as it nears the area and will
stall over the islands Saturday night and Sunday before drifting back
northward Monday as easterly winds try to push back in to the area.
Conditions will slowly improve early next week. Models show easterly
winds pushing the shear line farther north and west such that skies
will fall back to partly cloudy by midweek. In the long term, another
shear line could affect the region again next weekend.

&&

.Marine...
Seas of about 5 feet with light to gentle winds will continue through
Saturday morning. A growing north swell has already been detected by
Saipan buoy and that swell is expected to increase more Saturday and
Saturday night. More notably, northeast winds will quickly increase
from western waters Saturday morning to the eastern waters in the
afternoon. Seas will quickly become choppy during the day as winds
reach up to between 15 and 25 kt by Saturday evening. Winds will
ultimately ease off early next week. Will have to watch buoys and
altimetry as model data keep seas just shy of hazardous levels.
Similarly, surf stays just below hazardous levels for now, but surf
will become choppy as winds pick up.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A surface trough could be found just east of Kosrae this afternoon.
The trough will move slowly westward and eventually merge with a
Near Equatorial Trough south of Pohnpei by Monday. The trough will
bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to Kosrae tonight
through Saturday night. Much of the activity associated with the
trough will pass south of Pohnpei but will be close enough to produce
mostly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms at Pohnpei tonight
through Sunday night. Drier air will move into these two locations
the first half of the coming week keeping skies partly cloudy and
showers isolated. At Majuro lingering moisture will keep skies mostly
cloudy there tonight. The drier air will move into Majuro earlier
than the other two locations and keep showers isolated and skies
partly cloudy Saturday through Wednesday.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A circulation could be found east of Yap this afternoon near 7N144E.
Models move it slowly westward through the weekend. GFS has it
weakening into a trough by Monday night while the ECMWF keeps it as
a weak circulation. In any case, the trough/circulation is predicted
to pass near Palau by Tuesday night. Models keep the shower coverage
patchy so expect only mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and
thunderstorms at Palau Sunday through Tuesday. Convergence in the
wake of the circulation/trough will keep the same weather over
Palau Wednesday. Yap can also expected mostly cloudy skies with
isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night. Low-level
convergence will produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at Yap Monday through Wednesday.

The pressure gradient between the circulation/trough and high
pressure to the north will increase the winds across Palau and Yap
with winds of 15 to 20 knots at Palau Sunday through Monday and
between Saturday night and Wednesday at Yap with higher winds Sunday
and Sunday night. Winds may be hazardous for small craft at Yap
Sunday and Sunday night. Winds north of these two locations over the
Philippine Sea will push higher swells across Palau and Yap. These
swells in combination with wind waves will increase seas at Palau and
Yap Saturday night through Monday. Seas may also be a hazard to small
craft at Yap Sunday night through Wednesday

Chuuk is east of all the main activity as the circulation is moving
away from this location. However, enough low-level convergence
does exist east of the circulation to produce isolated showers and
thunderstorms there tonight. More low-level convergence will keep
skies mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms at Chuuk
Saturday through Sunday night. Winds and seas are expected to
increase the first half of the coming week but should not become
hazardous for small craft.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

W. Aydlett/Ziobro

Event by event

1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Marshall Islands

When
February 1, 12:00 AM GST to February 29, 12:00 AM GST
Where
Marshall Islands forecast zone
Reported by
Official NWS Observations

Dry conditions have persisted long enough, bringing Utirik and Wotje in the Marshall Islands to Severe Drought (D2) status.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, February 2020

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 893528.