Breezy onshore flow brought hazardous marine and beach conditions to South Florida Atlantic coast beaches. At a beach in Palm Beach, two people had to be rescued after becoming caught in a rip current.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Breezy onshore flow brought hazardous marine and beach conditions to South Florida Atlantic coast beaches. At a beach in Palm Beach, two people had to be rescued after becoming caught in a rip current.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 5, 12:24 PM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 124 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 .Aviation... With high pressure aloft, and a fairly stable atmosphere, today should only see some passing isolated SHRA, mainly on the Atlantic coast, although there could be some activity inland or along the Gulf coast. It looks too stable for thunderstorms, although there is a non zero chance an isolated storm or two could develop this afternoon. Moisture will move back into the area tomorrow, which will bring better chances for SHRA and TSRA, but still too uncertain for timing and location for mention in the TAFs ATTM. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 837 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020/ Update... This mornings sounding showing respectable PWATs, but not impressive, coming in around 1.7 inches. Otherwise, the 500mb temp is around -1C and the lapse rates are mostly less than 5 C/Km, with the mid level being 5.6C/Km. The CAPE is only 973J/Kg, and the NCAPE is .17 this morning. Over all, the sounding indicates probably just some passing showers moving onshore and quickly to the west, possibly not making it too far inland. This afternoon may see an uptick in coverage, but it is not looking favorable for any significant weather today. Prev Discussion... /issued 307 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020/ SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight... A quasi-zonal flow pattern should prevail across the eastern states with downstream ridging in the mid levels from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic. Tropical Storm Gamma is forecast to remain in the general vicinity of the northern Yucatan Peninsula while likely Tropical Storm Delta tracks into the northwest Caribbean Sea. In the lower levels, South Florida will remain sandwiched between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and lowered pressures across the Greater Antilles and Caribbean Sea in association with the aforementioned tropical systems. This should maintain a robust pressure gradient across the area resulting in breezy easterly winds. This is especially true across the coastal waters and Atlantic coastal interface where gusts to around 30 mph are possible. Model time-height projections and proximity soundings reveal drier and more subsident conditions aloft in association with the upper ridge, and this should help to cut down on convective coverage today. That said, sufficient lift, instability, and moisture are available for showers today and tonight with afternoon thunderstorms developing for inland areas this afternoon. The primary associated hazards should be lightning and gusty winds. Locally heavy rain is also possible, but the precipitation efficiency should be much less than on days prior. Temperatures should remain near seasonal averages with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows mostly in the 70s. Tuesday... Tropical Cyclone Delta is forecast to approach the far northwest Caribbean Sea and western Cuba late in the period. The broad mid- level ridge should remain in place over the northern Bahamas while weakening slightly over the eastern Gulf. An influx of deep moisture along the eastern side of the system should subsequently arrive from the south and overspread the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Our area appears to be along the eastern periphery of this deep moisture plume, so there is some uncertainty regarding the amount of deep moisture available for shower/thunderstorm development. That said, the current forecast guidance suggests sufficient moistening through the mid levels should take place during this period for a likely uptick in convective coverage across our area. In fact, the 05.00z deterministic GFS run has precipitable water values back in the 2.0 to 2.25 inch range over South Florida by Tuesday afternoon. Should this occur the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding could increase on Tuesday. Trended PoPs and QPF highest from west to east given a consensus of the latest model guidance but adjustments may be necessary depending upon the future track of Delta. Didn't stray from the consensus blends for temperatures, with near normal readings being the most likely outcome. However if the moisture plume works father east more cloud cover could keep afternoon highs down by a few degrees. Breezy conditions should continue. LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)... The latest computer model guidance show likely Tropical Cyclone Delta moving northwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. This would keep the system far enough to the west which would allow for some drier air to move into the region from the western Atlantic. The track and location of this system will need to continue to be watched closely, however, as if the track were to shift farther to the east, that would cause more moisture to move into the region with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. The current forecast represents a blend of the consensus models. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible each day with the greatest chances remaining over the interior and west coast with the east to southeasterly flow in place. This will continue to be closely monitored as the week progresses. By the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the latest computer model guidance begins to diverge as the models show likely Tropical Cyclone Delta somewhere over the northern Gulf Coast and then moving northeastward through the deep south and into the Tennessee Valley as a remnant low. As it moves northeastward, the models suggest that some of the moisture could trail back into the Florida Peninsula by the weekend which would increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. This is still highly uncertain as the models are in disagreement as far as timing and how much moisture actually trails back. The forecast represents a blend of the model guidance with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing to be possible each day during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. MARINE... Likely Tropical Cyclone Delta is forecast to move into the central or eastern Gulf later this week. While the system's center is forecast to remain west of our area, a period of higher winds and waves is possible for the Gulf waters depending upon the exact track of Delta. Keep up with forecast changes. At a minimum, cautionary conditions are expected for all local waters this week with breezy east to east-southeast winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, potentially becoming numerous over the Gulf waters at times. Lightning, waterspouts, and higher winds and waves are all possible in and near thunderstorms. BEACH FORECAST... Onshore flow will maintain the high rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches this week. The rip current risk may also increase for the Gulf beaches later this week as likely Tropical Storm Delta moves into the central or eastern Gulf. Higher than normal astronomical tides combined with increasing onshore flow could result in isolated coastal flooding of vulnerable areas along the Atlantic coast this week. If this risk increases a Coastal Flood Statement could be issued for these areas. PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 81 89 80 / 30 30 50 50 West Kendall 90 80 90 80 / 30 30 50 50 Opa-Locka 89 79 89 79 / 30 30 40 50 Homestead 88 80 88 79 / 30 40 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 89 81 89 80 / 30 30 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 87 80 88 79 / 30 30 40 40 Pembroke Pines 90 81 90 80 / 30 30 40 40 West Palm Beach 87 79 89 78 / 40 30 40 40 Boca Raton 89 80 90 79 / 30 30 40 40 Naples 90 77 90 78 / 40 20 70 40 MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. Today through Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...SPM && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... West Palm Beach 79 88 79 89 / 20 30 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 82 89 81 90 / 20 40 40 20 Miami 81 89 81 89 / 20 40 40 30 Naples 77 90 78 90 / 20 70 40 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && Aviation...13
Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 852 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 060100- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 852 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 ...High Risk of Rip Currents for the Atlantic Beaches... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. Thunderstorms: A few isolated thunderstorms are possible with lightning and heavy rainfall possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY An elevated rip current risk will exist for the Atlantic beaches. An elevated rip current risk may evolve for the Gulf beaches towards mid week. Given recent heavy rainfall flooding is possible for the east coast metro areas into at least mid week, especially for Palm Beach County. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report winds and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Town of Palm Beach Lifeguards rescued two people from rip currents during the afternoon hours at Midtown Municipal Beach. The victims were extremely exhausted, but refused transport to a hospital.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2020Every state in 2020This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, October 2020
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 919872.